dealraker

Reds I look foward to your logical side returning, you've got a fun-to-interact-with demeanor that's buried beneath that damn Trump fantasy.

My view doesn't change based on stock prices nor economic data. Good data and rising markets bring arrogance and put-downs while bad data and down markets bring the dominating feature of all - the grievance dance. Those that love DJT, and that group does have large numbers of come-and-goers, give too much credit to his business "success" and his ability to lead and solve problems. Those that despise DJT, and that group also has a bunch of come-and-go people, give too much credit to his business "success" and his ability to lead and solve problems. Donald does an excellent job of random waffling, moody envious old man bat shit crazy stuff that without a doubt is the most media dominating behavior of all time. The less logical the more some like it; the more inconsistent the more some can't get enough of it. And DJT loves getting people to fight so he can watch and instigate. Some people think they are gaining and thus become obsessed over the empowerment they feel while some feel belittled and destined for a terrible life. My guess is neither gets what they think they'll get, both will get about the same outcome. Nothing has changed for Donald for half a century except that the platform is now global and most importantly he has rescued himself from financial failure. The skill that DJT excels with is being able to crawl out from nobody-else-gains chaos with a nice paycheck.

Bought 370 shares at just below $92. Will buy more in similar amounts if the price falls further. Not sure there's a quick rebound coming for a while.

Below is comments from Wells Fargo on BRO quarter. From my many years of owning the brokers I would say Spek is correct but that this is the repeated cycle of insurance pricing. We had quite the hard market for some time. I look for the brokers to continue to grow, a toll booth on the economy. Choose your starting point. The good: The EBITDA margin of 36.7% beat our 34.9% and improved 100bps from last year. The margin benefited from: (1) investment income of $36m, above our $19.4m (with $13m from the Accession capital, which equated to a 70bps benefit to the margin), and (2) higher contingent commissions of $45m (higher than our $33m). FCF was $310m (higher than our $221m) with CFO at 25.3% of revenue (favorable to 24-26% target, although co said would be lower due to tax payments that were pushed to Q2). The bad: While margin beat, it was mostly from Corporate (on higher investment income from $13m of capital raised for Accession deal) and Programs (52.8% vs our 49.5%) which benefited from higher contingents. If we back out 70bps from the $13m of extra NII and then assume extra contingents came on at 90% margin, margins would have beat by less (35.5% vs our 34.9%). Wholesale margin was in-line (at 34.1%) and Retail margin missed (at 27.5% vs our 27.8% and deteriorated by 50bps from last Q2). The ugly: Organic slowed and missed in all businesses and is shaping up to be the worst of the brokers for the quarter (MMC at 4%, AON at 6%, AJG guided Brokerage to 5.5%). Retail organic was only 3% (slowing from 4.1% and missing our 5.4%) and the company had guided to growth improving from the Q1 level with FY expected to be 1% greater than Q1. Wholesale organic of 3.9% also slowed from 6.7% and missed our 6.0%. Programs organic was 4.6%, also slowing from 13.6% in Q1 and missing our 7.9%. Ticker BRO Upside/(Downside) to Target 23.8% Price (07/28/2025) $102.58 52 Week Range $97.85 - 125.68 Market Cap (MM) $29,235 Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset. NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate Elyse Greenspan, CFA Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Nicholas Annitto Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Hristian Getsov Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Westar Zong Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Got me!

LOL...as Mr. Market's rise keeps the cubs falling in line trumping louder and louder, we know Mr. Market is always right in the short term. But there's a bit of irony too. As the increasingly bold talking (maybe now practicing their own raspy voices?) cubs are pumping iron in their a/c sterilized gyms surrounded by mirrors... the damn guy in charge of all this assured economic "success" is gay and lives in a pink house in Charleston!

Yes to the first paragraph. The second one Ralf seems ideal but impossible to me.

I'd not be surprised if the merger was greatly affected by the president's input whether it be shipping rates or whatever, the number of ways this could go politically are many. That would likely be discussed on the politics page, not here. But this is a place I'd think lots of attention could be gained if desired. Personally I think having 2 US rails nationwide would be good/efficient for the country in the long term.

Although the Norfolk Southern stock I own is that from my grandmother and thus has been "in the family" now for over 84 years (I inherited 1/27th of it in 1976) I have no nostalgia as to owning it. The railroads need to do something to grow sales and volumes as these have stalled overall now for years. I'm in favor of whatever makes the business better for shareholders and customers. Two or so years ago my cousin Tom Smith, a fabulous and bright CPA, researched our holdings and said we'd gotten a 12% annual return since the original investment.

Viking's deeps dives are part of the equation, the underlying story that he presents to just hold the stock is the major factor of wealth building. Most can't stop the many factors of over thinking that lead to impulsive trading.

