kab60

Hi. I've been looking a bit into that. Seems very interesting. Have you seen a decent writeup anywhere or mind to share a couple of points? What's obvious is the deposit growth, which is incredible. The culture is based on the Commerce Bank model, that Vernon Hill "invented" in America. The culture is real - I can tell you that. Both customers and employees love this company. You have 56 "stores" going to 100-130, roughly in 5-6 years. The "store model" is totally repeatable - and UK will eventually support, perhaps, 200 stores. There are structural reasons for the growth - by that I mean - the UK banking sector is being forced to shrink (I mean the legacy banks) as the UK regulators and the public's interests have not been served. (RBS is still 65% owned by gov). So some assets are being dispersed, the market is opening up, and legacy branches have closed at a fast rate due to cost cutting and poor locations. So there are significant industry tailwinds for the growth of "challenger" banks. Metro is the best of them all. It's the fastest growing bank I have ever seen in my life. Looks like Metro Bank is blowing up. Risk weighting for mortgages off - they had RWA for commercial mortgages at 50% rather than 100%. Did they forgot to read the manual for bank accounting in the UK? Looks doomed to me, or at least has to raise capital. On then surface, it still looks adequately capitalized, but I stay away from financials that can’t get their accounting right - a lot of them become doughnuts. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/british-lender-metro-banks-2018-072746266.html I'm not savy enough to figure out this Company (and luckily stayed away even though the story looked compelling), but their trading update really rubs me the wrong way. For someone as simple as me I'd think everything was fine and dandy even though they had a lil' slip up with some loan designations... Check it out for yourself. https://www.metrobankonline.co.uk/globalassets/documents/investor_documents/metro_bank_trading_update.pdf

This. I don't understand why one needs to know much more than that. I think a personal investor has a big advantage because one can ignore short term thinking and accept volatility as a gift and opportunity, while it's a real (job) risk for PM's. But I really don't think any smalltime investors have an advantage in interpreting PMI data out of ChIna and what have you, so when even pro's seem to get it wrong more often than right, why even try? The odds look really bad. As for buying when there's blood in the streets - there's always a bloody street somewhere. I mean, even mega caps often swing 40 pct from top to bottom during the year, so surely there is opportunies (now I'm not saying they're easy). As for Howard Marks, I think he's pretty wise. What I've taken away from him is that playing leveraged small cap probably isn't the best time right now, but as always it depends on price.

I don't know. I think times are pretty good. Better than in a long time. Sure you're not just putting too much emphasis on recent data? I mean, when was Italy not a mess? And who cares about the UK? I think it's a futile game. Why even bother when you can buy good businesses with plus 10% FCF yields and treasuries are at 2,5%? If shit hits most good companies emerge stronger from a crisis - hopefully with less shares outstanding. I'm all in. 8) (famous last words?)

Maybe you're right, maybe you're not. Historically, I suppose miles driven have trended up quiet a bit as well, and look where that has gotten us... I really don't know, which is why I can't get myself to buy what has historically been terrible - TERRIBLE - businesses despite them looking cheap on a P/E basis. I understand OEM profitability is boosted by the switch from sedans to trucks, but what happens if/when oil prices rise? Haven't we seen that play out before? I believe there was a time where everyone wanted to build small vehicles... Now late in a cycle all people talk about is trucks... I like Fiats' brands, but doesn't that dash to trucks increase competition and possibly hurt margins? And what if oil hits 120 USD/barrel and we get a recession - will trucks still be in vogue? Another thing, which I mentioned in the FCAU thread and didn't see anyone address. What happens to working capital in a downturn? I believe it's negative some 20B (at Fiat)? Again, I don't know the answer, but I really wouldn't value these businesses on their P/E but try to gauge how much cash they'll generate to their owners. And I'm not smart enough to come up with a reasonable answer.

I agree with a lot of the stuff in that first link. Auto looks cheap on a P/E basis, especially something like FCAU, but I can't get myself to invest in OEM's because I really struggle to figure out whether those earnings will ever be available to me or just plowed into the next new new thing. Now surely FCAU is doing all the right things, and it seems like they're setting themselves up for at sale, but what's the actual FCF over the cycle? I might be missing a big opportunity, but I think auto retailers and parts manufacturers are possibly easier to figure out and just better businesses.

-6,5% Compares with 2017: 18,5 2016: 45 2015: 12,5

Thanks for the comments re Berry. I'm sure others know the case much better than me, so input or pushback is much appreciated. There is obviously a risk in substitution, but overall plastic usage is expected to grow. Not sure how their IP stacks up, but generally increased regulation should favor the bigger players (and possibly speed up consolidation). Their track record is outstanding, so I'd expect them to navigate choppy waters just fine (I think the biggest minus is inside ownership and their economic incentives, but so far it has worked out nicely either way).

