rkbabang

And a moon emoji, you can't have a financial discussion without being able to say

Looks nice so far, I'm still trying to get used to it though. Congratulations on getting it done.

I am also directly short tesla, but  it is just a 2% position of my portfolio For a "value investor" community, I think being LONG Tesla is More crazy. While going long Tesla at these prices is pretty crazy, shorting a stock with what can only be described as a fanatical cult-like following isn't exactly sane either.  Pretty crazy to touch Tesla in any direction.  Although if I still owned it I would be selling, in fact I would (and did) sell a long time ago.

Opened a position in APTS (thanks Gregmal) and added to my position in SE. I paired down my SE position a little bit in January at $232, but added some of that back today under $200.

That is hilarious, only because it isn't going to age well. Reminds me of Paul Krugman saying that "By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s". Even smart people can sometimes be so colossally wrong that in retrospect their quotes can be hilarious. This will be one of those cases.

Ticker Symbol is RYSAS. Down 10% today. If the situation in Turkey continues and Pabrai doesn´t sell, I will start a position. My strategy is to clone Pabrai here because there are no annual reports or financial statements in English, is all in Turkish Language This was $0.75 in 2016, $0.65 in May 2019, $12.75 in Jan 2020, and $6.75 today. Is this a cryptocurrency?

There were winners and losers in the 1970s. I've heard my father commenting many times about how that period of inflation rapidly paid off the house and brought the family a higher standard of living. His pay rose with inflation. Yes, it's great for people with debt, but horrible for people living on fixed incomes or cash savings.

Do the vast majority of people even know what inflation is or what causes it? Most people think if it as just some force of nature, prices go up, I get a raise every year, it is what it is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man You can't fix stupid. Plenty of people lost cash money to Nigerian princes over email. Doesn't mean cash is bad. A fool and his money are soon parted. That is just a universal law of human nature that is constant regardless of what you use as money. That's why next time that Elon Musk contacts me for my bitcoin I'm going to tell him to go to hell!

Tim Ferriss interviewed Vitalik Buterin. https://tim.blog/2021/03/08/vitalik-buterin-naval-ravikant/

On another board people were discussing NFTs and someone said something like "Art has always been nothing but money laundering it is no surprise that it would go digital." That is probably too broad a statement and a gross generalization, but still, there is probably a kernel of truth in that.

Took a little bit more than my cost basis out of NIO and FSRWS and added to both AMZN and AYRWF.

Yeah, if the stock market goes straight up the rest of the decade I'm selling everything in early 2029

Reviewing the entire list of mining equipment they have on order or already purchased, including 70,000 Bitmain S19s and 10,500 Bitmain S19 Pros, at current BTC prices I come up with a little over $1B in annual net revenue (after energy costs) when they are all up and running at year end. This of course includes their claim that Beowulf will be providing power at $0.006 per KWH which seems insanely cheap. I can't decide if this thing is a total fraud due to it's history of constantly switching businesses, employment count, executive turnover, massive share count increase, etc, or a potential huge value play. I mean if my math is right even at $10,000 BTC they probably justify their current market cap. I'm confused. Then why did you buy puts?

He is not a man of his word. http://dickening.com/

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html Currently costs about $19 per BTC transaction. Which is amazingly cheap for large transactions. If you were a large institution which had $1B in gold in your safe in the US and you wanted to move it to another institution in Japan. How long would it take, how much would it cost, and what safety precautions would need to be taken? Even moving dollars rather than gold it would be much easier, quicker, safer, and cheaper with BTC. And as far as I know there is no other way to cross international borders carrying tens of thousands to billions of dollars safely in your head by memorizing 12 words.

There is a lot of BTC. It is currently divisible to 8 decimal places. At $1M/BTC the lowest unit (1 Satoshi) would be worth a penny and one μBTC (micro-bitcoin) would be worth $1. If there are 21M BTC then there are 2,100,000,000,000,000 Satoshi (2.1 quadrillion Satashi) and 21,000,000,000,000 μBTC (21 trillion μBTC).

