Parsad

Gandhi and Martin Luther King weren't wealthy, but I would say they had as much of a social, and indirect economic, impact as any person in history...probably as well as the Suffragettes. Huge classes of displaced citizens/workers that suddenly had the world opened to them, created economic activity, educational opportunity, entrepreneurship and changes in rights...at least until three days ago, where we went back 50 years! Cheers!

I outperformed by about 7 percent annualized in the personal accounts in aggregate between November 1999 and the end of May 2022...14.2% annualized including dividends...a couple of times there was like just one stock in the portfolio (BRK in 1999/2000 and FFH in 2003) as well as a nearly 60% holding of FFH again between late 2020 and mid-late 2021...so the concentration at times helped. The fund on the other hand, had a lot of PDH for the last 8 years and the concentration there did not help...so well...SPY or BRK easily did better! Cheers!

Legitimate question! The one area that no one can replace Buffett is risk management...maybe only Ajit is as good. How many people can see that 1 in a million risk, that somehow over time becomes 1 in 50? To be prepared for that! To write contracts that avoid that! To buy businesses that survive that! Only time will tell. Cheers!

Ajit is far fitter than I am, and every time I've met him over the last 20 years, he seems like he hasn't aged. But he is 70 now. Abel is relatively young at 60...but he's Canadian like myself and probably eats a lot of back bacon and maple syrup! It should be noted that Berkshire will continue to do well, with or without Buffett & Munger, but because of it's sheer size, it will never be the Berkshire of old that grew at 20% annualized. You will probably do marginally better than the S&P500 long-term. Once Ajit is gone too, that advantage will diminish further, probably on par with the S&P500 at best. The most valuable thing to take away from Berkshire is not Berkshire stock, but the teachings of Buffett & Munger around Berkshire. That will do more for you in life than Berkshire stock now at this point. Cheers!

I've only been below 20% cash like 5 times...2000-2001 (Tech Bubble - Value Cheap), 2003/2004 (FFH Collapses From Shorts), 2009/2010 (After Financial Crisis), 2020 (Pandemic), and now again. I'm always early to buy and early to sell, but I get the periods of cheap stocks right almost all of the time! Sadly because I tend to sell early, I usually miss a year or two of upside returns, but then that is made up by the cash holdings which start early too and I don't get hit by the bear markets (other than the pandemic)...for example, I'm up this year 3-4%, while markets are down 19-28%...but as the bull market returns at some point, I'll probably sell a year early at least from the peak! C'est la vie! Cheers!

I don't fall in love with any single stock, even if I named the website after it. I love BRK, but it just isn't cheap enough right now compared to other opportunities. I would say BRK is cheaper than AMZN, which I own, but I'm concerned about Buffett's age. I hope he lives as long as Methusaleh, but that would be wishful thinking. So it's also partly risk management presently. I need a bigger discount to protect against the age risk. Cheers!

I agree with you that margins will shrink slightly, quarter by quarter, as there is always a delay before manufacturers pass the added costs on to retailers, in turn consumers. But that may not impact overall earnings if revenues each quarter are nominally higher due to previous quarter hikes in prices. You have price hikes and product volume shrinkage...that should allow decreases in margins to be softer rather than a harder landing. Especially if interest rates start to have some effect and we start to get some equilibrium between rates, inflation and consumption. I agree with some of the other comments that this will drag out a couple of years...but there will be spurts of losses and rebounds along the way. Won't be a crash landing like 2008/2009 or the pandemic...more like 2000-2002...and you will probably have this continued separation between value and growth. Cheers!

Banks will get hit during a recession, as loan losses will generally increase, but the severity of the losses is dependent on risk management of the loan portfolio. Many banks suffer large consequences during recessions, because they tend to focus their loan portfolio on specific areas, or the quality of the loans deteriorate...such as requiring less in deposits on mortgages, lower credit rating loans, excessive commercial lending, etc. During economic booms, many banks try to keep up with the Joneses, and start to do reckless things. That's why the management of the bank is probably the most important aspect of any investment in banks. Great example is Citigroup compared to Bank of America, and the risk profile of the underlying assets and loan portfolio over the last decade. Cheers!

