Parsad

Anyone know how much debt is coming up for renewal by the U.S. each year for the next 4 years? Anyone know exactly how much debt will be added by Harris or Trump based on their policies over the next 4 years? Is everyone convinced that rates on U.S. debt will continue to drop or remain where they are, even as the Fed continues to unwind their balance sheet? Is Buffett too eager, or does he see that interest rates will have to rise over the next few years? Cheers!

I have been in China! It is a beautiful country that has done absolutely remarkable things historically and especially in the last 20 years. There is an enormous amount to learn there, and the West would benefit from doing so and understanding the people and culture. Anything you would want here, you can easily get in China. For those that have money and bow to the autocracy, you can have a very good life! That is very different than understanding the government which effectually eliminates property rights, enforcement of binding contracts, free speech, criticism of Beijing's policies, legal representation or independent rights endowed to Hong Kong or Taiwan. It's why so many wealthy Chinese live abroad with dual citizenships, but maintain businesses in China. They've moved as much capital as they can over time to other countries with true democratic principles and respect for the law and property rights. Cheers!

It's actually not a gross misrepresentation at all. We had a MRI business in conjunction with an army hospital in Beijing. When they decided to shut the hospital down and move the patients to a larger hospital, they essentially cancelled our contract with them, told us to do what we want with our equipment and that they would not let us be part of a new MRI clinic in the new hospital. On top of that, the cash we have in Beijing has been impossible to retrieve back to Canada after 7 years of fruitless efforts by us, lawyers, accountants and other representatives we hired to try and help. We also had no legal recourse to enforce the binding contract we had, as we were told by several lawyers that the Chinese courts would simply side with Beijing. While this may not be everyone's experience, it certainly was ours. I've also spoken to numerous other business people and Chinese expats who were in similar situations or have been harassed by various Chinese government groups/individuals in Hong Kong and Canada due to their vocalness regarding Chinese government policies, practices and a lack of property rights or enforcement of binding contracts. You can certainly invest and make money in China. But it carries real risks and issues outside the realm of just market risk. Cheers!

Don't try and figure out price action. Buy cheap, sell dear...rinse and repeat! Cheers!

+1! Cheers!

The power of compounding! Cheers!

"We maintain our fair value estimate"...which has gone up consistently for the last 2 years..."for the no moat company"...Cheers!

Buffett & Munger's 3 traits: 1) Intelligence 2) Drive 3) Integrity If you have the first two, but don't have the 3rd one, it's a dangerous thing! Cheers!

I don't know if Ben is capable of doing 22% annualized returns long-term...that's Buffett territory. But I'm pretty sure he's capable of doing 13-15% annualized...and that's all investor's and Fairfax need. Only time will tell. Cheers!

There is nothing wrong with that. An investor being able to sleep at night is very important. Cheers!

Same. I don't need homeruns anymore from my investments. As long as they grow with singles and doubles, I'm fine. Cheers!

Usually, historically Fairfax shareholders have often seen the company in a precarious or challenging situation when markets were rising and things calm...such as their short positions, poor turnarounds, etc. This is the first time in probably 20+ years that Fairfax is steadily making money just from bond and dividend income, and smooth insurance operations. Combine that with no dysfunction in their investment and associates portfolio, and FFH shareholders are having difficulty watching their company actually hitting ROE targets with ease and no encumbrances. They're just not used to this...this is Berkshire territory! Keep it up Prem! Cheers!

They own a good swathe of Kennedy Wilson and have invested billions into their mortgage bonds...that's pretty good exposure to residential/commercial real estate markets. Remember, this is Berkshire 30 years earlier. Give them some time. Look at the core industrial businesses they are investing into in India. They will do the same in North America when they get the opportunity. There is a lot of P/E competition in North America that didn't exist during Berkshire's heyday...so the opportunities are thinner and less frequent. Usually, Fairfax will get their best opportunities when the world is falling apart and liquidity disappears! Cheers!

Prem is widening the investment team pool for the day when he and the old guard (Brian, Roger, Chandran, etc) aren't there anymore. As long as the new managers keep hitting average to good returns, the investment portfolio will provide reasonable gains. Cheers!

Patrick and Warren knew each other very well over the years due to his father Jack. I think Buffett lost contact many years ago. Sad how Patrick went off the deep end in the last few years. Overstock also lost its way by focusing on just housewares, which wiped out a third of their business by that decision. Cheers!

22% annualized over the last five years. Cheers!

The main thing is that Prem's target of 15% ROE for Fairfax is all but guaranteed into 2025/2026. Now what happens thereafter will be based on investment opportunities, underwriting and continuing to make good risk/reward decisions. Cheers!

Francis had an interesting update on Loggerhead's losses in Florida due to Milton. He expected Loggerhead to have losses between $20M and $80M. But they had excellent reinsurance coverage and their net loss will only be $7M. But he expects a lot of insurers, reinsurers and captives to be in financial trouble as Milton went over densely populated areas unlike Helene. He thinks it was one of the worst storms in the last century. I'm hoping Prem and Andy buy reinsurance like Francis...or preferably, he buys reinsurance like them! Cheers!

Just did a sports weekend trifecta! Flew with my brother and cousin-in-law to San Francisco and caught 3 games: Lakers versus Golden State...while Lebron and Steph were there, they didn't play...last preseason game. Chiefs versus 49'ers...fantastic game...the pomp, pageantry and noise at an NFL game is unparalleled! San Jose versus the Colorado Avalanche...got to see McKinnon and Cale Makar live. Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/man-accidentally-sent-527m-bitcoins-150831819.html Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-charges-18-people-companies-190616663.html Cheers!

RIP Rattan Tata...one of India's most brilliant businessmen! Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/09/business/ratan-tata-death/index.html

This thing is so big that the only areas that will escape it probably are Miami and Key West. It looks like Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Orlando are all going to take a hit. Cheers!

Yes, quite easily actually. They have 2.3B in the holding company, so no worries there. And they have excess statutory capital in the insurance businesses, so they would be able to absorb the hit without any real slowdown in insurance growth. Now if there was also an 8.0 earthquake in San Francisco or Los Angeles, that would be worrisome! But they are built to withstand a 5.0 hurricane hitting Miami, an 8.0 earthquake in Los Angeles and a 50% drop in the stock market...all in the same year. Cheers!

+1! Cheers!