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Parsad

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Everything posted by Parsad

  1. With the rupee where it is, I would hope that FFH and FIH are injecting more capital into India and looking at more businesses to acquire. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/india-rupee-drops-another-record-035250125.html
  2. It's one of the great movies ever made. Costner cemented his reputation as an American legend with that movie. Has to be seen on the big screen to appreciate the cinematography and when they are riding with the buffalo. The other guy today on the type of run Costner was on back then is surprisingly Bradley Cooper. He's got nine Oscar nominations now already...never won! I suspect he'll get a number of nominations and probably a win with the Leonard Bernstein bio movie he's doing. Cheers!
  3. That was not a good western. Blazing Saddles was a good, funny western. Million Ways was more comparable to the Three Amigos! Cheers!
  4. Both were directed by Howard Hawks, thus the clever dialogue and charismatic takes of the stars. I still have a mad crush on Angie Dickinson from what she looked like in Rio Bravo! Look at this woman back in 1959! I forgot to mention all of the westerns by John Ford...without him there would be no western genre. "The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance" was his best western and arguably his best movie. Cheers!
  5. Yes, seen it. Shirley MacLaine was a beauty. She stole many of the scenes from Clint...that's very hard to do! Cheers!
  6. The Sergio Leone westerns are the standard! For a Few Dollars More is #1 for me all time...then A Fistful of Dollars is #2...the landscape, gritty cinematography, Ennio Morricone's classic scores, superb Italians playing Mexican banditos, Clint's charisma, chewed off cigar and poncho, Lee Van Cleef's grit and voice, the clever but sparse dialogue, and the fantastic gunfights. Hands down the best westerns ever made...everything else is a derivative! I love Westerns...probably seen almost every one ever made! My father was a huge fan of them, and I watched many with him. My love of Westerns has never been quenched. When you see a character like "Stumpy" in "Rio Bravo", how can you not love the genre? I agree, I wish there was a good one made every year, but unfortunately we don't get them enough, or the newer generations simply don't enjoy them as much. A pretty good one that came out recently was "News of the World" with Tom Hanks...who surprisingly had not been in a Western until now and the small role he had in "1883". "Hell or High Water"...kind of a Western...was one of my favorites of the last decade. The remakes of "3:10 to Yuma" and "True Grit" were good...different enough from the originals. "The Revenant" was good, but very bleak. "Django Unchained" and "The Hateful Eight" were fun and entertaining. The Denzel "Magnificent Seven" was quite good too...the classic with Yul Brynner still rules. "The Sisters Brothers" was really good. One that I haven't seen yet, but I heard good things about is "Bone Tomahawk". Cheers!
  7. I can't believe I had not seen "Whiplash" till now! 7 years after it was made. In my top ten movies of all time. Just amazing...thrilling...can't give it enough superlatives! Cheers!
  8. Now we see who has been swimming naked! This is the comeuppance of a decade of excess, overspending, reckless HELOC's, speculation, etc coming to an end. All those luxury cars that we see whizzing around Vancouver and Toronto...well, some of them are going to have to join Uber and Doordash to make ends meet! You have multiple leveraged houses with variable rate mortgages...you are in trouble! You've been using your house as an ATM through HELOC's...you are in trouble! You've been racking up credit card debt...you are in trouble! You've been living paycheck to paycheck with no emergency fund and have lots of debt...you are f**ked! Credit counselling and debt collection are going into a hard market. 5 year fixed rate mortgages in Canada are now well above 5% and are expected to hit 6-7% before the end of the year. 18 months ago you could get a 5 year fixed rate mortgage in Canada for 2.9%! Variable rate mortgages are now at 3.5-4%...double what they were 18-24 months ago, and expected to hit 5% by year end. This reset was sorely needed! Inflation is forcing Bank Governors to do what the system needed them to do earlier. Cheers!
  9. Just finished watching all of them. Sort of a blend between 24 and Reacher. Was excellent! Pratt was just fantastic in it! Cheers!
  10. I disagree with you on Zoom...certainly not $100B, but it is one of the few millennial stocks with some legs, no debt and real profits. I think it will get to a certain size and competitors will say easier just to take it out. Cheers!
  11. Have been binge watching The Terminal List on Amazon tonight with Chris Pratt. Really terrific! Probably Pratt's best performance and role. Cheers!
  12. Actually Buffett said that if he were managing small sums of money...less than $50M...he would be invested 100% all of the time. That on small sums of money, he could easily generate 50% per annum. So the truth is, that as much as I'm a Buffett fan, I'm never going to do 50% per annum and likely never even half that! I'm more of a distressed investment investor. If I can't find enough distressed stuff, I hold cash...Ben Graham's process more than Buffett's process. So the fact that you have cash at all, unless you have well over $50M in assets, you aren't following Buffett either. Cheers!
  13. Sure. But you were wrong on cash at the beginning of the year. I believe that's 101 times now that I've said that! Cheers!
