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Everything posted by Parsad
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That's where politics and freedoms come in. That being said, do you think Trump feels like Jack Ma today? It also wouldn't take much for politicians in the U.S. to go after Bezos or Musk. We've seen it before many times under anti-competition initiatives or practices. Any company gets too large, and the U.S. government goes after them. Cheers!
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This is all true, but this type of attitude also leads to complacency. China's GDP 20 years ago 1.5T...China's GDP today 18T. India's GDP 20 years ago 0.5T...India's GDP today 3.5T. US GDP 20 years ago 10.5T...US GDP today 23T. Outside of politics and freedoms, if you have money, the lifestyle in China and India is as good or better than the lifestyle in the US. It would just take one reasonable Chinese President and one reasonable Indian Prime Minister, who would agree to work together and form a free trade agreement, to change the entire economic dynamic of the world. The U.S. has the advantage, but they are going to have to keep working damn hard to keep that advantage. Charlie Munger called it a decade ago when he said, "We may have witnessed the apex of a great civilization." Cheers! I've always invested in North America, but I'm small enough to do so. Larger investors and institutions will have to look abroad as the global economy grows.
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If they hit $900-1000 per share in the next couple of years...which seems very feasible barring any major global catastrophes or market crash...those TRS are going to be looking pretty damn good! Cheers!
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Again, I totally agree with you. META is my largest position after Fairfax. I also bought a ton of GOOGL, AMZN, JEF and OSTK...as well as ATCO. I'm just saying that investor's crying unfair that the tender offer came and is lower than they would have preferred is not Prem's fault...not even Sokol's fault in my opinion. If he has a choice between bringing in ONE with deep pockets that would help ATCO thrive, and minority shareholders who are along for the ride, that's a sacrifice that has to be made for the future of ATCO. It sucks, but that's life! He's also going to have to live with the consequences of a large partner with far greater influence over the company than minority shareholders would have had as well. Cheers!
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Nice timing Lessthaniv! I bought a bunch then too, but was averaging down from a bit earlier...so I made just under 30% in a little over a month selling at $14.30. I have a bunch still in my taxable/corporate accounts...will most likely let those play out and reap the dividend until any deal is consummated or the offer is rescinded. If rescinded, I'll hold those shares. If the price falls, I'll buy them all back in the non-taxable accounts too! Cheers!
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SJ, I fully agree with you that the 30% return in a few weeks was pure luck. At the same time, whether it was silence or not, there was little discussion in the way that ATCO was cheap. Perhaps, you stayed out of that discussion, but it was abnormally quiet from the rest of the posters. There just seems to be a hell of a lot more confidence that the $14.45 offer is low, rather than ATCO at $10.30 a month earlier was low. And that seems a bit disingenuous when the wilderness suddenly howls..."unfair, unfair"! The screams of "Prem is ripping off the minority shareholders again" by many was premature as well, since we now know that Sokol or ONE are the lead on the deal. Cheers!
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June 23 on the "What are you buying thread?" in General Discussion, I wrote "Lots of ATCO! Cheap, cheap, cheap!" Didn't see anyone respond to that. When I posted I was buying on here...a few people asked me to justify why I thought it was cheap at $11. Again, very few buyers. I also bought lots of META and GOOGL...but I had plenty of time to add lots of ATCO. So, I didn't see anyone really scream out or even politely state that ATCO was cheap in the last month or two. Now, people are saying $14.45 would have been called out as ridiculously low. The offer may not be what people really wanted, but I also call bullshit on it being unfair or lowball based on sentiment and behavior on here. Frankly, I don't think it's going to get the majority it needs...so either they will up the offer or pull the offer. In the meantime, I'll sit on the cash or buy something else that is still really cheap. Cheers!
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I'm sure they did approve. But the deal was brokered and led by ATCO, not FFH, to improve ATCO's long-term prospects. Cheers!
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Also, based on the Bidco information on the Fairfax 2022 thread, FFH isn't even leading this transaction. Up to $1.4B is being put up by ONE, $175M by the Washington Family and $30M by Sokol. Fairfax is not putting anything in. So Prem isn't really screwing over ATCO shareholders as suggested by many on here. They just remain the largest shareholder after it goes private. It looks like this deal was led by David and primarily one to strengthen ATCO's partnerships and add another deep pocket partner for the future. Shipping rates will eventually crater in late 2024 or so...maybe Sokol is preparing for that. Cheers!
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It also means that Prem isn't screwing over ATCO shareholders as originally suggested. Cheers!
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Just a reminder...while we have some of the most intelligent investors on the cobf board, any tax, accounting, financial, estate planning queries/answers should always be qualified by an outside expert in that area. If something goes wrong without discussing it with a qualified outside expert, that is your responsibility and error. Cheers!
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The one thing no one has mentioned in this is that from a Fairfax investor perspective, this is a real win-win if the transaction is approved and consummated. Why? - Fairfax gets a great business with great operators at a fair price. - Fairfax solidifies the relationship even further with Sokol and Chen! Could there be two better investor/operators we could have added to the Fairfax team than David Sokol and Bing Chen? Fairfax shareholders always bitch and complain about the quality of acquisitions. Sokol's got quite the history on building and finding quality businesses. A few years ago David Sokol was Buffett's heir apparent. Now he's working for Fairfax. David brings on Bing Chen who proves to be a savvy operator and leader. Now Bing works for Fairfax. As a Fairfax shareholder, I'll be quite happy if these two guys are working for us, not just partnered with us. Cheers!
