kab60

Thanks. Will try and find those books. Started reading that research pierce, but I really hate reading academic stuff.

KCLarkin, any litterature on momentum investing you can recommend? Not for trading but for entry/exit.

Stock futures crashing, Nikkei down the drain, oil plummet, treasury yield falling, Yen and Gold stronger, British pound weakest since 1985 - Brexit is here!! Looks like one might finally get some decent bargains, though I don't suppose one needs to hurry. Anyone else on the hunt for something specific? I'm hoping that Goodwin, Lancashire and Castings PLC goes on sale.

In the latest Graham and Doddsville Marc Cohodes talks a bit about his Canadian Real Estate short - he's short via Home Capital Group

I should probably try to tilt towards that as well since gains in my pension account are taxed 15 pct. whether I realize them or not, so holding short/long term doesn't matter. Still, why is it more import to limit downside risk in your taxable account? Can't you offset future gains with old losses?

I've only been investing for a year and a half and is obviously still evolving my style, and I'm trying to figure out what would probably be the overall best framework when one considers taxes. I live in Denmark where stocks and dividends are taxed at 27-42 percent (when stock is sold/dividend received - losses can be subtracted from future gains indefinately) so I figure I should probably drift towards GARP investing to defer taxes and compound retained earnings instead of trying to flip a lot of net-nets for an example. It's just not really my style as I like cash gushing and out of favor companies that doesn't necessarily have a lot of growth (and sometimes a good bunch of leverage as well) or companies trading close to cash with a free business on top. What do you guys pay in taxes, and how does it affect your investing style? Any thoughts on how you'd approach investing if paying 42 pct. on any capitals gains (holding periode doesn't matter here) would be appreciated as well.

Read their 10-k about the NOL. I think they mentioned some IRS rules about ownership change that can lose the NOL. That's why they approved unlimited preferred stocks, in order to raise money and realize this NOL without either diluting existing shareholders or losing this NOL. However, they have only been able to issue $6.6 million preferred so far, and it is convertible preferred. Exactly. A takeover ruin the NOLSs. Anyone interested in Kingsway should read T11's letters. He expects a big transformative acquisition. I think it's interesting but find it difficult to value. Insiders keep buying stock though. I didn't see any form 4s in the past 12 months showing insider buys. Where did you get that? I am also looking into PIH, which KFS IPO'ed in 2014. I think if KFS decided to sell the major stake in PIH and retain the other insurance business, that maybe a potential bearish sign that either: 1. They think PIH is not as good as the other insurance line. 2. They need money badly and PIH is the only quality asset that they can sell for a good price. Which one of the two is true? ::) Canadian Insider: https://www.canadianinsider.com/company?menu_tickersearch=Kingsway%20Financial%20Services%20Inc.%20%7C%20KFS I saw you asking a question along the same lines in the PIH thread, but I don't have the answer. I'm intrigued by PIH but not enough to pull the trigger. PIH is easier for me since it's trading below BV, whereas KFS - as you said - trades a lot above.

Read their 10-k about the NOL. I think they mentioned some IRS rules about ownership change that can lose the NOL. That's why they approved unlimited preferred stocks, in order to raise money and realize this NOL without either diluting existing shareholders or losing this NOL. However, they have only been able to issue $6.6 million preferred so far, and it is convertible preferred. Exactly. A takeover ruin the NOLSs. Anyone interested in Kingsway should read T11's letters. He expects a big transformative acquisition. I think it's interesting but find it difficult to value. Insiders keep buying stock though.

It wasn't major, but I did a small writeup om Joyou AG and took a speculative position; two weeks later it was in bankruptcy. :o Endo/Concordia also comes to mind when Vrx is mentioned

Well there's Michael Burrys Nexpoint Residential Trust which has a lot of floating rate debt (he might have somewhat of a portfolio hedge with 25-30 pct. finansials). I like Blucora and DirectCash. The most obvious are telcoms as you mentioned yourself. Packer posted a couple of telcom ideas; GNCMA and ALSK as well as Greek Intralot (non-telcom). There's also HCOM. Alliance Healthcare is another very levered equity stub. Transdigm as well as VRX/Concordia Healthcare also comes to mind.