You can't eat IRR, but that is what PE serves. Taking out equity boosts IRR, while it won't affect absolute returns (from initial investment).

I think Linamar is stupid cheap both short term but espescially if one expects to hold for the long term (they have a 100 year plan...). As for next year, who knows, but something like Spectrum Brands and Alliance Data might work out better as they delever, buyback and clean up their stories a bit (but Christ do I suck at making short term predictions).

Spent the last cash the other day to buy Berry Global just below 45

It sounds agressive but from a PE point of view a dividend recap reduces the money they have at risk and it gives the PE firm cash to return to their investors. It means the PE firm is left with a highly levered equity stub that might pay off big or drown in debt, but if it's the latter they just pull the plug and leave the mess to someone else (or negotiate a major haircut on the debt as a condition for injecting fresh equity). The ones that risk getting screwed is debt holders since they might be exposed to equity-like risk but only getting paid a bond return.

Well, guess who sells Blue Moon... :)

Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF? I’m not familiar with the company, but what about this trend? Icehouse > Sales change (2012-2017): -8.9% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.3 million > Market share: 0.6% Coors Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -11.1% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 15.9 million > Market share: 7.6% Miller Lite > Sales change (2012-2017): -12.3% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 12.8 million > Market share: 6.2% Keystone Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -15.1% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million > Market share: 1.7% Milwaukee’s Best Ice > Sales change (2012-2017): -16.8% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 1.2 million > Market share: 0.6% Miller High Life > Sales change (2012-2017): -21.5% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 3.5 million > Market share: 1.7% Milwaukee’s Best Light > Sales change (2012-2017): -43.7% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 625,000 > Market share: 0.3% Miller Genuine Draft > Sales change (2012-2017): -50.5% > Barrels shipped in 2017: 680,000 > Market share: 0.3% Source: https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/12/21/beers-americans-no-longer-drink-5/2/ Well, that is definately the bear case and somewhat consensus I think, but they've been good at making up for volume declines through economies of scale and pricing. Scale is what truly matters which is why M&A can create a lot of value for the big guys (basically Molson and AB InBev). Come a recession I think they'll do better than craft and perhaps they can pick some subscale brewers up on the cheap.

Is Molson Coords Brewing really trading at 6x FCF? Nah, 12 pct FCFE yield mas o menos (they guide 1.5b FCF plus/minus 10 pct). Come mid 19 their leverage is on target and I expect a large payout.

Bought more TAP, not much cash left after selling all my winners already - and dumping most in ADS. Great timing. :)

Sold all of my Autozone stock last week (lucky timing). I might regret this a couple of years down the line, because these guys have a winning formula, but there's a real opportunity cost, and it was a really good IRR after the Amazon scare blew over. Lots of stuff looks attractive right now so solely sold on valuation (which isn't even that demanding to be honest).

Ditto. And the percentage isn't far off either.

Merger arbitrage? Getting bought out by Takeda

Thank you! It was getting really annoying. Ditto. That being said, the politics discussions might not be completely useless depending on how one invests. I think it says a thing about ones character and ones ability to have a flexible mind and change ones opinion when the facts change. Some of the politic posts leaves me with the impression that it's lacking among quiet a few participants on here, and it means I probably hold their opinions on investments in less regard if it seems they're only accepting information that fits their narrative. I'm sure someone can point out how I'm the victim of a lot of different biases myself by judging people that way (and possibly affected by my own political views), so bring it. :D Thinking Long and Slow bored me to death, so I didn't learn about all the biases just yet.

Alliance Data Autozone Auto Nation Ashford Inc Molson Coors Interactive Brokers Linamar Corp Lion Rock Group Spectrum Brands Alliance and Interactive are like 15-20%, rest around 7-12%

It could very well have consequences, but one has to remember these are some really old cases. Same could be said about Danske Banks money laundering case, so not saying it won't have an effect, but a lot of the stuff is pretty well covered already. This 2009 piece from The Guardian is epic: Roger the Dogder - £40m king of tax https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/mar/19/roger-allan-jenkins

Genesis Vision platform. Immutable Ledger. Blockchain. Metatrader. I couldn't make this shit up. Anyway, why would you move the HF industry to the blockchain?

Rumour has it that someone cornered him. Fascinating story. Aas was a big swinging dick. Not so hard now.

Hi. I've been looking a bit into that. Seems very interesting. Have you seen a decent writeup anywhere or mind to share a couple of points?

It seems you're right. This thing keeps getting hammered. Glad I made this a small position - better lucky than good I suppose.