spartansaver

I think the most interesting part is that if you're certain that it is a great manager (almost impossible to be certain), the price differential becomes enormous. I think it really drills home the point when you look at certain examples (Tom Murphy (Great) vs. Bill Paley (Crappy)). For me the tough part is I don't know if I can recognize a great manager, so how much should I handicap my ability by (maybe a large amount). I think I can be more certain of who isn't a great manager, and simply pass on those.

Company A and B are the same company today. Company A and B are attractive businesses with long runways. The only difference is that company A has a great manager and company B has an average manager. Both managers are early in their careers. What difference in price would you be willing to pay for company A vs. B?

Please leave your politics in the "Politics" section. He's half white and half black. But you've chosen to lower the bar of discussion by pointing out only that he's black. Cheers! Are you insinuating he got a better contract because he was half white? Last I checked you have plenty of people far less than 50% claiming identities...like a certain Massachusetts senator. He got a crazy contract because of his skills. He is what most consider(maybe not Joe Biden) black, and I just think its worth noting that there are definitely certain levels of success available to ALL Americans, which is what the American dream is/was all about. No, I'm saying that race has no part in it and you were making it a discussion about race. Cheers! New Thread Topic... What's your favorite type of orange? Post 1: Donald Trump Post 2: Why are you bringing politics to a discussion on oranges? Post 3: Are you insinuating that he's not an orange?

Kinda self-explanatory, and maybe the answer is already out there. I'm just wondering if as the world became more genetically diverse, did that diversity compound on itself? What happens if this phenomenon goes in reverse? Also as it relates to business. It seems like there are many more types of businesses that exist because other businesses exist. Business diversity creates new businesses (and those businesses get supported by other newly created businesses).

It's true, back in 08/09 when Buffett was young he was able to act aggressively. (this is a joke)

95% of asset managers PBMs

I skimmed that article after the meeting. I couldn't believe the spin it took on the meeting. The WSJ watched a very different meeting than the one I saw.

I thought this part was amazing, he didn't want to give away too much, but seemed extremely surprised at how easy it was to exit at the prevailing prices. The depression discussion became very real. This was one of the most somber meetings if not the most somber I've watched, but it was also for me the most illuminating. I don't think I've given enough weight a depression scenario being a very legitimate possibility, but when WEB seems to spell it out, I'm all ears.

It was my favorite annual meeting. I wasn't sure how much clarity he would give us into his thoughts, but I thought he shared the perfect amount. This is one of the most unusual times in our history, and this just adds to the list of people who describe this situation in a unique way. I found his heavy emphasis on the great depression very interesting. It seemed like a way of saying, "be extremely careful, buying this rise could be like buying right before the rise going into the depression." It had a very somber tone to the meeting, but was very illuminating on how well he can think through a range of possibilities. He's the GOAT, and I will forever be grateful for all of the wisdom he's shared. Always great seeing Whitney Tilson ;)

Spoke to a recruiter today (mainly places in Finance and Accounting), and he said that 80% of hiring is frozen at the moment.

Very interesting to hear the take of asset inflation with deflation in goods/services. Just trying to figure out how the prices of assets that produce those goods and services reliably rises if revenues/profits are falling. Will have to listen to the whole interview for more clarity I guess. Because the required rate of return goes down faster, having a greater impact than any lost income. Sure, theoretically. But had there ever been a deflationary environment where profits were consistently dropping and asset prices rose? I'm partly misquoting him. Not all asset prices will rise. The way he made it sound is that very high quality earnings streams that grow will likely get priced more like bonds (at least that was my impression).

Very interesting to hear the take of asset inflation with deflation in goods/services. Just trying to figure out how the prices of assets that produce those goods and services reliably rises if revenues/profits are falling. Will have to listen to the whole interview for more clarity I guess. Because the required rate of return goes down faster, having a greater impact than any lost income.

That's awesome

His letter is already out. He finished it Feb 22.

Or the coronavirus thread. It was started fairly recently and has more posts than the Tesla thread, the Amazon thread, BAM, Google, ... I haven't looked at it in weeks, it's just too overwhelming. Haha same, that thread has turned into a monster.

Change of mind? https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/calibrating.pdf

I'm trying to think of industries where once all of this ends won't just see a one-day benefit and go back to normal. For example a barbershop will see a one-day benefit as everyone goes back to get a haircut and then normalize. It's not like I will get five haircuts because I skipped five haircuts during quarantine.

Tanos Santos might be the worst interviewer I've ever listened to. It's unfortunate because he has some of the best guests.

I wonder if this means his American and United stakes are completely gone. I've also been wondering if this means he may be in discussions with United or American.

Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position?

If markets were reacting to this, wouldn't we see yields on high grade corporate debt trending upward?

BRKB 160

This is backwards looking. Hypothetical: The market goes up 10% (you invest after it goes up - investment moment A). After 6 months, it then declines 11% and hits the bottom. Over the next six months it then rises 10% (you invest at the end of those 6 months - investment moment B). 12 month returns will be flat for investment moment A. B will likely outperform A, but we don't know if we are at A or B in the midst of things.

Damn, nice job

BKRB at $173 :)