Vish_ram

AMP - buyback coupled with revenue growth. Wonderful combination.

As a money manager one thing I've noticed is that there is a lot of inertia with clients. 90% of them aren't quick to leave as they rationalize poor performance. Clients will attribute some of the poor perf to their bad luck like timing. Managers go thru boom & bust cycles. Many clients generally come during boom and more during the peak of the boom. The selective focus (look here, and not there) goes a long way in retaining. Even for a very bad manager, there's this Herbalife phenomenon. Herbalife goes to a country with full of promise, grabs a rag tag of distributors. Few early ones do well and in the end majority does poorly. After a few years, Herbalife exits the country and goes to a new one. The cycle repeats. A fund manager with a steady stream of publicity can attract for funds for decades despite very poor perf. This is why I like businesses like AMP & LPLA. People also form an attachment, a bond/affinity.

Most logical thing for Trump to do is 1. ETF for TRUMP coin 2. Make it part of strategic reserve 3. Mandate/Punish/Reward asset managers of state pension funds for owning this meme 4. Slowly replace USD with TRUMP. 5. Use this coin for getting bribes from local/foreign. TikTok will buy $5B of meme as “Trump treasury” in exchange of lifting the ban. 6. “Trump treasury” Is part of Tier 1 capital ratio. 7. Use TRUMP for all cross border transfers (bankrupt Ripple) 8. All US aid to other countries will be in TRUMP coin Economic takeover of USA is complete.

@gfp @Blake Hampton you guys are talking past each other. Both govt and fed are part of the problem. Yes, Fed reserves doesn't cause inflation and goes into Banks balance sheet. But the action of Fed buying Govt debt (instead of people buying with their savings) allows deficit to balloon as big as it has gotten. When Fed does the open market ops and buys all debt securities and sets rates directly or indirectly, they create an environment that makes it easy for Govt to borrow, and hence increase the deficit. Fed sprinkles gasoline everywhere and Govt (Treasury) lights up everything. You need both their actions to cause fire and you cannot just blame treasury for torching.

You've hit the nail on the head. Just do this inversion. In an ideal world, the owner of a $1 note should see the benefits of productivity increase (the small relentless force in existence for 1000s of years). $1 should be more and more valuable each day, each year. This is natural currency deflation. 1) People falsely link currency deflation with economic deflation. You can still have a growing economy, wealth with a currency that is appreciating. 2) Economists incorrectly argue that people postpone spending with currency deflation and that full employment cannot be achieved with that. Wrong. Basically this is theft by Govt. BTC fixes this. For BTC haters, killing it is easy. Fix the monetary devaluation, deficit issues.

Wisdom = returns; when someone posts we’ve to discount where they’re in this graph

Is there an updated Shiller PE that accounts for increased Fed driven liquidity, reduced normalized 10-Year Real Interest Rate, higher net profit margins, higher net ROIC for S&P....

I remember the idiot Grantham at GMO was talking about profit margins mean reverting 10+ years ago. He is still waiting. What’s up with these senile permabears who are past their prime and keep yapping the same stuff?

Using an one dimensional metric like P/E is insane. 1. Growth isn’t part of this value equation 2. ⁠ROE dictates multiples. It isn’t there 3. ⁠Platform cos demand higher valuation, ain’t captured in P/E. Having said that, yes there’s an overvaluation in everything. Blame it on Fed printing. US is the only game in town with growth. So capital is flowing here

Unlike all assets, what the no-coiners don't get it is this: BTC is a self-fulfilling prophecy and success begets success. It requires a different way of thinking to understand this phenomenon. You've to branch off from the start. You can't go down the traditional route and then rationalize your way to this path.

Au contraire, learning from the Masters of this craft. Ban the bashers!

Using psychological techniques can be lucrative. affinity to legends - you get instant trust, assumption of competence. quote legends frequently. Vocal proponent of successful methods (like of Nick Sleep) - assumption that you know of this and so you’re a practitioner. affinity to value investing - value investors are self-righteous about the superiority of this method. It is generally an excuse for underperforming the benchmark (you can perennially say that benchmark has bloated overvalued stocks). reciprocity - give a free pen and ask for managing your life savings Philanthropy - signifies wealth. People prefer that their money manager is a wealthy self made person. story telling - even a caveman loves stories. A great narration signifies command over subject matter. now package it all together! You got success.

He has experience spinning 20 years of underperformance. A picture with Munger can go a long way and long time.

Another angle. Imagine if all wealth is stored in a form that is universal, portable and unhackable! stocks of aapl, cost doesn’t fit the bill. The wealth creation of these goods/services producing cos will be stored in BTC.

BTC ETFs will split when prices goes too high. there are many tricks up the sleeve of BTC proponents 1. slowly increase allocation % of portfolios 2. keep pushing swf and others to own it 3. provide more covered call BTC securities with varying degrees of upside/downside protection. we are at the end of the beginning of crypto adoption

Here's why Hussman is dumb. Just comparing gross value add to market value misses so many variables in the equation a) profit margin - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A466RD3Q052SBEA look how margin has dramatically improved. The reason is simple. Techs have dominated the space and have higher margins b) Growth - the equation doesn't consider growth. higher growth justifies higher valuation. Techs have higher growth rates, dominate the world with winner take all approach. With AI, automation, cloud etc the domination will continue. c) ROIC - these firms need low capital to grow unlike traditional non-techs. Higher the ROIC, ceteris paribus, higher the valuation Grantham is also another low IQ guy. He was preaching for years (a decade ago) that profits will mean revert. Look what had happened.

True. Finding a great advisor is a great skill. Some find it by luck too. It takes intellect to know someone's intellect. I'm an advisor and I know how hard the game is. we've delivered outsized results for our clients. I would say out of 300, maybe 1 or 2 know believed in us more than we did. The rest just followed our track record. My general point is, there are tons of folks who do horribly at investing. I try to steer them towards VOO VIG VTI VGT QQQ etc. The $ losses are just astounding.

So @wachtwoord you do your own surgery, plough the fields to make food, do your own plumbing, roofing? Kudos.

What I find fascinating is that the BTC skeptics have done minimal reading on the subject of economics, monetary actions, human behavior, role of Fed/Govt etc, perfunctory at best. They want answers that they expect will seep thru layers of ignorance and make it click. Life doesn’t work that way. if someone had read several books on the subject and then asks appropriate Q I can then understand. subject of BTC isn’t something like doing DCF. Man with a hammer syndrome. This puzzle is like a lock. Some have to try a million keys and others just a key or two.

Bitcoin - Store of human economic wealth. For everything else you’ve fiat

It is wheel, fire, oil, steam & IC engine, electronics, internet, AI, innovation, human ingenuity, US constitution, free trade, low taxes, Guns & God, Hope combined.

I did both CFA and MBA. I was an industry outsider (Engineering background) without any knowledge of economics, finance, accounting etc. I’ve been an investment advisor of my own firm I had cofounded. on the plus side it adds a ton of credibility. It adds to your confidence, if I put in effort I can easily understand anything. without the formal approach I may have lacked the discipline to learn them all. All knowledge is cumulative. It sure has helped me with the returns. As most know knowledge, intellect, education may account for 10% of returns.

Bitcoin standard