Vish_ram

Thanks thowed & PJM. This is what I've shortlisted for further research. RELIANCE TCS Infosys Hindustan lever HDFC ICICI SBI CRISIL CARE Asian paints Glaxo Cipla Sun Pharma Aurobindo pharma Lupin Divis lab Dr Reddy Torrent pharma Procter & Gamble Hygiene .. Pfizer ABB Adani power Tata power Power grid L&T Adani ports Siemens Dabur Dmart Brittania Nestle ITC

Thanks guys. I'm in the process of building a coffee can portfolio. Starting with CRISIL, Reliance indus etc Please share any good picks for 10-20 year buy/hold strategy.

Anyone here investing directly in India? I finally got my demat trading account setup.

I've been doing some hiking last few years. 1 ) Haute Route - Switzerland 10 days/120 miles total 2) Everest base camp ~ 9 days 3) Inka trail 4 days 4) Mt Elbert, Co, 14er Planning patagonia & possibly Mt Fuji next year

“Over fifteen years to 1998, on a pre-tax basis the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund outperformed 94% of general equity mutual funds and 97% on a post-tax basis. The post-tax average difference in annual performance was 4.2% in favor of index funds.” ~John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Hedge funds have done worse. Shamelessly clone the index and prosper. The risks doing cloning are 1) cloning a star hedge fund manager who is past his/her prime. 2) cloning a star hedge fund manager's dud stocks

Last year was horrendous (-15% for P3 fund, +1.5% for P4). Underperforming S&P by 55% cumulative over last 15% years and yet staying in the business is an achievement in itself.

Bitcoin will end up being digital gold, an asset rather than a currency. It doesn't have ability to handle high vol transactions. When BTC was around 250 I considered it seriously but passed on it. I thought that the government would shut it down as it threatens USD/Fed etc. I was wrong. This is more like actions taken to control climate change. Humans cannot act until it is too late. Eventually we might have a new world order with Fed's power seriously diminished. You may see talks of crypto tax to ease the transition. You might even have a consortium of crypto whales who might create "Whale reserve". This capital could be used to stimulate the economy if needed, similar to what Fed does now.

In many African countries, people are keeping their money in crypto to escape massive inflation. This is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Just people taking the control back. Even if one kind of cryptocurrency fails, a similar one will eventually win. It is a threat to status-quo.

To back to Parsad;s original question about systemic risk: Crypto undercuts Fed's ability to inflate or provide liquidity. Fed's tightening action for cooling down is like pulling on a string. The transmission effect is immediate and direct. The Fed's action post or during recession is like pushing on a string. The effect takes a while to trickle down. Now imagine a case when whole country is gung-ho on crypto and Fed is injecting liquidity. This inflates, but more assets go into crypto to protect against inflation. This reduces Fed's power. The "Screw savers, reward risk takers" mode to prop up the economy is undercut. So economy may takes a whole lot of time to recover. This is a systemic risk. Huge concentration of (crypto) assets in hands of few folks creates income inequality. If transfer of wealth to low-tax country is only a click away, Govt's ability to tax the rich is undercut.

