Parsad

No, not going to buy one...I can't justify the price...especially when the Bronco is essentially a Defender without the locking differential and nice interior at half the price. I had an X1 previously, and I've got a 320i right now...most likely going to be an X3. I love the braking, handling and quality of BMW...as well as their service department. Unless I can find something clearly superior, I'll stick to tried and true. I just need something more roomy again, as my back is acting up as I get older...I'd prefer to now start getting into cars bum first, rather than legs first...the 320i is quite low, as was my Mini Cooper. Even the X1 rides lower than an X3 and I plan on going on more road trips...so we need more room in the back seats while maintaining luggage space. Cheers!

Nobody here is buying Tesla's Cybertruck? I've got a friend who put a deposit down on one. Either this is going to be amazing or this era's AMC Gremlin! Cheers!

Flesh, I think we've been looking at exactly the same cars. I've got the X3 as first in line, but I also like the Telluride. Tiguan is a bit smaller than those two, so I don't think it will work out. Looked at the Velar and Defender, but couldn't justify the price tag compared to the X3 and Telluride. I really kind of like the Bronco and price, but the roof issues worries me a bit. Also thought about a Wrangler...Audi Q5...really liked the Macan, but the rear seats were too small...and even a Volvo XC60, but didn't like the interior. Also, prefer to buy 2-3 years old with less than 40K km...sometimes you get lucky and the previous owner has bought the extended warranty you get free. I might wait until 2022 as there are a bunch of new SUV's coming out, plus the Telluride will be nearly 2-3 years old. Also don't like how used car prices have risen recently alongside new car prices. Cheers!

Losses from Katrina were around $125B...Ida looks to be stronger than Katrina! Berkshire usually accounts for 5-8% of such losses...Fairfax usually gets hit with 0.5-1% of such losses. I wonder if the area/levies have been reinforced to withstand Category 4 hurricanes better after the Katrina experience...we'll soon find out! Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/28/weather/hurricane-ida-saturday/index.html

Again, that's the whole point of this exercise (post) as you've wildly generalized about how many blunders have occurred by Fairfax. Have mistakes happened...yes. Have they hurt results over the last decade...yes. Does that equate to a poor management team and poor results going forward? I think the masses are wrong here. Cheers!

Yes, finally someone who put together a list! Of those, of any significant size and scale...BB, Recipe, Farmer's Edge, Fairfax Africa, Canwest Global Of those that have/will turn into winners...Resolute, Eurobank, Torstar. Of those that were macro bets...whether right or wrong...Deflation hedges, shorts. So of the tens of billions they've invested...these are their mistakes...about $2.5B...certainly significant, and not Buffett or Munger-like, but certainly not the fuckups that you guys make them out to be. Probably the biggest mistake is really their errors of omission...not participating in one of the biggest bull markets...too much cash sitting on the sidelines. Cheers!

I'm neither apologizing for them, nor am I touting their investment prowess...via skill or luck. My point is that the biggest turds that you guys can think of is BB, Abitibi and Torstar...which whether you like it or not, has just made Paul and Jordan a ton of money. Regarding TIG...well there would be no Odyssey America Re without TIG Re. At this point, I think TIG Re has proven to be a valuable part of the Fairfax insurance group and provided commensurate returns that no one would have predicted when TIG was acquired. Lastly, on the topic of APR...it was not simply heaped on Atlas. They wanted it. It has the same leasing ability and capital requirements that shipping or fractional jet ownership has...and guess who gets to run it...the guy who built one of the best energy businesses in America, turned around a shipping business and restored a fractional jet business. To suggest it was forced on Sokol or Chen is just silly! Cheers!

Just look at the European yield curve and grasp what this means for insurers and premium pricing for the next 5-10 years: https://ycharts.com/indicators/reports/euro_yield_curves You have negative yields until you get to the European 15-year bonds. Insurers will have to write really good business, cut expenses and raise rates, since yield is scarce. US insurers have a much more favorable yield curve. I expect European insurers to write better business than North American insurers going forward to survive and remain competitive. Cheers!