Are earnings going to get whacked? What is whacked exactly...earnings off 2-3% or earnings off 10%+? From everything I'm seeing, earnings look to be flat or slightly down for the next 2 quarters...I bet you they are good after the Christmas quarter. Drop in consumption is being supported by an increase in the cost of goods sold...since jobs are plentiful, incomes are higher and consumers are still spending. If the average consumer buys 10% less ketchup, but the price is up 7-8%, what is the net hit to revenues? Certainly not a deep recession "whack", but probably a light recession hit. A lot of that is already priced into many stocks. I think this may be a prolonged up and down market...down 20-30%, then a rebound up 30-40%, then down again 15-30%, then up 20-30%...as things unwind, interest rates slowly rise...a new equilibrium has to be set each time, and it won't be a comfortable market like we saw between 2010-2019...it will be a stock picker market. Cheers!

One of the best groups of the 21st century, with arguably one of the great female lead singers/frontwoman...the Yeah Yeah Yeahs and Karen Oh...their latest album, nine years since their last, comes out on iTunes on September 30, 2022! https://www.nme.com/news/music/yeah-yeah-yeahs-announce-long-awaited-new-album-cool-it-down-with-perfume-genius-collaboration-3238197

Banks (conventional banks) because of their leverage generally can thrive in most environments...they make a nominal spread, after relatively fixed expenses, between their lending products and their savings products multiplied by the leverage in asset to equity. As long as they stick to that, they generally can stay out of trouble whether it's an inflationary, deflationary or stagnating environment. The banks that do get into trouble usually have loans in concentrated areas (regional, commercial, housing, etc) that default either because of outlier events...savings and loans crisis, financial bubble in housing, broad economic losses during the Great Depression...or their loan portfolio wasn't diversified enough on a industry/regional level. It's probably one of the simplest businesses to run, but to do it successfully over a long-period of time means excellent risk management by those that run it. Again, I'm talking about conventional banks (large or small). But we hear about bank failures mainly because of poor risk management or greed leads to banks entering lines of business they really shouldn't be in. Cheers!

My pleasure! Cheers!

Looks like oil prices are flattening and reserves are building as recession fears and high prices hit consumers. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-093607544.html

Well it would take three of my brains to make one Buffett brain...so I held 3 times as much cash! Cheers!

I'll do better...I'll give them all to you...in order: FFH, META, ATCO, GOOGL, AMZN, BAC, JEF, OSTK, GE I estimate the portfolio will rise 30-50% in a year or so...50-80% over 2-3 years. At least my expectations say so...reality is another thing! Cheers!

Could be right! In a worse case scenario when I'm out of cash and markets keep falling, I keep trading down to lower and lower P/E's...tightening the spring on the way back up. That's what I did in 2008/2009 and March/April 2020...works like a charm. In March/April of 2020, I even tapped into my line of credit to leverage up as things became stupid cheap! Cheers!

Forget humble! Cheers!

I was nearly 60% cash back in November 2021, and now finally I'm getting close to 100% invested...probably about 95% right now. That usually happens as we approach the bottom...I'm usually early, but we must be starting to get close if I have that many ideas in my portfolio! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-says-retail-investors-finally-125001587.html

Rising rates are terrific for banks, especially with large deposit bases like BAC or JPM. I believe every 25 basis point rise in rates means another $2-3B more in interest income for BAC. Cheers!

That's how it all starts! Enjoy...and keep learning. I've been doing it for almost 25 years now since I first heard of Berkshire back in 1998, bought my first B share in 1999, and then started the original version of this site in 2002...20 years ago February! Cheers!

Lots of ATCO - Atlas Corp. Cheap, cheap, cheap! Cheers!

The one thing I find with all of the streaming channels now is that the percentage of quality programming has declined. While each streamer has a bunch of quality shows that develop great followings, there is whole lotta crap being developed too! It seems as though almost every actor in Hollywood, including fringe stars, now have their own production vehicle, series or movie on Netflix, Amazon, Paramount or Disney. Before, if you were a cable executive, you would have to try and fill your prime time slots, whether day or night, with winners, because you had limited slots. Now, there is shit all over the place and I can't imagine that everyone watches all of this crap. I'm lucky if I can find one good show/movie a week on each of these streaming networks! Cheers!

Stranger Things started off a bit slow, but this first half ended with a bang! I get a huge kick out of how the Duffer brothers get the 90's schtick and atmosphere so correct. Cheers!

Frankly, I think it should be trading around $800 CDN already. I think Prem's comment about getting the share price to $1,000 may have been prescient, as I can see that happening a couple of years from now. Cheers!

This Len Dawson?! It's like when Guy LaFleur would smoke in between periods for the Montreal Canadiens, and then go out and score a hat-trick! Cheers!