  14. Greg felt that cash was a horrible holding regardless of environment...even when markets were at historical levels and various areas had huge speculative valuations. You feel that cash is better in this environment even though opportunities are now presenting themselves after a 20% plus drop in the S&P500 and 30% plus drop in the Nasdaq. Some areas are down 60-90%...even some stocks that are fully profitable, have little debt and generate steady cash flows. Yet you think there is still superior optionality in cash. That's what I mean that Greg was being theoretical previously...that equities would be superior going forward...and you are now being theoretical...that cash will be superior going forward. Cheers!
  15. Good for you! Just make sure you put that cash to work when you think the opportunity is there. Otherwise you'll be kicking yourself if you miss the bulk of the rebound of the next bull market. Remember, it could very well be a sideways market where the market has now dropped 20% plus and stays in a range for the next 2-5 years with slight upward and downward movements. Holding cash when there are quality stocks out there paying 3-6% dividends with potential 50% upside on stock price and 10-15% downside, is a hell of a lot better than zero downside risk and near zero interest income in a highly inflationary environment. You could even move to 50% equities and 50% cash and hedge your bets. That would be far better than near 100% cash in this environment. Cheers!
  16. These are all trailing indicators. We were in recession before statistics actually proved we were. We saw inflation before the CPI started indicating it. We knew consumers would get hit as rates started to rise and CPI indicators showed that inflation was present. The market reacts well before the recession is actually proven. The market also rebounds well before the bottom of the economy is proven. Don't get sucked into the hype and miss out on opportunities. Cheers!
  17. Fully agree that Greg has been wrong since the beginning of the year, and I've told him so hundreds of times now! But you're probably going to be equally wrong when the bottom does come, and you end up missing the rebound. And I fully agree with your quote...in theory, theory and practice are the same, in practice they are not. You are being theoretical now after a 20% plus drop...not practical...just like Greg was theoretical at the beginning of the year. Cheers!
  18. I would assume that 90% of people on the message board would state their disdain for McDonald's and its food, yet the company has been a cash cow for nearly 70 years. Billions and billions of hamburgers sold is the tag line now, because they could no longer count them all. Good businesses don't necessarily have to mean best quality...just that they make money hand over fist, and See's has done that. Plus Mary See's was Canadian and does actually make good chocolate! Cheers!
  19. Berkshire's modus operandi is that it will buy your business and never sell it. It's why it never sold Dexter shoes. That gave Berkshire a bit of an advantage when hunting for private, family held businesses to acquire. If Berkshire sold off See's, Dexters, etc it would reduce the opportunities available to it. So yes, theoretically he could have sold See's and compounded that money quicker, but then he might not have been offered or sold Nebraska Furniture Mart, National Indemnity, Borsheims, NetJets, Marmon and a host of other private businesses. Cheers!
  20. There is no way to time it perfectly. That's pure luck. If you find stuff that you think is cheap...buy it. If not, hold the cash. But don't try and time a bottom. I had tons of cash, and I started finding things. Naturally, the markets continued downwards and I continued averaging in, my portfolio value has moved very little from year end 2021, yet I've been averaging into quality stocks at lower and lower prices. Eventually, the market will bottom. I might be down a few percent by then. But will rebound anywhere from 40-80% over the ensuing 18-24 months. Well worth the 5-10% of pain I may suffer averaging in. No one can time the bottom. But I know most people get the rebound wrong too! You don't want to get both wrong, and still be sitting with tons and tons of cash. Otherwise, don't invest in the market. And as the market's rebound, don't sit there and hold stuff that gets expensive either. You can always move some to cash again...especially if you are doing this mostly in non-taxable accounts. Cheers!
  21. There are tons of things the Fed can still do if a crisis happened: - Lower rates again. - Stop unwinding and increase quantitative easing. - Reduce corporate tax rates. - Reduce personal income tax rates. - Suspend payroll taxes. - Suspend sales taxes. - Suspend fuel/environmental taxes. - Force price reductions in certain industries...pharmaceutical, agricultural, wholesale, etc. - Removing bad assets from the books of financial institutions and move them onto the Federal Government's books - Inject capital into industries and issue warrants to themselves...these worked extremely well during the banking/brokerage crisis. - Remember, while the Fed's balance sheet isn't as attractive as it was pre-GFC, company balance sheets are better...so you could force mergers in troubled industries. - Force banks, which are very well capitalized, to hold mortgages and assets instead of letting them default, etc. - An inflationary environment, while painful, is a result of demand, growth and a hot economy...better than a dead or cold economy with high unemployment and decreasing incomes. - Consumers have more money from pandemic stimulus than they did pre-pandemic...so as economy slows from higher rates, they will not do as badly as a normal inflationary/recession environment where their balance sheets may have been over indebted and lacked liquidity. Cheers!
  22. Way to go Daphne! Nice. Cheers!
  23. What do you mean like cocaine??? Cheers!
  24. The equity and bond losses will be more than offset by the gains in the RFP and JAB transactions. Add insurance underwriting and interest income, and Fairfax will be probably the only insurer with positive earnings in the 2nd and 3rd Q of 2022. While sitting on all that cash that they can put to work in equities or bonds that have taken one hell of beating this year so far! Cheers!
  25. The price was $X.XX/100g, so I had no idea how much the chocolates weighed, as she was holding them and putting them in the bag as I selected. Cheers!
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