frommi

Don't want to crush the party, but doesn't congress need to allow buying crypto assets? The Working Group shall evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile, potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts. This is from the executive order and there is no mention of buying any crypto assets, its about confiscation. To me the tweet looks like a way to provide exit liquidity to his boys. So don't dream to big about this.

Yes, from what i know its around 3 million packages a day or a billion each year. Will be interesting how that gets handled. Its possible they just don't let anything through that is undeclared.

“We see immediate recessionary consequences for some of the economies involved and broad-based negative read-across to the world economy,” according to Deutsche Bank. So probably deflationary first, inflationary after the recession.

Since it also hits canada, cross border e-commerce is dead?

I am trying to process this information and thinking about which businesses are impacted. Long side: BTI,MO, maybe small american businesses? (which ones and why?) Short side: PDD,AMZN?, companies/influencers using drop shipping?

I enjoy the process of going against the crowd and outsmart other people. But there are times when i feel like an idiot. But than there are these days where the index is down 2% and your portfolio is up 5% and you run around like you are the king of pop. Would really miss these days

Have you checked LKQ, it trades at the same multiples, but with higher FCF Yield? To me it looks safer and with similar upside, whats your take on that? Do i miss something?

In the endgame i think we will get thousands of robots that replace humans in every task possible. The true winners are the companies that sell stuff to consumers that use a lot of labour right now that can be replaced. All the robot stuff and AI software will get commoditized. Heck were is even the moat in something like software when you can replace it in an eyeblink by some AI generated code?

Yeah but that is what most companies were buying these pricy chips for. Training is a one time thing, especially if at some point you have compressed all available quality data (books,papers, etc.) into the system. What should additional training lead to? If the interference side runs on a smartphone (which is now possible in the future) than all these data center investments were for the bin. And even if you don't trust the deepseek model, i am very sure that OpenAI and Meta will produce a model in relative short timeframe that will be as efficient as the deepseek model, because it is open source and everything of it can be copied.

From a technical point i would argue that BTI has just broken out and can run a lot higher now, especially if the tech slump continues. (look at what happened 2000->2008). 5% earnings growth over the longer term is still respectable when your stock trades at a PE of 8.5. I only sold out of MO because that looks like the weakest and least diversified/future proof of all tobacco stocks, but still have >30% of my portfolio in BTI,PM,IMB and STG.

The thing is that its entirely possible that some day a black swan might hit and that AI:0 number goes to AI:>6 billion, because the AI deemed humans as their enemy or largest roadblock.

sold some TAP to buy more STO:EVO.

I get that it might seem unusual at first to ask guests for a financial contribution, but maybe the couple simply didn’t have another way to make the celebration they dreamed of possible. It’s often less about 'paying' and more about sharing a special moment together. Sometimes it’s a shame to let details like that stop you—after all, it’s the memories and the time spent together that really matter. Who knows, you might have missed a great opportunity to create some beautiful memories and social connections.

As a german I totally agree with what Charlie has written. And its not the first time immigration would help us. After world war II, lots of turkish and italian people came to germany. They were called "Gastarbeiter" / guest workers. That all contributed to the "Wirtschaftswunder".

bought some PEP

Funny thing is that a lot of people think that value investing doesn't work anymore or that the lessons from Grahams book are outdated, yet my automated NCAV system has produced 50% annual returns since the covid crash in 2020.

Yes Marks son. And yes also this board. The true value investors here are rare, at least that is my impression. Most people here are now crypto gurus?

Sometimes i think that every generation has to relearn the same lessons again, because young investors are not able to learn from their parents/grandparents because they think they know better. His son is probably in for a rude awakening. (as is most of this board)

When Syria is considered safe (which is not sure at the moment), i am ok with sending them back when they have no work in germany. Even the SPD which is one of the more leftist parties will do this, i think this is common sense. As is helping people that need help. And to the gated community and armed protection, we don't have such wierd things in germany. We also don't run around with guns or knives like you guys in the US .

Examples of Countries Often Considered Unsafe Syria: Due to ongoing civil war, severe destruction, and persecution. Afghanistan: Taliban rule, restrictions on women, and targeted violence. Ukraine: War with Russia You can't deny people coming from these countries at the border, because of the united nations refugee convention from 1951. Ensure asylum seekers have access to fair processes to assess their claims. Provide refugees with at least the same basic rights as other foreigners residing in their territory. Not expel or return individuals to territories where their lives or freedoms are at risk. The time it takes to process an asylum claim in Germany varies depending on the individual case, the country of origin, and administrative factors. On average, the process can take anywhere from several months to over a year. Btw. this stuff all comes from ChatGPT, i didnt make it up. So these people will at least be in the country until the claims are processed and NO political party can do something about it.

The avg german gas price is double in 2023/2024 than what it was from 2014->2020 and there was a huge spike (10x the avg of 2014->2020) in 2022 when putin invaded ukraine. Lots of companies (for example VW, BMW, Thyssen or BASF) produced their own power with the gas because it was cheaper than from the grid. According to the AFD the Syrians ARE the problem. These people came in waves to germany and typically as long as you don't have your refugee status approved you are not allowed to work. Germany bureaucracy is VERY slow in processing these claims. That leaves these people not being able to work, what do you think they do all day long? Of course they get on wrong paths. But no political party blames this as the root cause, the only answer is send the refugees home or block them from coming into the country, which is also not possible because they have a right to get asyl. And to the EV production, right now there is no other country that can compete with the prices at which you can produce these cars in china. China copied everything from german production facilities build in their countries, perfected it and now are subsidizing their own car production.

Unlike the US, the german powerhouse was build on cheap energy from Russia and selling cars to China. Both fronts collapsed, and that was easy to see years earlier. The AFD has no solution for this, but no party really has, because its a hard place to be. The demographic is also a huge problem which will hurt the germans in the next years. Immigration is probably the only fix for that, but the AFD and now also the CDU as biggest political blocks are working against it. The problems will probably get a lot worse before it gets better. Maybe killing the debt ceiling and spending money like crazy on infrastructure and education can rescue them. (AFD or CDU don't really want that, at least as far as i know) Maybe a coalition of SPD and CDU goes into that direction this time, but that coalition created the debt ceiling in 2009 under Merkel, so i doubt it. Its funny that all countries in europe work with debt/GDP ratios of >120%, but germany has 80% while its infrastructure crumbles and it secures all debt the other countries issue via the EU central bank.

IBKR. Maybe check your trading rights?

2026 Calls on EVO