spartansaver

I wonder if this means his American and United stakes are completely gone. I've also been wondering if this means he may be in discussions with United or American.

Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense. I'm having trouble with this one as the thesis seems very obvious. If everyone knows that Wayne is going for a backdoor tip-in, and they just let him skate there, then is he really in that great of a scoring position?

If markets were reacting to this, wouldn't we see yields on high grade corporate debt trending upward?

BRKB 160

This is backwards looking. Hypothetical: The market goes up 10% (you invest after it goes up - investment moment A). After 6 months, it then declines 11% and hits the bottom. Over the next six months it then rises 10% (you invest at the end of those 6 months - investment moment B). 12 month returns will be flat for investment moment A. B will likely outperform A, but we don't know if we are at A or B in the midst of things.

Damn, nice job

BKRB at $173 :)

We are not seeing China getting back to normal yet. It looks like L shaped recovery, with hope it will become U in time. September is not very far away and it could be back, mutated and meaner than ever. So much we still do not understand. What if it becomes a W shaped recovery?

0.97x in 2009.

I wouldn't be surprised if Simon's renaissance is a huge part of this volatility. I've been wondering about Renaissance, seems like they own every company down to the tiny stuff.

New Howard Corona memo https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

BRK, LUV, FTI, CCF - sold out of my WFTF warrants (sorry to anyone who purchased those), they spiked on volatility despite underlying falling 20% at one point.

Omagh, you say the pace is slowing (perhaps it is in China, but it's hard to trust their figures), yet the chart you are using is logarithmic and looks like it continues to rise at a pretty constant rate outside of China. I've been wondering how you end these quarantines... If China ends Wuhan quarantines and cases spike again, will they go back to a quarantine?

Sold CRNC, up 44% in a couple months. Seems like there is more baked in now.

The inputs for that research paper seem to be rather useless. Taking the public figures (which are likely very inaccurate), and then putting those into a formula is "garbage in, garbage out." The more I've read about it, the more I think that most the info we have at this point is useless. The only thing I can say with reasonable confidence, is that it is more contagious than SARS (and I could be wrong about that). My reasoning - it has likely infected in a short amount of time more than SARS ever did (SARS info was likely also very understated).

Thanks for sharing that firsthand information. I hope everyone in your family ends up alright. What makes you think that’s the number has already hit 100k?

What are you guys making of it? I've been doing a fair amount of reading on it. Seems like it's spread quickly (took two months for SARS to spread to around 500 vs. already Unnamed Corona in less than a month) and can lie dormant for some time (patient in Chicago last visited Wuhan in late Dec. and is only now experiencing symptoms).

The very tough part is being right. In the new 100 bagger book, the author discusses Monster energy, which was written up as a short on VIC prior to becoming a 100 bagger. In hindsight its much easier to see the path to 100-baggerdom, but how often would we invest in things growing rapidly and turn out to be wrong. If it's priced in and you are wrong, then your investment results can turn out very poor. One thing Greenblatt talks about is that he doesn't swing for the home runs. Is swinging for the multi-bagger opportunities the easiest path to success as an investor? Charlie Munger likes it that way, but how many of us can compete at that level?

This thread essentially morphed into your favorite idea for 2020 thread.

To expand on this a bit further, GAAP capitalizes rent and does nothing to the income statement. IFRS capitalizes and also makes adjustment to income statement for an implied interest expense. When looking at companies, it’s important to understand what multiple the company is capitalizing its leases at, because a company can easily manipulate the inputs. I personally am not sure capitalizing leases is the proper way to go about things. For example, should using a third party for cloud storage be capitalized? You are essentially benefiting from the other company building all of the storage, and your company is paying a fee on that storage. Why should certain expenses be capitalized with an imputed interest expense while others are not? A lease also does not operate on the same terms as a debt instrument. Each lease can almost be thought of as a non-recourse loan, with minor penalties for cancellation relative to a loan.

ARPO - Aerpio Pharmaceuticals - Trading below net cash and the company announced in Oct. that it is reviewing strategic alternatives and streamlining operations to preserve cash. Cash at the end of Q4 will probably end around 38mn, and I expect that R&D should be minimal going forward. Perhaps $2mn cash flow burn per quarter. Current market cap is $25mn, so maybe 1.5 years before the company cash starts trending below current market cap. The company has ~$400mn in possible royalty payments, and at the end of phase 1 development for an eye pressure/glaucoma drug (eye pressure drug will only be developed on a partnership basis going forward). CEO owns ~14% of company.

It's wild the influence that some bloggers have. It got posted on Clark Street yesterday midday after it had been posted on Twitter the night before by @valuewacatalyst and it's up nearly 60%.

I see, I found the one ending in V, although no shares have been traded yet. Thanks a lot!

If that is the case, shouldn’t a company doing a spinoff drop in price on the ex date? From the ones I’ve looked at, the company doing the spin falls on the date of the spinoff.

A spinoff situation I'm looking at has the section below in it. How do I know if the shares I purchase are "regular way" vs. "ex-distribution" shares? Thanks "Q: If I sell my shares of XX common stock before or on the Distribution Date, will I still be entitled to receive YY shares in the Distribution with respect to the sold shares? A: Beginning on or shortly before the record date and continuing up to and including the Distribution Date, we expect there will be two markets in XX common stock: a “regular-way” market and an “ex-distribution” market. Shares of XX common stock that trade on the “regular-way” market will trade with an entitlement to receive shares of our common stock to be distributed in the Distribution. Shares that trade on the “ex-distribution” market will trade without an entitlement to receive shares of our common stock to be distributed in the Distribution, so that holders who initially sell XX shares ex-distribution will still be entitled to receive shares of YY common stock even though they have sold their shares of XX common stock before the Distribution, because the Xx shares were sold after the record date. Therefore, if you owned shares of XX common stock on the record date and sell those shares on the “regular-way” market before the Distribution Date, you will also be selling the right to receive the shares of our common stock that would have been distributed to you in the Distribution. If you own shares of XX common stock as of the close of business on the record date and sell these shares in the “ex-distribution” market on any date up to and including the Distribution Date, you will still receive the shares of our common stock that you would be entitled to receive in respect of your ownership of the shares of XX common stock that you sold. You are encouraged to consult with your financial advisor regarding the specific implications of selling your XX common stock prior to or on the Distribution Date."