Maybe you should ask yourself what it is that Square, Visa, PayPal, and other payment processors who are expanding the use of digital currencies must see since they're the experts. It's not just a couple of guys on a forum telling you this stuff. The industry is rapidly moving that direction. We can talk til we're blue in the face to get you to understand what it is and that it has value - or you can just look what the experts are doing. Acquiring crypto and developing crypto solutions... The reason the transactions aren’t instant is because of regulation. The government is trying to prevent criminal activity. That alone should sound serious alarm bells. They must have skipped the criminal activity part https://perspectives.dtcc.com/articles/leading-the-industry-to-accelerated-settlement Q: Why stop at T+1 or T+½? Why not go to real-time settlement? A: Real-time settlement is a simple technical solution but a very complicated market structure change. While the industry should continue to aspire to real-time, it is more pragmatic to reduce the settlement cycle in stages to capture the benefits faster. With real-time settlement in today’s market structure, the entire industry – clients, brokers, investors – loses the liquidity and risk-mitigating benefit of netting, and that is particularly critical during times of heightened volatility and volume. For example, on a typical trading day, NSCC processes an average of about $1.7 trillion in equities transactions. The multilateral netting process reduces that number by about 98%, and the total value settled is around $38 billion. Netting allows brokerages to transfer that $38 billion between parties only once at the end of the day. In a real-time settlement scenario, netting is not possible and trillions of dollars in cash and securities must move through the financial system on a continual basis throughout the trading day. This creates massive market and capital inefficiencies, increases credit and operational risks, and increases costs between trading parties, possibly undermining the stability of the markets. Accelerating settlement requires careful consideration, industry coordination, and a balanced approach so settlement can be achieved as close to the trade as possible (for example, T+1 or T+½), without creating capital inefficiencies and introducing new, unintended market risks, such as eliminating the enormous benefits and cost savings of multilateral netting. I'm very confused. Why are you guys referencing settlement times for equity securities? I can quite easily transfer small dollar amounts of my money to another individual today, instantly. Anything large has limitations and takes more time, due to regulations. What am I missing? You're missing that no settlement happens INSTANTLY in today's financial system. Not for securities. Not for cash. ACH takes 3-5 business days. Stocks take 2 business days to settle. Wires can still take a few hours and cost $. Even solutions like Venmo that seem instantaneous take a few days for cash to reach your account. The only solutions where cash moves "instantly" are solutions where a liquidity provider is giving you their cash while they wait for the cash you transferred to arrive (like trading Schwab allowing me to trade my cash deposit immediately or paying a fee to use an ATM). Cash does NOT move instantly in today's system - this is a result of the plumbing and structure and not of government regulation. Also, securities will exist as tokens and be traded on a blockchain in the future as well. Maybe on a chain such as Ethereum. Companies will issue shares directly to the blockchain and be able to buy-back and remove them. You will be able to see in real time how many shares exist. You will also be able to trade them almost instantly without 3rd party involvement. This I can understand, and I see the value. Why does this mean Bitcoin is worth $50,000 though? Even if real-time settlements don’t happen, it sure seems like they do to me as the consumer. Why does better plumbing, that I don’t even see, make Bitcoin worth $50,000? That was just an aside. But you won't be buying 25 shares of Amazon with $USD, value will be stored in BTC not cash.

Ethereum is my guess. I find both compelling and so own BTC and ETH.