Holy shit. I just tuned in and haven't followed, but how do I put on my first short ever? I live in Copenhagen and I'm pretty familiar with high real estate prices (and 2% 30 year mortgages), but that looks crazy.

I run a pretty concentrated portfolio with just five stocks and think they're all good value: DCI (Canada), BCOR (US), RLGT (US), WPT (US) and VDTH (ADR, India). Optically none of them are cheap, and they don't screen well, but all have high ROIC and are growing (DCI less so, RLGT via acquisitions) so it's not cigar butt investing but what I consider very cheap (and growing) cashflows more so than tangible assets and low PB.

Not sure what to think of this (it sounds plausible, but I might be a sucker) - fromQ4 CC: "Now, in terms of the provision, the provision rate decrease in terms of where the target is. We took it down from 6% to 7% to $5.5% to 6.5%. And I want to reiterate that that's really structural in nature. The efficient frontier that we've always defined has been -- it's assumed a static mix to the extent the mix changes and certainly we've seen a significant change in the mix both from a channel perspective, product perspective over the last two years. The efficient frontier just naturally and mathematically changes where it is. So because the strategic partner and direct originations went from in 2013 really being less than 50% of originations and in 2015 now it's over 70%, that's had a significant impact on the provision rates and really where efficient frontier is. So, it's not that we're taking -- that we're changing our risk tolerance, it's just that we're being more profit maximizing given the mix shift at the 5.5% to 6.5% level."

You have to be careful. OnDeck reduced its loan loss provision/revenue ratio substantially after the IPO. All the net income growth comes entirely from that. :) Thanks a bunch. Maybe we should start at thread. I'm going through the 10K at the moment. Where'd you find that? EDIT: Are you talking about about the provision rate and reserve ratio falling in FY15? Both went up in 2014 compared to 2013 and then down in 2015. Provision rate is 0,2 pct. lower than 2013, but reserve ratio is 0,8 pct. higher. I haven't studied many financials, so it's hard for me to judge whether it reflects real changes in their credit risk (their 15 days+ deliquency ratio has come down from 7,6% in 2013 to 7,3% to 6,6% last year). Which is also why I'd like a lot of management skin in the game.

Thanks a bunch - it seems like a very interesting idea. It says On Deck CEO has all his net worth in the Company; anyone know how much that is?

Could you post the letter? T

I think you have to do a bit of work to see the value. Cimpress might not screen well, but if you tinker with the numbers and believe the long term thesis it's apparent why the company is more valuable than the stock price indicates. He has a pretty qualitative approach and says he thinks very long term. I really really recommend his letters.

Blucora@5,25, more DirectCash the other day at 11,1

I went to their website (http://steelexcel.com/) and under investors and under the "investors section" there is only the 2013 (!) Annual Meeting. This also appears to be a company losing money (FY2015 and FY2014). Do you have more information? They had some impairments. Check the cashflows. (I don't know much else - just took a quick glimpse at financials)

why doesn't the debt concern you? ~3x the market cap Do you mean equity? Net debt is 186m or equal to the current market cap and 2,6 times FY15 EBITDA. They've been reducing debt. Edit: I think it's a pretty recession proof business, so I think they can easily manage it as this level.

More DirectCash @ 10.26. Trading @ 25% cash yield and EV/ebitda @ 5,2 with high insider ownership and recent buying.

More Videocon (6,2) and Radiant Logistics (3,2) and Halogen yesterday and DCI today.

More Videocon (@7) and DirectCash Payments(@10.3) the other day. Considering GTT, Real Industry, Halogen and more Radiant Logistics

Yes, any idea what happened? Can't find any news. I was a shareholder but sold mid 40ties after getting uncomfortable with the high valuation.

Thanks for the input re calculating portfolio returns. 2015 was my first full year of investing and I was up 12,5 percent. I calculated my return comparing the total amount of capital in my brokerage account at yearend with the total amount of capital I had transferred to my brokerage account. I committed most of my capital throughout the year so IRR is probably higher but it doesn't really matter to me. I know how much I set aside for investing and how much it grew and that'll do.