I don't agree with Cubs much but the last sentence is one I've believed for about 50 years but have a hard time getting non-Trumpers to understand. Nothing sticks to Donnie J, never has and won't in his lifetime. The good news is that anyone who tries to live and act like Trump - and many will try - after he's gone won't succeed. Cubs and others have always thought that all of us non Trumpers consistently think something is going to bring him down. I have never, not once, believed any of that. "Teflon Trump" is the name all of my family uses and has for decades. What destroys others careers makes Trump's more powerful. It has ALWAYS been this way and ALWAYS will! Call it cult or whatever, but people will go to bat for this man even if it ruins their lives. One of the things that I do think though is that after Trump is gone ("gone" in this case basically means out of power- and that may not come until death) there will be those that come before the law and get consequences. It is best, if you are a Trump soldier, that you think clearly about your status realistically and not think it is related to his- because I assure you it is not.

One more time...if you want a shingle roof anywhere near Lexington NC you will have illegal men doing the work. Same with framing your home and pouring/finishing concrete. Oh and I did have a metal roof put on my boat garage in 2018 after my neighbor accidentally burned it down. That was done by a local metal building business that we often coordinate with. The foreman got to the job early in the morning and said to me, "Not sure who's going to show up today..." And it got more interesting from there as two showed up in an hour or so, you know the Lilly whites we all trust, without shoes. LOL, I told the foreman, "I've got shoes that will fit them." He replies, "No, don't give them shoes...they'll sell them and won't show up for work tomorrow." I'll do the proper thing next time, I'll have some Amish guys buggie on down here. As for the walk the walk comments and make a donation to charity comment? When did you gain the role of telling me what to do in life? What a fucking babyfied chicken shit comment.

Completely irrelevant to anything I wrote. I hired the standard legal entity/people (2 co-owned) to roof my home; the foreman was legal; the workers I had no clue about. I did not shop around for the lowest price, this company is generally thought to have higher than normal prices because they are well-known to do fabulous work. You too are using services and products of those you desperately want to run out of the country --- as is Trump. 80% of those in my area are Trumpers, they all use the same companies with undocumented workers. And they love the service and the work ethic of these guys. All the local contractors here are Trumpers, they all use subs dominated by illegals.

It always looks expensive, my 1994 original shares cost basis is 72 cents or so and I added when you did in the 60's - a couple years ago - and again today.

I have no issue with that. We need legal people though to do things that seem outside of what our legals currently are able and willing to do. We just began this journey, it may not be a smooth one.

Guess I need to hire you before I post? LOL, you knew precisely what I meant.

Again, not here Reds. This ain't West VA.

I assure you Trump also indirectly employs illegals cubs.

Reds you live in your own made up fantasy world as far a legals and illegals. Not happening. I go to builders conventions several times a year where we discuss such issues. Maybe you should too.

Reds again and again and again, you will not find anyone to re-roof your home who doesn't employ illegals. I'm a pretty physical guy, even at 71, as I'm 5'11" and 180 lbs and every three days still do an upper body workout that includes three sets of 20 pull ups. But re-roofing a house? Can't go there. I did use pully's and cables to cut 5 large trees recently, that my neighbor and I enjoyed. Running a chain saw? No problem! But I'm too fragile to frame and roof houses, and the contractor I called is legal, his Forman is legal, but from there it goes south.

Again Cubs, the standard white guy isn't anywhere around in this business and hasn't been for decades in my location. Saving money? I could absolutely care less, the last thing on my mind E-V-E-R. Predicting Trumps calamity? That's your fake news Cubs, my view is that Trump is easily building wealth faster than 99.999999999999% of all Americans. Successes? That's your filter cubs. Trump can mouth about something and you are all over COBF claiming victory. If he uses his cute gravely voice? Double victory is your claim. We will see how it goes cubs. I'll ask you again, "How are you doing?" You seem to spend very little time thinking about the things COBF is founded upon.

Cubs not sure the last two paragraphs are worth your time to type repeatedly, I never think about much in the over-the-top-absolute terms like you do. For instance today I just went out for an hour road cycle with friends while my home is being re-roofed by (of course) those undocumented types (I asked the foreman...all 9 of his workers today are undocumented) ---- while at the same time I'm not for open borders and know few if any (none is the actual figure) who are. My re-roof cost $3000 some 25 years ago, today is is about $16,000...and if it wasn't for the un-doc's it would likely be $30k. Life is great...if you can stand it!

I'd say it is a tad different than the terms of far right or conservative. We live in within a world of intense Trump belief, belief that he is skilled, above others, and knows all. He can go anywhere politically and reach a substantial support base. He's gifted with this now ongoing 60 year ability to gain an approving and admiring following, those with the willingness to view all things positive involving Trump. In the past it has supported his journey, not others; we'll see how it does with ours. We are on first base in the first inning.

Just think, if and when all these glorious benefits of Trump-ism stick? Ole dealraker will get the same share as our dominant Red Cap COBF bunch who spend certainly half their daylight hours conjuring up glorious presentations. It's sort of like Munger's sit on your hands model...or something like that. LOL, being silly of course.

I got Classics II on 6/22/96. I've re-read a few of the chapters since then - a delightful book.