Maybe you should ask yourself what it is that Square, Visa, PayPal, and other payment processors who are expanding the use of digital currencies must see since they're the experts. It's not just a couple of guys on a forum telling you this stuff. The industry is rapidly moving that direction. We can talk til we're blue in the face to get you to understand what it is and that it has value - or you can just look what the experts are doing. Acquiring crypto and developing crypto solutions... The reason the transactions aren’t instant is because of regulation. The government is trying to prevent criminal activity. That alone should sound serious alarm bells. They must have skipped the criminal activity part https://perspectives.dtcc.com/articles/leading-the-industry-to-accelerated-settlement Q: Why stop at T+1 or T+½? Why not go to real-time settlement? A: Real-time settlement is a simple technical solution but a very complicated market structure change. While the industry should continue to aspire to real-time, it is more pragmatic to reduce the settlement cycle in stages to capture the benefits faster. With real-time settlement in today’s market structure, the entire industry – clients, brokers, investors – loses the liquidity and risk-mitigating benefit of netting, and that is particularly critical during times of heightened volatility and volume. For example, on a typical trading day, NSCC processes an average of about $1.7 trillion in equities transactions. The multilateral netting process reduces that number by about 98%, and the total value settled is around $38 billion. Netting allows brokerages to transfer that $38 billion between parties only once at the end of the day. In a real-time settlement scenario, netting is not possible and trillions of dollars in cash and securities must move through the financial system on a continual basis throughout the trading day. This creates massive market and capital inefficiencies, increases credit and operational risks, and increases costs between trading parties, possibly undermining the stability of the markets. Accelerating settlement requires careful consideration, industry coordination, and a balanced approach so settlement can be achieved as close to the trade as possible (for example, T+1 or T+½), without creating capital inefficiencies and introducing new, unintended market risks, such as eliminating the enormous benefits and cost savings of multilateral netting. I'm very confused. Why are you guys referencing settlement times for equity securities? I can quite easily transfer small dollar amounts of my money to another individual today, instantly. Anything large has limitations and takes more time, due to regulations. What am I missing? You're missing that no settlement happens INSTANTLY in today's financial system. Not for securities. Not for cash. ACH takes 3-5 business days. Stocks take 2 business days to settle. Wires can still take a few hours and cost $. Even solutions like Venmo that seem instantaneous take a few days for cash to reach your account. The only solutions where cash moves "instantly" are solutions where a liquidity provider is giving you their cash while they wait for the cash you transferred to arrive (like trading Schwab allowing me to trade my cash deposit immediately or paying a fee to use an ATM). Cash does NOT move instantly in today's system - this is a result of the plumbing and structure and not of government regulation. Also, securities will exist as tokens and be traded on a blockchain in the future as well. Maybe on a chain such as Ethereum. Companies will issue shares directly to the blockchain and be able to buy-back and remove them. You will be able to see in real time how many shares exist. You will also be able to trade them almost instantly without 3rd party involvement.

I'm sorry that the entire financial system doesn't get rebuilt overnight. And yes - there a DeFi options, there are CeFi options, and there are hybrid companies that currently bridge the gap (crypto exchanges, BlockFi, etc). If the US is serious about releasing a digital dollar, you likely won't need companies that straddle both as your on-ramp as the digital dollar will likely be immediately available as an on-ramp into DeFi without using one of these intermediaries If you are going to wait until you can spend crypto everywhere you shop the opportunity to get in early will be gone. I'm old enough to remember when not every store you went into accepted credit cards and not everyone had them. They did catch on though.

Did you know that by the year 2020 Bitcoin will consume all of the worlds energy? https://www.newsweek.com/bitcoin-mining-track-consume-worlds-energy-2020-744036

Bitcoin is an idea. But so is any other money. Money, corporations, stocks, governments, contracts, bonds: are all nothing in reality but stories people tell themselves.

Thank you Clutch, very well said. I would add gold your list as nothing but a fantasy, a construct of the human mind rather than anything in reality. It cracks me up when people say its value comes from its usefulness. Aluminum has every useful feature that gold has and is better at most of them, yet it isn't used as money and isn't "worth " thousands of dollars per oz. Why? Because it doesn't have the mythical history that gold has going back thousands of years, it isn't a pretty yellow color that humans fancy, and it isn't as rare. But again it is more useful and worth practically nothing. All value is subjective, seeing people trying to come up with post hoc reasoning for why we value one thing and not another is often hilarious. The easiest people to fool is often ourselves. Bitcoin solves some problems and why will people value it over any other crypto which can also solve such problems? For the same reason people don't hoard aluminum coins. Its history, its story, its rarity, and because everyone else values it.

At $53, isn't the BTC market cap around $700B as I seem to remember that accounting for lost and unmined total count was closer to 14M? Or is that way off? No one knows for sure how many coins are lost (including millions of bitcoins presumably owned by Satoshi Nakamoto), so the market cap is calculated based on the only number which is known for sure: the number of mined bitcoins. So yes the real market cap is somewhat less, but no one knows how much less. I know there have been people who have looked at the number of coins which has not moved in X numbers of years, but that doesn't mean anything as a lot of people are holding. Most of my coins haven't been moved since 2014, but they are not lost. There is really no way to ever know for sure which coins are lost and which are being intentionally held. 100 BTC which haven't moved since 2010 were recently moved, further illustrating the point that no one knows which coins are owned and which are lost. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-whale-from-2010-moves-100-btc-for-first-time-in-11-years