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Everything posted by Parsad
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What are you listening to ? (Music thread)
Parsad replied to Spekulatius's topic in General Discussion
One of my favorites by Nick. Crank it up as loud as you can! Cheers! -
Hmmm...that may be true. Equally true is that he's asking for help from Xi with Iran and the SOH. And for that, don't mess with China's business with Taiwan. I'm guessing there's some reciprocal dialogue going on and both are indicating what they would like. As Munger said, it's silly for China and the U.S. to not try and work together in some ways. Cheers!
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Not appropriate! Just like when they do it...don't! Cheers!
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What's hilarious is the tire store and tires on the sidewalk next door in the picture. Only in NY!! Cheers!
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Trump was too busy trying to save his tower on the Gold Coast in Australia. Another one bites the dust! Cheers! https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-13/trump-tower-gold-coast-plans-scrapped/106673096
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Yup! 100%. Cheers!
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Absolutely...Orla/Equinox is the exception. Just anyone in the industry really needs to know the people involved and what they are doing, because there are a lot of bad actors in the industry. Most of the illegal activity cited by regulators and "pump and dump" activity happens in the resource sector in Canada. Cheers!
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And these are the larger ones over the years. There are tons of junior companies that are just pure pump and dump, eventually disappearing, turn into zombie companies, or the shell is reused in a "rinse & repeat" effort by the same promoters. Cheers!
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Most of it is going to charity. If I die before it is converted to a RRIF...it's fine. If I'm still alive, I will be donating a large portion each year and offsetting any taxes. Of all the problems I could have, it's a good problem to have. Rather than one where I don't have enough money for healthcare, nursing home, homecare, etc. My Mom would be in that position if I wasn't here to help her, so I'm ok with it. I have enough money to take care of her, take care of myself, leave my property and a great nestegg for my niece and nephew, plus leave a very nice lump sum to non-profits of my choice. If it only gets bigger, then the non-profits will benefit even more. Cheers!
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Yup...pretty damn close! And I sleep well at night. About 65% of my money is invested like this...personal holding company, over half of my RRSP, over half of my TFSA. The other 35% is what I trade...remaining of RRSP, TFSA and a couple of cash accounts (not too much trading in these...more opportunistic over time to boost their size). Cheers!
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Very fortunate Lazarus...happy for you that you have been in 9 years of remission! Cheers!
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Glad everything was caught and worked out for you! Canada's health system has its share of problems, but I've been through the wringer twice in Canada in the last 8 years, and even with its problems, we have great doctors, nurses, staff working in a system that broadly works very well and has saved my life twice! They need to allow private healthcare facilities as a release valve for changing demographics, but the public healthcare system works well 90% of the time. I've worked directly and indirectly with the healthcare system in Canada, and like anything, there is always room for improvement. But a good public healthcare system should be a right...not an afterthought like it is for many countries! Cheers!
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Happened just in the last couple of months. BRK will continue to do well, but it is just too big now for outsized gains and opportunities. It will probably excel in acquiring those large private businesses that are too big for FFH, MKL and most private equity funds. But the universe is just too far small for BRK to substantially move the needle. I would not be surprised to see large buybacks and an eventual dividend with all the cash that pours out. FFH and MKL have a great opportunity in front of them, and they are still small enough and flexible enough to do amazing things for my portfolio and eventually my niece and nephew and any non-profits I support. They already own both, so going forward, they just know along with my brother...keep adding and adding...let it all compound! Cheers!
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35% Fairfax, 25% MKL, 15% BRK, 15% VOO, 10% Cash...if there is a significant market correction, any cash gets added to the cheapest one or largest correction. Cheers!
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Not entirely. Anyone involved with the mining industry knows that is the rule, not the exception. It's cleaned up in many areas over the decades, but every time there is a boom, the scumbags crawl out from under their rocks too! Cheers!