I wrote this several months back and shared it with my friends: (some of you may find it useful; i've tiny amounts of btc, blok, mstr) ---------------------------- First a disclaimer, I’m not an expert on cryptocurrencies. Some popular cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Dogecoin etc. This write up is more a stream of consciousness than a primer. I have gone through the five stages of acceptance with regards to cryptocurrency – Denial, Recognition, Resignation, Acceptance and Embrace. I only own a token amount. Cryptocurrencies are undoubtedly the product of the internet. Let’s delve into the basic definitions of certain terms to understand this phenomenon. Cryptography – this is a technique or a mechanism to send information securely. The tools used for this purpose have changed over the centuries. In the crypto currency world, they might employ computational methods that use public & private keys to keep information secure. The exact mechanism of how the cryptography is utilized is beyond the scope of this article. Currency – is a medium of exchange for goods and services. A currency can be anything that is legally blessed by those in power. In olden days, seashells, salt, gold coins etc were used as a currency. In modern times, the paper currencies are popular. Sometimes a currency may not have any inherent value other than to be used as medium of exchange. A gold coin when used as a currency may find alternate uses as a raw material for making jewelry. A currency like Bitcoin is a de-centralized one (US dollar is printed by US Treasury and Federal reserve controls the money supply). It means that no single authority controls it. Asset – something that is of a value. A currency can be an asset, it is however a depreciating asset. The value of almost all currencies lose value over time due to inflation. Some good examples of an asset are Land, Cattle, Automobile, Patent, Trademarks, stocks, bonds etc. Some of these assets appreciate in value when measured in terms of the local currency. A land may appreciate in value due to inflation or due to more productive uses (cultivation, building a factory, residential or commercial buildings). Why does the world need a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC)? 1) Bitcoin was originally created as a currency to facilitate ecommerce. The current payment network used by the likes of Mastercard, Visa etc. are just archaic, complex & expensive. Think of the difference between Email (Bitcoin) and Snail mail (legacy payment networks). Instead of taking days for money to be transferred using current payment network, you can transfer money using Bitcoin in a matter of seconds. You can use much lower denominations using BTC. One BTC = 100 Million Satoshi. You can send micropayments, a few Satoshis (fraction of a penny) to another party. Bitcoin as a currency is a failure at the moment as the current infrastructure cannot handle the transaction volumes that are routinely handled the current payment networks. At the moment, the rationale for adopting bitcoin has shifted from currency to a store of value, i.e. an asset. 2) Bitcoin as an asset. How do you value an asset? John Burr Williams wrote the seminal book “The theory of investment value” to determine the intrinsic value of any asset. He gave this cute poem. A cow for her milk A hen for her eggs, And a stock, by heck, For her dividends. An orchard for fruit, Bees for their honey, And stocks, besides, For their dividends. Fundamentally, a Bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency) does not produce any dividends or income. Unlike a physical object that is unique, there is no copyright behind the Bitcoin code. It is all open-source. I can theoretically copy the entire Bitcoin code and create a new cryptocurrency called BiteMecoin (Bytecoin is already taken) and release it into the world. How does one cross the bridge to embrace Bitcoin as an asset? Look no further than the art world to understand this human psychology. There are thousands of poor & hungry artists who toil in total obscurity. A few of them get discovered first by art critics and then embraced by rich folks who act as their patrons. As the artist gains in popularity, the price of their artwork exponentially goes up. It is even better if they are dead as there would be no new artwork in circulation. A limited supply & increasing popularity coupled with the firm belief that an artist’s work will gain in value creates a self-fulling prophesy. Out of tens of thousands of budding artists, the system can only support a few (Rembrandt, Picasso, Van Gogh’s etc.). Even though we have hundreds of cryptocurrencies, in the long run only a few will survive (probably BTC, ETH & Doge) The Bitcoin has a limited supply (21 Million in total supply by year 2140, ~18 Million in current circulation), growing popularity because of first mover advantage and enough servers worldwide to mine the bitcoin. The miners provide the physical computer servers that keep records of the transactions. The miners are rewarded in Bitcoins for performing such a service. If you have a new cryptocurrency and not enough people to provide the infrastructure, then it would die in its infancy. Then there is this Metcalfe’s law. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system. As you add more and more users to the Bitcoin system, the value of the network and hence the Bitcoin as an asset will rise in value. We are in the early innings of Bitcoin adoption. The hedge fund, pension fund and other institutional money are slowly embracing Bitcoin. It’ll be decades before it is fully embraced. Gold is traditionally used as an asset to provide protection against inflation. The value of Gold in circulation is $7.5 Trillion. BTC is valued today at $1.04T. In many ways, Bitcoin is infinitely more valuable than Gold. You cannot send Gold over the internet, nor use it for ecommerce. You cannot exchange one millionth of an ounce of Gold for a cup of coffee. The transportation, storage & protection costs of gold are very high. 3) The real value of a de-centralized asset/currency. One of the fundamental forces of the human nature that has shaped our destiny in the last several centuries is the yearning for Freedom. This feeling is so universal and transcends race, culture, time and sex. In politics, Kingdoms that have lasted centuries have been overthrown. The suffragettes fought for women’s right to vote. The Freedom has brought us democracy & right to self-rule. The transition from oppression to freedom has never been smooth. The US fought the British to gain independence and civil war to free slaves. The one freedom that even the citizen of a democratic country does not have is the control over the value of currency and its purchasing power. In USA, the central bank “Federal Reserve Board” (FED) control the monetary policy. Have you ever wondered why the interest rate you got in your savings and checking accounts have dropped repeatedly in the past decade? In early 2000’s, I used to receive 5% interest in my ING Savings account. The FED has the dual mandate – maintain low inflation and adequate unemployment rate. In order to accomplish the dual mandate, the FED has several policy tools at its disposal. One such tool is the ability to control the interest rate charged by one bank to the other (Discount rate). They also control the reserve requirements of banks. The rates set by FED impact indirectly the rates you pay for mortgage, student loans, auto loans and several others. Their toolset has been greatly expanded in recent years to give greater autonomy to control the interest rate and the value of the currency. An elderly couple living on a pension (fixed income) in Any Town, USA has no say when they get punished with low interest rates in their savings account. When a country wages a war by printing currency (it could be USA or a tinpot dictator in Africa), the citizens have no control to stop the depreciation of their currency or other assets. This is a currency/asset oppression that no one wants to talk about. A cryptocurrency like Bitcoin is an anti-dote to such currency oppression. Several decades ago, US followed the Bretton woods system that pegged US dollar to Gold. The system ultimately collapsed as nations wanted to pursue an inflationary monetary policy. In US, the expansion of monetary base in relation to GDP is just astounding. In plain terms, the value of your currency has depreciated. An inflationary monetary policy has many winners and losers. The Government is a major winner as their debt obligations are paid out in inflated currency. The equity (stock) owners benefit as they borrow today and pay it off in the future with money that is worth less. The savers, pensioners, collectors of social security etc. are the losers. The inflation erodes the purchasing power of the money that they hold. Now imagine a monetary system that is based on Bitcoin. The Governments tax receipts (income) and spending (expenses) will be in BTC. The ability to inflate will not exist. US Treasury has to balance the book. The Federal deficit will be zero. The people will have more say when a Government embarks on unnecessary wars or on some boondoggles. Today, in several countries sporting high inflation (Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc), the citizens are quickly converting their fiat currencies to Bitcoin to protect its value. A de-centralized currency brings power back to the owners of capital. This can reshape the politics and society in ways we cannot imagine now. What is the future of cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC)? If the major powers (particularly in the west) do not ban it, then the future is very bright. In the senate, an astute Senator gave a speech asking for banning BTC as it threatens the hegemony of USD. Bitcoin will gain traction as an asset. Once the technological hurdles are crossed, the use as currency will become mainstream. There are cafes in the world that accept Bitcoin. There are tens of thousands of ATM machines that accept them. The value of BTC will gain as world GDP expands, network effects multiply, and fiat currencies get displaced. Now many companies like MicroStrategy, Square etc. are keeping their treasury cash in BTC. I won’t be surprised if it crosses $1MM in less than 15 years. The prevailing wisdom is that you should keep at least 1% of your total assets in a crypto like BTC. What are the risks of cryptocurrency like Bitcoin (BTC)? The cryptocurrency can be hacked. The underlying technology called blockchain can become obsolete and get replaced. It has been estimated that quantum computers can use public key to find out the private key of BTC and can impact around a third of the value of BTC. A new cryptocurrency of the future that has better attributes can win the popularity contest and people may just abandon the existing ones.

