Foreign Tuffett

I looked at SXCL last week. I believe it is trading just over net cash at the moment. Their oil services businesses are strongly oriented towards the Bakken. This, in my mind, means they may be permanently impaired as E&Ps continue to move away from the Bakken in favor of the Permian, etc. I can't say that I'm a fan of their sports segment either

Also check out NWLI. 1/2 TBV. Around 8x PE. Despite all the huballo about interest rates 1/2TBV is a pretty good margin of safety. NWLI has traded well under TBV for years and the management seems uninterested in repurchasing shares or taking any other steps to do anything about it.

The video is interesting, but far from convincing given how anecdotal most of the "evidence" is. I do agree with the thesis though. The unprecedented amount of uneconomic investment, especially in real estate, is a sign that something in China has seemingly gone haywire. The signs can be seen outside of the China as well as within. I think most of us on this board are at least somewhat familiar with the debacle that is Vancouver residential real estate. Vancouver isn't the only place Chinese capital is causing issues. In Phnom Penh, Cambodia the amount of (seemingly unneeded) residential real estate towers being built by (mostly) Chinese companies is a common topic of conversation.

Assuming this is a serious question...... First of all you need to figure out how confident you are in your estimate of Trump winning the election. Then you need to figure out the odds of various market scenarios in a Trump presidency. Next you need to compare your estimates to what is already priced in to the market. Once you have all that figured out then you can trade accordingly. Good luck.

Looks like Amazon thinks the auto parts market is ripe for disruption. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/21/amazon-to-disrupt-auto-parts-industry-jefferies.html I don't see how Amazon gets past the "I need it right now" problem. Typically when people need a new car battery, spark plugs, etc they need it immediately, making even one or two day shipping too slow. Even something like motor oil, which may not be needed immediately, seems like a poor candidate for online shopping due to weight and possible hazardous nature.

Great post. I strongly suspect your point #1 is dead on. Given how much insider trading seems to still go on, trading on material nonpublic information must have been very, very common before insider trading laws were tightened.

Your comment hints at some of the criticisms of fiat currency that have been around for many decades (centuries?). Ultimately the success of a given fiat currency is dependent on people's confidence in it. This psychological underpinning makes some people very nervous.

Interesting - thanks for posting Thanks for the interesting idea. Where did you find the management comments on "gamechanging" customers and possible acquisitions?

I agree with the thesis of the article, at least insofar as it's that the future of the big consumer brands is likely to be less bright than the past. Ultimately mainstream razors, laundry detergent, cleaning supplies, crackers and chips, etc. etc. are largely fungible (aka there is little difference between store and name brands). I think consumers (especially younger consumers) are becoming more and more aware of this. I think in the longer term the market is likely to become increasingly bifurcated, with cheap store brands on one end, and expensive organic and specialty brands on the other. Anecdote: I live in anytown USA. ALDI and Trader Joe's, two grocery chains that sell next to no name brands, are becoming increasingly popular.

Maybe a good idea would be to list characteristics common to value traps? 1) Companies with assets that may be valuable, but aren't producing positive cash flow (LUK, SHLD, lots of other companies that trade under tangible book) 2) Companies that are facing macro headwinds (life insurers, banks) 3) Complex sum of the parts stories that the market has trouble appreciating (Leucadia again, Interactive Corp) 4) Companies with ineffective management 5) Companies with slowly shrinking revenue and/or operating profits The more I think about it, the concept of value traps seems problematic. Many of the companies commonly described as value traps seem to have little in common besides "the share price didn't go up when I wanted it to."

Scott,just wanted to say that you're far and away the most provocatively idiosyncratic poster on this forum. And I mean that as a compliment..... Now, since this is an investing forum: what are you currently long?

S&P 500 index fund? Why don't you go all in on VRX instead?

I don't think it's possible to get the full story based only on the 13F filings. Ultimately there are a lot of different things that could be going on, so I would advise against drawing actionable conclusions.

What a cluster**** Also, this: http://www.vendoralley.com.php5-10.dfw1-1.websitetestlink.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/ex_unicorn.jpg?w=300