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Actually, you are not correct here. The only reason they didn't achieve 15% or better annualized was because of the equity hedging and short positions. They no longer do that since 2019. The macro bets at times were massive winners or in terms of the equities they hedged and short positions they bought after the GFC were massive losers...eliminated the upside of the equity investments they made in 2008-2009. Part of their new found glory is related to no longer making such significant macro bets and looking more for guaranteed income from bonds, interest, dividends, etc. With their leverage, they've realized they don't need homeruns to hit their goal...singles and doubles with the leverage will get them there and reduce their risk profile. Cheers!
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MKL and BRK are somewhat correlated, but overall, the three stocks are not particularly correlated even though they are insurance companies, and differ widely with the S&P500 TR. I own all four and just don't care about the market anymore...just enjoy life and have fun in my trading accounts! The bulk of my money is in non-trading accounts and is in these four. Cheers!
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Yes, they haven't put up their equity returns as much in the last few years, because there has been significant investment in associates which sort of occludes the easy comparison with the S&P500. In past years, the investment slides showed that Fairfax's investment team just demolished comparative indices on bonds (Brian Bradstreet)...I mean just creamed them over 35-40 years...probably the best performance of any bond manager I've ever seen or heard of. On the equities side, they were on par or outperformed the comparative equity indices. The last one I had was from 2012's AGM. So it's been a long time since they've shown this. The equity hedging hurt their equity performance not long after and it was a lost 6-7 years until the massive turnaround the last 6-7 years. With Wade and Lawrence handling more of the work load going forward, you'll probably see the equity portfolio behave more like it did under Peter Cundill, albeit it still has to work in association and tandem with how the insurance business operates, and the duration of contracts written there. Cheers!
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I think he's blow through far more capital than he's made in his various investments and SPACs. Cheers!
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Point is they don't need the same return on the total investment portfolio as MKL or BRK. FFH's higher leverage multiplies their investment return significantly. That being said, it also increases their risk on the downside...thus the higher historical volatility for FFH and lower p/b value relative to MKL and BRK. If your presumption is that things could or will go wrong, then you have to minimize your position size to a level that let's you live with that risk. Otherwise don't hold the stock if that is a concern. You have the option of holding MKL...which is small like FFH, so has a ton of room to grow; uses less leverage and carries less debt; essentially emulates Berkshire's three-legged stool of income; has respectable and reliable management like FFH or BRK; and is relatively cheap still. I own all three, but I own more FFH than anything. I'm totally comfortable with the models, and I like all three companies for the long-term! Cheers!
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Of course there's fraud out there...probably up to 3-5% of every department...but probably not in the scale you are suggesting. They had carte blanche to find it...they found a tiny fraction of what they imagined they would find, and they had unrestricted access to everything! Maybe much of the fraud is in the places they weren't looking...like right in front of their noses! Cheers!
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Anyone could easily cut a lot from any budget...but you are going to have to eat the pain and fallout from that. That's why they had to rehire back tens of thousands of people they cut from Air Traffic Control, CDC, even more banal government services like the DMV! And if there was solely fraud and abuse, they would have found it with the 18-year old geniuses he put in place, would they have not? Cheers!
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You are focusing on the wrong thing. They don't need 15% CAGR on their equity investments. The three things you should focus on are: Underwriting profit and combined ratios: Investment Leverage: Are they hitting average return? Doesn't matter what investments they invest in or how good/bad they are...are they hitting around 7-8% annualized on average on the total portfolio? If they are writing under 100% and making a profit, have modestly higher leverage than their peers, and are hitting that 7-8% total return on the investment portfolio...you don't need to worry about whether they are good/bad/mediocre investment managers. ITMS...It's The Model Stupid! Cheers!
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Books won't have any influence on short-term prices. Letters are written directly to shareholders...no different than any other company release...10-Q, 10-K, etc. What's nutty is how much irregular activity is allowed to happen today and the SEC and most regulators don't have the manpower to chase after it or even enforce securities regulations. Most regulators in Canadian provinces have a hard time even collecting tens of millions of outstanding fines. Cheers!
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It's still promotion of the company via its culture. The only thing that could prevent any sort of conflict of interest is for directors and executives not to do any sort of media or interviews. And if you think about it...why do they and why should they? I'm not sure they should really! Nor should companies be allowed to pay analysts to put out favorable reports through their retail channels. Cheers!