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Sure. We should have asked seniors to stop aging as well, since 80% of deaths were seniors over 65. Actually, maybe the CDC should have warned everyone about a pandemic before it happened and then nothing would have been closed, since 50% of the population would have gone on a diet and exercise program before the pandemic arrived. Cheers!
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After the pandemic started, overloaded Canadian hospitals were inundated with patients. I know, because my family lost 7 people to Covid in 2 years...and almost 2 more! I saw how the hospitals were getting hammered and that was with social distancing, closures, masking and vaccinations. Most hospitals operated at a triage level for 12 months with nurses working double-shifts! I can't imagine what it would have been like without closures and distancing. There were some half million surgeries delayed due to Covid...can you imagine how many would have been delayed or cancelled if the system was flooded only with Covid patients?! Cheers!
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C'mon SJ! The Watsa family has controlled the votes since the company started. Do you really think they would eff over all their friends and family who also own Fairfax stock...including their staff! They are making the takeover bid for ATCO to benefit FFH shareholders. Yeah, it isn't fair value to ATCO shareholders...but I don't see anyone else pounding the door to acquire ATCO. Investors always knew that there was a chance Fairfax would acquire the remaining stock, including possibly buying out the Washington family as well. Well, instead FFH, the Washington Family and Sokol are buying out the minority shareholders. If we vote it down. Then they could up the offer. Or they could just keep things the same and the stock may drop back down to $11 again. That's what makes a market! Cheers!
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Yeah, that would be nicer and more fair to those that don't want to sell and understand the value of the company, but really, in a capitalist market, we're bitching about a company making a capitalist decision?! I loaded up on the stock over the last year, while some on here were bitching about how it was fairly priced considering the industry and possibly deteriorating shipping rates...now people are complaining that one of the majority shareholders also finds it cheap and makes a takeover offer? Crazy! Should I feel bad that I bought shares at $10.25...somehow taking advantage of shareholders who didn't know what the value was? Cheers!
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Stubble...do you see another offer? It's like you expect Fairfax to pay full fair value for everything they acquire...you guys do realize they are in the business of making money, not giving it away! If investor's don't like the offer...vote and make sure it fails. It can't pass unless the majority of non-consortium shareholders vote in favor of the takeover. But to blame the company making an offer is kind of absurd, isn't it? Even if the offer isn't what you might like it to be. Cheers!
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It's just a way to draw attention to ATCO's silly share price. If they get majority approval, they get a deal, shareholders get liquidity and Fairfax shareholders still benefit through Fairfax shares. If they don't get it, the stock price stays up closer to $14-15 and they retain the core group of ATCO shareholders while the consortium still controls the company. It's win-win either way...and relatively fair, as the majority of non-consortium shareholders have to approve. Cheers!
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They didn't! The bathhouses and orgies went underground. Straight people were afraid to report their symptoms and illness, because they might be criticized or assumed to be gay. Do you remember Charles Barkley's criticisms of Magic Johnson at the All Star game? The stigma around Johnson's personal life. Yet Johnson is as healthy as a horse today with zero count blood thanks to the cocktail, and Barkley is essentially whoring himself out to LIV to bring him over even though he can barely walk! Cheers!
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Are you still madly confused about why the masks, distancing, closures and vaccines were pushed?! It wasn't to stop the spread of Covid, but to try and make sure the system wasn't overwhelmed at once...a flood, rather than an avalanche! If the system had been overwhelmed, then you'd be bitching about how they fucked that up too! Cheers!
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Global food crisis coming? If so, how will it play out?
Parsad replied to nafregnum's topic in General Discussion
In the 70's the outcry was that we would be out of food by the millennium. Guess what? Today, we produce twice as much food, with half the resources...technology and science increased yields and improved farming methods. I can't believe that science and technology will not continue that trend. I imagine in the next 20-30 years, a lot of food production will be done by robots. Already large scale farms utilize automated tillers and harvesters that use GPS to do their job and work 24 hours a day. Vertical farms will grow food close to city centers and maximize water efficiency. Global warming will decimate some agricultural centers, but create new ones where the climate becomes more favorable. Developing countries that are becoming first world economies will have access to capital and technology that will improve their production efficiencies. One day, it may be hard to feed the planet...but I don't think that will happen in my life time or probably the next couple of generation's lifetime. Cheers! -
Not shifting the goalposts...just saying that stigmatizing any group is inaccurate and simply delays reporting, testing and eventual treatment of the disease. It serves no one! Cheers!
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The stupidity around the AIDS epidemic was that it was assumed and stigmatized as a "gay man" disease. When in fact, it affected anyone and everyone if you came into contact with HIV infected blood. It disproportionately affected gay men because of the ease of transmission through anal sex compared to vaginal sex. Promiscuity combined with unsafe sex practices, both amongst homosexuals and heterosexuals, led to increased spread of HIV. From the study and the statistics you provided, should we not call Monkeypox the White Homosexual/Bisexual Pox? Cheers!
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Greg...for such an intelligent guy, you really make some silly associations. Like HIV, which was high amongst the gay population initially, not because they were gay, but because of the types of sexual contact engaged in made them more susceptible to blood on blood contact. Monkeypox can be transmitted between you and your wife, as easily as anyone else, depending on the type of sexual contact you engage in and the skin to skin contact involved. https://www.hrc.org/resources/monkeypox-and-what-you-need-to-know?utm_medium=ads&utm_source=GoogleSearch&utm_content=GeneralInfo&utm_campaign=GoogleGrant&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzt7V7Nqr-QIVvzytBh2oiQTyEAAYAyAAEgJKBvD_BwE Cheers!
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Geez! Spanish Flu originated in Kansas! Exactly my point. Cheers! https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC340389/