They've written at better than 100% over the last decade: Year RoNTA1 % Combined ratio % Attritional ratio % Investment return (net of fees) % 2020 (19.6) 112.6 52.6 1.0 2019 18.1 95.8 55.0 3.6 2018 (14.4) 103.3 57.2 (2.0) 2017 1.1 112.4 56.4 4.9 2016 11.8 96.4 55.5 2.6 2015 9.1 91.7 55.2 0.1 2014 20.7 89.5 51.0 2.9 2013 24.2 85.4 51.3 2.1 2012 18.7 93.2 51.8 2.9 2011 8.5 98.0 55.4 2.4 Note 1: Before FX and corporate activity costs In 2017, they were hit by: The net claims incurred by Brit from these events totalled US$250.0m (Hurricane Harvey: US$51.5m; Hurricane Irma: US$110.1m; Hurricane Maria: US$46.4m; Mexico earthquakes: US$6.8m; California wildfires: US$35.2m), or 16.2pps on the combined ratio (2016: US$68.4m/4.5pps). This was in line with our expectations given the nature and scale of the events and our market share. In 2020, it was Covid. I would imagine that with current premium growth and rates, they will once again be writing better than 100% for some time. Currently, they hit a 94.6% combined ratio in the 1st half of 2021. Covid would have eaten up some of the excess capital European insurers had and long-term interest rates are near negative in Europe...thus you have to write good business and premiums will go up for a while. I don't think investors understand what a significant impact to earnings the current insurance market will provide to Fairfax...on a global basis too! Even if they have very average investment returns, it will be more than made up for by their insurance profits. Can you imagine what happens if they can allocate capital to some decent bonds or equities?! Cheers!

I don't know...you tell me. That's why I'm asking. How big was the position...how much did they lose? So far the critics and even supporters have only come up with BB...and shorts. Cheers!

Short bets aren't investing...it's speculation. Missing out on a bull market isn't investing either...they've been sitting on billions and billions of cash and bonds, because they were making a macro bet that a financial crisis was a distinct possibility...be it in NA or China. But these were poor macro bets. I'm talking about actual investments made and their poor track record. So far, you guys have BB. What else? Are they bad at macro bets...yeah, possibly...hit the lights out with the tech bubble, CDS and housing crisis...but really screwed the pooch with shorts, S&P puts and sitting on too much in cash/bonds. I keep hearing how bad they are at investing...other than BB...what else? Even frickin' Crum & Forster turned out well! Torstar would have been a home run too, if they had not sold to Paul and Jordan. Commodity bets are all turning for them in a big way. My point is that the Fairfax team aren't bad investors...they are poor market timers! Cheers!

Due to all of the comments about how Fairfax invests in nothing but POS businesses, especially BB, let's put together the worst investments ever made by Fairfax without a commensurate return long-term. We've seen them make these distressed investments in cigar-butt companies before, but somehow they manage to walk away from most relatively unscathed...often selling a chunk or receiving return of capital equal to their investment, while retaining the original investment position...and we are left scratching our head wondering how they managed that. Also, let's exclude the short positions they've had as they were almost entirely a macro bet. Cheers!

The irony is that even with the Delta variant, the economy continues to recover quite dramatically, as people fear more lockdowns, etc. I see the Delta variant having some impact, particularly on the unvaccinated, but I don't see things going back to how it was last year. Cheers!

British Columbia has extensive data available that covers months and months of data. All data currently points to that the majority of covid cases and hospitalizations occurring from the Delta variant. 75% of the cases are in unvaccinated people and 95% of the hospitalizations are in unvaccinated people...slide 5 in the link below: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/2021-08-05_Data_Summary.pdf Extensive data available on Covid in BC: http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data Regarding the article referenced by Muscleman in the Journal of Infection...they do state that it was done using modelling, and not actual data or clinical testing. I agree with their suggestion that ADE exists within vaccines, but the actual hospital data shows that vaccinated people can still get the Delta variant (and probably other future variants), but have an extremely high rate of surviving the infection. Whereas most of the current deaths are occurring in unvaccinated people. Like the flu virus, Covid will become an annual vaccine for those that want it or are vulnerable. Cheers!