RIP. The last decade is a tough one for high profile value investors. Not many can escape with a pivot to compounders, cinches, finches and 100 baggers.

Growing pies (i own growth too, even while practicing value investing) Discounted pies (crappy position, but cheap) Heavily Discounted pies (very crappy position, but cheap) Compounders Hidden moats (only I understand the moat) Growth engine 4-5X in 5 years. (don't bail out on me) 8-10x in 6-8 years (please don't bail out on me)

Increase in money supply should be viewed in relation to velocity of money. The velocity has been dramatically decreasing. Given the backdrop of dramatic productivity gains due to technology, decreasing population growth, greater consumption of services compared to goods, dramatic capacity expansion in commodity production (during first decade of this century), we are having lower real rates, lower fed funds rate, lower inflation, lower velocity & increasing money supply. The gold bulls have totally misread the situation and are purely engaged in mental masturbation. The so called money printing hasn't increased inflation. It has only gone to support existing Treasury's mandatory spending. Think of a couple with several kids (school tuition, books, clothing spending), supporting their parents (social security, medicare).. Now if wife is unemployed & husband works part time, then their rich uncle (Fed) uses his credit card to loan some money to this couple. The couple is not splurging on anything, just maintaining their usual spending without missing a beat.

The one with rapid drop (#3 from top) had much higher force to start with, but didn't have sustained force after the initial one. Think of hedge funds who show rapid returns during early years (with tiny AUM) and then fail to show sustained momentum. The middle one has the right amount of early force and sustained momentum. To compound you need sustained returns until you get to the finish line. How does this relate to compound interest? I don’t see it.

Yes value investing beautifully works - for the owners of the value funds. Chou associates USD returned 0.9% compounded for last 15 years. Yet investors have $133MM in assets in this fund. The fund collected $1,345,763 in fees. Who are these dumb people? Quit being a value investor, become a owner of a value themed fund. That’s where the money is.

The most important thing in meditation is having the right mind set. In our day to day life, we are ego-driven (ego is not used in a pejorative way, but a sense of self, esteem, sense of I). We attribute our success/failures to self. We get elated when we accomplish something and get upset if things dont go as we had planned. It all goes back to the sense of I/ego/self. In meditation mindset, the focus is on suspending this ego self. This is done by not activating the left brain. When you dont focus on past & future and just focus on the present (by observing breath, sensations etc), your activity is more on right brain. The default mode network is less active. So the mindset is all about “not having expectations”, “not expecting results”, etc. Expectations/results driven are classic attributes of ego/self. You work hard and want to get the rewards. This mindset is detrimental when it comes to meditation. The right mindset is about letting go. 1) you’ve to constantly bring attention to breath, just observe any sensations. If mind wanders, bring it back slowly. If still wanders, do conscious deep breathing 2) consistency is the key, you’ve to do it everyday for weeks to see good benefits Meditation is only something nice recently done. I did a 30-day guided meditation and now I have been doing 10 minutes a day off and on - but I don't really notice any difference between the days I do and don't meditate. I'm primarily focusing on my breathing and trying to get to the point where it's less focus and more second nature + empty relaxation of the mind, but am concerned I'm approaching it wrong if I'm not noticing a difference when I'm not doing it. Any advice for a newb?

