dealraker

The stock market whipped Trump's ass yesterday. The budget deficit, trade deficit, and bond market are next.

But now without tariffs the vast migration of business to the US is already history. Sad, sad,sad...I was so hopeful.

As was easily predictable, events now controlling Trump. "Back and forth we go like two branches in a storm." Maroon lyrics in tune Sunday Morning.

As to responding to Reds, it isn't good or bad, but for a long time Reds I have thought that by far, by leaps and bounds, you are easily the most repetitive poster on COBF. So maybe we are all repetitive?

Remember this genius had infinite time to load up on BAM and BN as both struggled endlessly at $30 per share and many of us low-lings bought. Both within months skyrocketed into the 50's and he ballasts the ship into them screaming "FOLLOW ME....I'VE DISCOVERED THE HOLY GRAIL" - something only I can do for you...no one else can come close. But he wasn't satisfied with media response he got and maybe a bit envious of Brook's mention of Berk look-a-like claim, so he too goes "Buffett's old now, I'm the next one - some come with me you believers...we're now the NEW NEW THING Berkshire."

And as so many waffle around the edges the "Just a bigger version of Jonestown Waco..." is precisely what it is and all that it is. Amazing the people who have bought into this stuff but it has always been this way with Trump. Anyone who can get away with skipping floors in counting the total in a building and get knowledgeable people to quote the obvious error has a power that should be recognized. It is powerful but it is also nothing from top to bottom but a bunch of lies you couldn't get 3rd graders to accept...yet half the country will. '

John I have the personality type (the Meyers-Briggs personality assessment tells me) that kicks me into seeking people's motivations. Most follow others words literally, not intentions. Of course I am not always correct but many of my friends say this is a skill for me, that I am good at it. But regardless Trump is incredibly easy, he just repeats past models over and over and over again. Step back with time and observe, they all are simply identical.

Yes we have a little rally today, there will be many more. But you can be certain DJT will increasing need to deal with events he's created...on top of things already well in process. It will be just as increasing unpopular one day to blame Clinton, Obama, Bush, and Biden as it was popular during the campaign and up until now. Still Trump can maintain control with a much smaller fan base. That's what's so unique about this man. In our family business meetings we discuss Trump having a 5% approval and still being powerful.

Time to mimic Chief Dan George/Lone Watie in OUTLAW JOSIE WALES: "Endeavor to Persevere." When you are in business with Donald John Trump it is best that you think clearly as it is certain that many will not. Life.....so damn great if you can stand it!

What our forum isn't dealing with (yes John....off topic ;-)) is Trump spending going before Congress presently. I can't help but fall on the floor belly laughing that guys like cubs think this man is anything but utterly financially illiterate. Our budget deficit is going up trillions. No one has yet even approached understanding how bad this era is going to be for your money and lifestyle. The US is in trouble and a stock market rally and AI isn't going to change anything.

Not at all sure I'd agree with the above as I think many brokers are far and beyond better than average as to overall business models. Yet I'd be patient for better entry points that will surely come at some point. For the last multiple decades brokers have been clearly one of the lowest risk business models.

Blake in my view it will range depending on Trump's power at the time. He is in my view by far the most powerful man in my lifetime of 70 years. When I say by far I mean by leaps and bounds, evidenced by all the big boys in business submitting to his authority. It will of course begin with threats and then go from there. I have always thought insurance contracts are subject to populist attack, wording and jurisdiction overridden is not as absurd as most will suggest. I'd be particularly concerned if I was a foreign based insurer operating in the US.

One of the things not yet brought up on COBF is Trump's almost guaranteed eventual attack on the insurance industry. Given my Gallagher, Berk, Fairfax, Brown, etc. well over 80% insurance stance - mentally preparing - it would not AT ALL surprise me to wake up this this sector being 20% down in one day. As I've said ad nauseam, Trump is populist. The absolutely wild euphoria of Wall Street over Trump's election is in the first inning of nine as to realizing what this actually means for investing. Rally days or weeks...whatever...is going to be nothing but temporary denial for years to come IF this country is unable to control our new man-god.

Via my interest in psychology and such I have followed Trump since my early 20's. It fairly quickly developed into an interest as to how someone who constantly screws up can gather such a massive following. I think he has been consistent with his revenge focus for all his life. 5000 lawsuits filed is a starting point for this concept.

Nutjobs everywhere so true. But none have come close to attaining the power of Trump. I rarely see things much differently than you Parsad but I think you underestimate the harm of Trump's vast power.

Perfect.

As I posted on the shrewd'm Berk forum. Relative to our size we have what is literally a huge investment portfolio which has given us some IRS issues in the past: Within our builders supply and millwork we met repeatedly after the election and unanimously (there's 3 of us on the investment committee but 5 are owners and all 5 of us met) decided to get to 50% cash as tax efficiently as we could. This was the most significant move we have made since deciding to sell all but one of our builders supply businesses over 30 years ago. We got to 44.8% cash (short term treasuries) and that included selling about 1/3rd of our Berkshire stock. We were lucky to sell all we sold at very solid prices before the plunges started, on pretty significant up days. This decision isn't one where we expected anything like what has happened, it is a decision based on much longer term thinking. The election just put us in super-charged mode. Every employee we have is a supporter of the current administration and we love them to death. All of them assume completely too that we support the administration. We do not speak of our beliefs whatsoever in our businesses. Life....great if you can stand it!

Our family of businessmen have been discussing the above regularly since the last election. We obsessed over raising cash in the most tax efficient manner possible and we unanimously believe Trump's negative affects on capital allocations are vastly underestimated.

Trump has proven for 55 years that he is financially illiterate. He can intimidate, cheat, take a niece's inheritance,repeatedly defraud, and tell fantasy lies as to anything he's involved with. But business and finance? Glaring in your face goofball life. We wanted him and his disruption, we were sure it was those other people he would destroy. We deserve all we get.

As I mentioned on COBF earlier, there will be "jolts down" in the market and raising cash was rational. Yesterday I watched Peter Navarro, I'd thought The Donald was the dumbest creature on earth but I've found one even more stupid. We are in for some serious fun in the US of A. Enjoy the ride. Tariffs are just a small beginning, there's so much more disruption coming. And all of us wanted disruption didn't we? Life is great...if you can stand it.

It seems you are correct on this Spek. The issue may be my other prediction however, that the budget deficit is going up in a wild way which may add to the limits of defense spending.

As a 50 year 2 month and 21 (or 22-23...to lazy to do the calculation) day owner of Berkshire - gfp is correct with the behavior/action of Berkshire the stock in bear markets.

OK, you confused me. Enough of this subject, I'm off this thread for a while. I'll revisit later as things progress.

Agree. Over on the Shrewd'm forum Jim did his usual layout of what to expect as to return for Berk stock over the next five years is historical valuation(s) maintain and growth in business also continues as in the past. Time to drastically cut stock return expectations.

Ya ain't seen Trump in control until now. Now's when the fun starts.