Foreign Tuffett

I agree that it's difficult to identify companies that the analyst community at large has misunderstood. It's easier to search for gems among companies that have minimal analyst coverage. Go where there's less competition instead of striving to be the most clever in an industry full of smart, highly motivated people.

My thoughts exactly. The weather alone should keep it off the list. Also, Canada's secret sauce is maple syrup.

Thanks.

I would be careful here, as in these types of situations individual investors and small fund managers are disadvantaged versus big distressed debt players like Appaloosa and Baupost. Here are two anecdotes to try and illustrate what I mean: - When Enron filed bankruptcy Baupost had one analyst do nothing but Enron-related work for 4 years - Big players involved with Puerto Rico bonds pay specialized services like Puerto Rico Clearinghouse for expert analysis of relevant legal decisions and regulatory actions http://www.pr-clearing.com/ I'm sure similar resources are being devoted to PG&E's predicament. While I can only speak for myself, I don't have the expertise or resources to untangle this Gordian Knot.

Thanks for these smart thoughts. I suspect you are exactly right. I believe you used to follow Biglari Holdings closely, your current thoughts about the company would be much appreciated.

That's very interesting, thanks for posting the link. I really enjoyed the Netflix and Hulu documentaries.

Baupost provides this info to its investors via other channels.

Link doesn't work

+7.24% Things I did well: - Used volatility to my advantage. In other words, I did a fairly good job of buying low and selling high. The vast majority of companies/stocks aren't long term compounders, so I think being sensitive to valuation is very important - Used special situations (tender offers, merger arb, etc) and ex-US investments to diversify - My larger positions did materially better than my smaller positions - I ran a diversified portfolio all year, which increases the odds that I actually did some things right, and wasn't just lucky - While there were some unfortunate exceptions, I generally maintained price discipline when buying and selling instead of "chasing the tape" up and down - To paraphrase Lord Keynes: when the facts changed, I did a fairly good job of changing my mind. Things I need to improve: - At times I bought before doing sufficient due diligence. This isn't mere hindsight, I knew at the time that my research was insufficient, but bought anyway out of fear of missing out and/or impatience - I invested in low quality (tangible asset heavy, cyclical, industry in secular decline, etc) businesses without demanding a sufficient margin of safety. This year I plan to focus on higher quality businesses - I need to swing the bat a little harder when I see a fat pitch. I'm naturally risk adverse, so this is difficult for me to do - I generally find nano/micro/small cap companies much easier to understand and analyze than large and mega cap companies. This year I plan on doing a better job of "staying in my lane" - While my sample size is small, buy decisions based primarily or exclusively on quantitative criteria haven't worked very well for me. I need to focus on qualitative criteria too. - Focus on the underlying business and ignore the noise. Focus on the underlying business and ignore the noise. Focus on the underlying business and ignore the noise.

As long as you still have those ripped abs, bulging biceps, and huge pecs you'll be fine.

This is good advice.

LOL. That's a good one.

I know someone who dumpster dive for fruit juice. While I like a bargain, I like my dignity intact as well. If you are serious, we can never be friends. Dumpster diving is where I draw the line of people that I want to be friends with. Because if you are financially secure, it is simply not acceptable in my books. What if I was to tell you that I wear a snorkel when I dumpster dive? Does that make it more acceptable? In all seriousness, the dumpster diving thing was just a joke. I actually obtained my collection of fine wines by searching alongside railroad tracks for bottles discarded by vagrants.

:D This thread can be closed now. #valueinvestor4life

If you are a REAL VALUE INVESTOR, this is what you should do: 1) Dumpster dive outside grocery stores until you find some old, thrown out grapes 2) Smash the grapes 3) Mix your new grape juice with the cheapest vodka you can find 4) Drink

Is Comcast your internet provider? Maybe it doesn't want you investing in the competition. ;)

You bring up a good point, which is that many people confuse stock price fluctuations with the actual value of a business. The reality is that these things are positively correlated, but the correlation is, in the short to medium term, almost always less than 1. Psychologically, when a stock falls day-after-day, it's hard and painful to maintain the courage of conviction while also continuing to seek out new info. People tend to either give up or turtle up. I'm a card carrying member of the averaging down society, but it's only appropriate in certain situations. I have lots of thoughts on this, but it mostly boils down to controlling position sizing, thinking hard about the downside, and taking advantage of volatility. I will also trim positions on the way up, something that I rarely see mentioned. Finally, if you're still reading this you should go back and re-read writser's post in this thread, as it's very well thought out.

I thought the same thing! Always seemed obvious to me that the blog was primarily aimed at investors.

How are you estimating normalized earnings here? Same store sales are falling. Also, it doesn't look like they even generated sufficient operating income to cover interest expense last Q.

My portfolio is ready for anything: 10% cheap whiskey 10% cheap beer 10% gold 10% silver 10% platinum 10% weapons 10% various army surplus supplies 10% old issues of Playboy magazine 40% fresh water 30% MREs I do everything 150%

All interesting ideas, thanks Spekulatius.

This seems like a good theory, though it seems that for it to be the case the county seat would have had to have been on a significant railroad line. No, there were other highway systems before the Interstate Highway System was built. FWIW, the Disney movie "Cars" illustrates the basic dynamic really well.

FYI, It's probably more efficient to buy tencent through naspers. Depends on the likelihood the South African government expropriates a big chunk of Naspers' value.

Lots of run-down small towns were significantly more bustling when their courthouses were built. So the courthouses were built when they were "growth stocks" and now they're "value stocks" with excess real estate. What caused the decline? In many cases the building of the Interstate Highway System roadways diverted traffic flows elsewhere. This served to disadvantage their motels, gas stations, etc.

$GLRE is yet another example of the "long COBF threads = terrible stock performance" phenomenon