spartansaver

A lot of international companies start that way on their statement of cash flows. I think it's somewhat discretionary.

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays!

I purchased yesterday. Spoke to several Schwab brokers who seemed confident everything would be good. Always a chance they're wrong. I took the plunge and made it a big purchase. Tendered at $440. I don't want to remain an owner if the tender falls flat.

Go through the 70's letters. Inflation wasn't great for insurers. From what I remember, they had a tough time keeping pricing up with claims.

So much of life is how you view it (nicely done AWS). Here's a link to a guy who just couldn't let it go. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/13/half-a-billion-in-bitcoin-lost-in-the-dump

Aging population seems like a catch all for everything Japan. It may have had an impact, but I’m not completely sold. On a separate theory, wabuffo has stated that he believes higher tax rates lead to higher inflation and the opposite holds true. In Japan’s case the income tax rate fell from over 50% to slightly over 30% over the past 25 years. I wonder what else may be at work.

Why has Japan had little to no inflation for the past 25 years despite running a meaningful deficit during that period?

BABA Leaps 100 strike

I'd reiterate LC. Listen to the practitioners who've made money investing, not the MBA's who get wealthy by managing money.

I'm asking SD if I'm understanding what he wrote. I'm not sure that's what he meant and I was hoping he might be able to clarify.

I just want to make sure I understand you correctly. The bond market is saying that the central banks have everything under control. In order to believe that they have it under control you need to believe that inflation remains low. The aggregate demand equation is a useful equation for understanding inflation? To believe that inflation remains low you need to believe that a combination of: private investment declines, net exports becomes more negative, or government expenditures decline; all relative to the rise in consumption. If this does not hold true the bond market is wrong?

This scenario sounds like its agreeing with my logic, it's just slightly more gloomy. Unless I'm missing something.

In a simplified way this is how my logic works.. 10 people on an island have $100 of currency (USD). That currency is used to purchase all goods and services. One day a guy with a computer invents 10 new currency (BTC) The people on the island start to accept BTC for goods and services, and an exchange rate of 5 BTC per USD is established The amount of USD equivalent currency on the island competing for the same amount of goods and services is higher. So the dollar is losing purchasing power to a new currency because the goods and services remain the same. What's wrong with this logic?

Every business valuation starts with the premise that somebody values the goods that the company sells. A cigarette company has cash flows because somebody is willing to pay $X for a carton of cigarettes. The cigarette carton on its own has some type of intrinsic value despite not being a cash generating asset. Same with almost any asset. In some cases the intrinsic value on an individual basis is largely tied to habits/needs (cigarettes, food, housing, etc.), while in other cases it is tied more tied to psychology (btc, gold, etc.). I would prefer to invest based off of intrinsic values of items that are easier to determine (habits/needs), but at the end of the day, every item has some intrinsic value. Just a different way of saying I agree with you.

As the market capitalizations of crypto appreciate, I was wondering if this means that additional currency is getting brought online. If merchants become indifferent between accepting a dollar or accepting a cryptocurrency, does this mean that the amount of currency chasing goods and services is increasing? Am I missing something?

I thought this was interesting. On this apartment website, the dorms he designed at UofM are the highest rated on campus dorms. https://www.veryapt.com/Apartments-L7646-ann-arbor-central-campus?loc=&price_0min=&price_0max=&price_1min=&price_1max=&price_2min=&price_2max=&price_3min=&price_3max=&screen=&lat=&lng=&minimize_finder=&show_map=&sort_by=user_rating

Fiat currencies didn’t replace gold as an investment asset. Why would digital currencies be different?

What do you mean more liquid? I've started to think of gold much more as currency (cash) and if I had to pick one currency, why not pick the one that has a history of over 2k years. I tend to hold large amounts of cash and swing hard at my favorite ideas. I've performed well investing this way, however, I'm wondering if it makes sense for my cash to be in USD or gold. I don't have BRK cash levels so I can convert my gold to USD with little effort.

Best of luck in all your other games this season.

I've been wondering why I have any cash relative to holding gold. For those of you that have a meaningful cash holding, why hold any USD relative to gold?

Should be a good one, you guys have beaten some good teams this year.

Nothing related to investing. Just happy to see my Spartans pull through. Go green!

I don't have a dime in crypto and no plans to. But I have wondered if this is a risk to currencies as we know them. With the printing presses running at full steam is the foolish person the one who still believes in a dollar/euro/etc.? When the tech bubble happened, it didn't mean that all the tech was bad. Same could hold that we are in a bubble, but not everything within the bubble is wrong.

Larry Summers recommended this. Essentially provides a different way of measuring slack in the labor market. Part of the analysis demonstrates that labor market tightness is similar to the 60s. I've been wondering what incentive Summers has stick his neck out about inflation. He's going against his party, and making bold statements which if you're wrong can make you look like an idiot. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2021/october/is-american-rescue-plan-taking-us-back-to-1960s/

The psychology of it all is scary. Doesn't fit well into a model. One day people may wake up and think a lot harder about how all of their bills are going up. Then reflexivity takes hold. Maybe it doesn't take hold, but in current times it seems like there is little upside to defending against deflation (and a lot of downside), and a lot up upside to defending against inflation (and not a lot of downside).