Largest Hack in Crypto History...$600M: https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/11/tech/crypto-hack/index.html Still no Bernie Madoff, but how long before someone walks away with $60B, instead of $600M? Untrackable...untraceable! Cheers!

More crypto coins than U.S. listed stocks now...me thinks crypto investors are due a correction of epic proportions...probably as big as the tech wreck in 2000! Cheers! Crypto Coin Listings Exploded in 2021 - CoinDesk

I think there have been a handful of CEO's who have bought back more in recent history (between the financial crisis and the Covid pandemic) with their own personal capital...pretty much all in the U.S. I'm almost certain Prem's buyback with personal capital was the single largest in North America during the pandemic. I have heard of several CEO's who bought back $20-$50M (Jamie Dimon, the CEO of Prospect Capital, Gary Schiffman, Dustin Moskowitz (Asana), Robert Duggan, Whitney Wolfe Heard) in the last 18 months...but none were anywhere near $150M. Cheers!

I would actually argue that Fairfax's group of insurance companies and their underwriting are now as good as any of their peers. Dare I even compare them to Berkshire's group of insurers excluding National Indemnity and Geico. Cheers!

Again, you are viewing Fairfax in a vacuum. How many insurer stocks dropped from $600 to $60? Fairfax's did when it was under the short attack 17 years ago...thus the high volatility. The question isn't what Fairfax did in the past, but what it will do in the future? Cheers!

I'm not sure we are actually disagreeing here. Like I said, I look at every investment based on opportunity cost and whether it is discounted to intrinsic value. That not only applies to FFH, but even BRK. I'm a huge proponent of no "forever hold" stock. The reason the board is called the Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax isn't because of Berkshire or Fairfax's performance. It has to do with the lessons learned from Buffett and Prem during my life...about developing an intellectual framework, integrity, life lessons, how to treat people, etc. Prem may have his faults as some on here state, but even the biggest hater has to admit that at least he puts his money where his mouth is and attempts to be transparent, fair with shareholders and try to do the best that he can. It's easy to post stuff about people under anonymity (not you), because people know that their own faults and failures will never see the light of day. Everyone is Tom Brady until they actually have to throw a real ball against a charging Khalil Mack or JJ Watt! Cheers!

I'm not sure comparing Fairfax to the greatest investor of all time and arguably the greatest company of all time is fair. Now if you ask me which has the better prospects going forward for the next 2-3 years...MKL, RE, WTM, Y or FFH...my money is on FFH. Cheers!

I think you're looking at Fairfax in a vacuum...since it has underperformed for the last decade, it means management will underperform for another decade. MSFT was stagnant from 2000 to 2015. Assuming MSFT was the same company in 2015 under Nadella, because it underperformed from 2000-2015 under Ballmer meant you missed one hell of a ride from 2015 on. It's the same view people had when I was talking about JEF. Since Handler struggled after taking over from Steinberg & Cummings, meant JEF would continue to struggle under Handler. Again, people missed a great opportunity to own a terrific investment bank at dirt cheap prices. I see Prem making similar "simplification changes" at FFH, that Handler did at JEF...streamline, get the core working optimally and go back to what we do best. Doesn't mean I'll hold FFH, MSFT or JEF forever, but all three had very opportune moments to invest, and many people missed all three. Cheers!

Agree! Look at everyone who has tried to predict the markets since the internet bubble. They may have gotten the 1999 bubble right, and then the 2008 housing bubble correct, but everything else wrong since then...or they may have gotten those two wrong, but were correct on the current bull market. No one has been 100% right predicting markets since 1999, and if they were lucky to get a couple right, they got one dead wrong! I haven't seen one investment guru, analyst, money manager, poster, economist...anyone...get it correct since 1999. That being said, my cash hoard is building! Cheers!

+1! You guys had to wake up the analysts. Cheers!

Lawrence Cunningham is interviewed by Consuela Mack: Cheers!