Vish_ram

BMI

Just my 2 cents 1) 99.99% of all stocks go to zero in the long enough time frame. 2) Keep the $ in broad index funds (total market, intl total etc) to cover all the needs 3) Own anything else for your wants 4) As you grow old you’ll realize that the world is changing fast and your mental faculties are in decline. #2 keeps you from becoming poor You don’t get killed by what you don’t know, you get killed by what you know for sure that ain’t so

What’s the new Harvest natural resources (HNR)?

I would love to hear some travel agent recommendations for Cairo/Nile cruise.

Went to Portland OR for legal M Mushrooms. Just a fantastic spiritual journey.

of course “Lira Billionaire" Pabrai. PIF4 is lagging almost 700% cumulative to S&P since last 20 years.

AI is revenue component for some (NVDA ASML …), cost side (LMND DUOL HIMS SPOT NFLX AXON …) for some and both (GOOGL AMZN ORCL MSFT …) for few. Even if AI bubble bursts for those that have it in cost side will tremendously benefit.

What nonsense is Spier spewing? LLMs don’t provide conviction, temperament, patience, critical thinking, future prediction/forecasting, crowd behavior, consumer behavior etc. It does provide synthesis of existing info. Fact is LLMs are available to all and levels the playing field. Internet didn’t kill value investing. Value investors killed value investing.

Once you get confident in your ability to compound, based on age, you may end up growing it 2X to 50X. most of folks here will end up spending hardly 5% of their peak net worth. as you age your interest to spend drops and material things bring less joy.

One of them has a very high dispersion in outcome (total loss to high return and in-between). such a process/result generally is incompatible with insurance float mgmt.

Finally visited Taj Mahal (Agra, India). Beautiful, clean and pristine. Delhi-Agra expressway was too good, just like in US. Munnar & Thekkadi (Kerala) was great too. My cousins in Mumbai spend 4-5 hours/day on commute. I dont know how people live and work in India. Happy to have bailed out. India is a great country and the only problem is that there are too many Indians (who lack civic sense, urban planning etc among million other things). If only 10% of Indians pride be converted to a useful resource, they can match up to China.

Most important thing about secondary incomes is that make sure you can exit if you don’t like it, it should align with your mindset, values and skill set.

Alpenwild is bit upscale. Never had any complaints. Guides did a terrific job.

Weather was mostly manageable. We had light rain on 1 day, warmer on another. Rest very pleasant in the hills. we were told that the peak of the mountain had temp go above zero for first time (mid of last week). locals say that the glaciers have receded compared to years/decades ago.

one easy thing is to get CFP and do financial planning. you can charge a decent sum. If you get a good client base, you can become a RIA (get Series 65 etc). I went the harder route of getting CFA, MBA etc, still was worth it. Secondary income stream became a full time job.

Beijing - Great Wall & other attractions

Stayed in real beds, Decent food (i’m a veg). On average each day I did 11 miles (2500-3500 ft climb). I booked it through flashpackerconnect. Alpenwild is a bit upscale ( I had done Haute route and Dolomites with them).

Really enjoyed the TMB (Tour du Mont Blanc) 6 day hike. IMG_9760.MOV

Think in terms of layers. Bottom layer is composed of real estate, broad index funds (VTI VOO), dividend funds (VIG SCHD etc). This should meet your 70% of retirement needs. Next is sub-sector funds depending on risk/return (XLF to XLK…VUG etc). This should meet 25% of your needs. Next is extremely safe stocks (BRK etc). All this should cover 100%. On top of it, take crazy risk on multiple things. Even with 100% capital loss on one, you sleep ok. If you do really good on one, take some capital and add to bottom most layer.

Hiking Mont Blanc (TMB) this June end. I did Dolomites last year and Haute Route 7 years ago

Probably HOOD

Now bogleheads own crypto/BTC with COIN inclusion in S&P 500. You can run but can’t hide

Even with 10% tariffs we will end up having reduced trade, lower consumption and higher prices. the next 3 months will be interesting - empty shelves, higher inflation etc. What would the Fed do for stagflation?

A. from my friend who is in Global procurement. 1. One part with unit price $54 was defective , to send it back it’ll cost them $80+, so company is scrapping it and absorbing the cost 2. ⁠subassembly for a major unit (15% of cost) comes from China. Rest made and assembled here and exported everywhere. Now final assembly and testing will be done in Germany. Even Boeing might assemble outside for export orders. B. At my friends firm where they make some electronic devices that are exported to Canada etc, a chunk of production is shifting to Mexico. It makes perfect sense. You avoid tariff impacts on both cost and revenue side.

If you’ve an open mind I recommend listening to “Telepathy tapes” podcast