I had a real hard time sitting for more than 15 mins before attending Vipasanna. Go to dhamma.org, book for a 10 day course. There you’ll be asked to do 11 hour meditation for 10 days. It is a good reset of your brain. They give you free food, accommodation etc. I wish I got this advice when I was in my 20’s. Any youtube video, books, tutorials?

The best of all is meditation. When I used to do for an hour a day, it was just bliss all day. Nowadays I do for 30-40 mins and it is still great.

The real concern I’ve is that we are using the Fed (monetary tools) to put a bandaid on structural issues (Curtailing growth in entitlement spending & others). It is sickening to see that we cannot balance the books in a booming economy (until Jan 2020). Giving tax cuts without offsetting spending is just pernicious. A couple of things that Trump has done is a step in the right direction - fixing trade agreements, preventing IP theft, bringing back US manufacturing etc. Both the parties have killed the middle class. If middle class is alive and well ,we would have good tax revenues and we may not have to use Fed’s credit card. Let me flip the question: IF Fed had a limited QE, what would happen? This would be even more deflationary. Treasury would have to borrow from public’s savings & from foreigners. They would demand higher interest rate. THe amount of T’s borrowing would significantly drop. They have to make painful cuts in social security, medicare, military spending etc. This would start a vicious cycle of deflation. If Treasury is willing to issue at higher interest rate, then they have to borrow more to just pay the interest. The economic output would drop further, reducing tax receipts. This further pushes us to more deflation. Just like legislators fail to do their job in enacting laws without ambiguity pass the buck to Supreme courts, they are using Fed to fix structural issues. No wonder they have the lowest approval ratings.

You are right, my comment was more about how he didnt turn to drugs or other vices. On social side, Maybe he was more on asperger side Dude, he didn't let it rule his life? His wife left him and his kids talked about how distant he was growing up.

Buffett's greatest legacy is about how to live ones life to the fullest. How to not let money go into your head, change your traits, habits, virtues etc. He was able to keep a healthy distance to money and not let it rule his life. When Gandhi was asked, what is your message? he replied "My life is my message". The same thing probably applies to Buffett too.

His portfolio should have lost 40-50% in Q1-2020. Alliance data, Spectrum, Cimpress etc lost more than 50%. I cannot think of any value investor who has outperformed the S&P 500 in last 10 years. I hope he feels better

Towards the end of the bull market runs, everyone starts advising Buffett. The same thing happened in 1999 & 2007. History repeats.

I found that I had the best sleep when I was on Keto diet. if I wanted, I could sleep for 9 hours. if you are struggling with weight loss, Keto is a good place to start. I lost 22 pounds in 3 months, going from BMI of ~26.5 to 23.8. Vegetarians find Keto hard, but there are lots of options. PM me if you want to know more.

There are so many things folks can learn from your post. BTW I don't consider myself as a value investor on a strict low P/E stuff, but try to ascertain value based on cash flows. 1) first you didn't say you were practicing value investing, you said you were learning. Lesson 1: You probably have unrealistic expectations. Maybe you were trying to beat Buffett's partnership returns. Name a high profile value investor who has performed well in last 5 years? 2) " though I am probably not beating the market." There is no rule or law that says practicing value investing will beat the market returns in any given period. You may under perform the market for 10 years and then outperform. The father of value investing Graham made bulk of his money on Geico. 3) The worst instinct an investor can have is to try to buy at the technical bottom and sell it at the top. I stopped beating myself up for leaving money on the table by selling it early. 4) Buffett has been great in giving investment advice. His worst advice probably is the concentration of portfolio. God knows how many financial lives have been ruined by this advice. Bless his heart. Money + portfolio concentration + caliber & temperament less than that of Buffett's = DISASTER & RUIN. If I have to offer you one advice, it will be to have 4 buckets. 1) Bucket 1: Non-trading assets - land, rental income from properties, etc 2) Bucket 2: Passive index funds, target life funds, QQQ, IBB etc 3) Bucket 3: High quality stocks/sectors: (20 punch card portfolio) MA, V, BRK, BAC, AMZN, APPL, MCO, SPGI... 4) Bucket 4: Speculative stocks, practice your value investing here.