james22

Jaysis, could we leave the politics out of this for the moment? There'll be time for that later (and in another thread). These are difficult times and there are no easy answers. Is it really impossible to assume Trump and those around him are doing the best they can? You can explain to me later how President Biden or Sanders would have been more successful.

How lame will the next .25% cut seem?

Scientists around the world have worked overtime to get a handle on Covid-19, yet one great unknown remains. We still don’t know for sure whether this is only a medical crisis, or also a medical system crisis. The distinction matters for the novel coronavirus for the same reason it matters for other “natural disasters” that aren’t entirely natural. It is now widely understood that famines arise from local political failures in the trade and distribution of abundant global food supplies, not from local crop failures. Floods devastate communities not because the local rivers are unusually watery but because poor zoning and subsidized flood insurance encourage people to build homes in flood plains. This is the context for a conspicuous feature of Covid-19: It is not untreatable, but many health systems are struggling to deliver effective treatment. Nowhere is this more so right now than in Italy, where nightmarish reports are emerging from hospitals in the hardest-hit areas. Doctors in Italy know what to do to treat severe cases, such as using ventilators in intensive-care units. But hospitals lack the beds and equipment for the influx of patients and Italy doesn’t have enough doctors even to make the attempt. Ill patients languish in hospital corridors for want of beds, recovering patients are rushed out the door as quickly as possible, and exhausted (and sometimes sick) doctors and nurses can’t even muster the energy to throw up their hands in despair. Is this more a result of the severity of Covid-19, or of long-term failures to invest in the Italian health-care system? One starts to suspect the latter. Italy lags other large European countries in provision of acute-care hospital beds, furnishing 2.62 of them per 1,000 residents as of 2016, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In Germany it’s 6.06 and in France and the Netherlands it’s 3.15 and 3 respectively. That year, Italy devoted around $913 per capita to inpatient acute and rehabilitative care, compared with $1,338 in France, $1,506 in Germany, and $1,732 in the U.S. U.K. policy makers understand what such analyses portend—because underinvestment in Britain’s creaking health-care system is even worse. The U.K. spent the princely sum of $901.70 per capita on acute care in 2016, according to the OECD. British data don’t distinguish acute-care beds, but a comparison of available beds overall isn’t any more favorable to the U.K. (or to Italy). In 2017, when Germany provided 8 beds per 1,000 residents and France offered 5.98, Italy managed 3.18 and the U.K. only 2.54. https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-coronavirus-fate-is-already-sealed-11584025664

Perhaps Berkshire can now buy Microsoft.

Is SV small cap value? Sorry, yes. Small Value (SV) and Emerging Markets (EM).

The 10-Year Bull Market Just Died Of Coronavirus (John Hussman & Chris Martenson) Given the extraordinary and historic meltdown underway in the markets, we've just recorded interviews with two of the most prominent financial experts we know to make sense of what's happening, and what's most likely to come next. John Hussman is famous for his accurate predictions of both the 2001 and 2008 stock market crises, on which he made tremendous returns for investors. John makes very few public appearances -- this is his first media interview in years. Steen Jakobsen is the Chief Investment officer of Saxo Bank. His macro market and political outlook are in high demand, making him a regular (though often contrarian) on major media such as CNBC and Bloomberg News. Both have been warning of the structural excesses and instabilities in both the global economy and financial markets that set the stage for the current breakdown we're witnessing. That said, they remain extremely concerned that the carnage that has started is far from over. Here is video #1, of Chris in conversation with John Hussman, offering arguably the best and freshest insight on what's driving this violent market sell-off and what concerned investors should be paying most attention to at this point.

Now 6% SV, 6% EM, 12% Stable Value.

And be thought a fool by everyone with a strong opinion? Better to remain silent. ;) Mr. Marks, in your new memo to Oaktree clients, you discuss the coronavirus outbreak and the uncertainties surrounding the impact on the global economy. What’s your advice for investors in this volatile market environment? The great American author Mark Twain once said: "It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for certain that just ain’t so." In our business as investors, there is no room to be certain about anything, and especially not today. Nobody knows what’s going to happen with the new coronavirus or what the implications are. But if you’re sure you know the answers and you bet heavily on it and it’s wrong, then you lose a lot. What does this mean for investment decisions? In our industry, a sentence that starts with "I may be wrong, but ...," or "I don’t know, but..." is unlikely to get you into trouble. You have to know what you know, and you have to know what you don’t know. If you think you know and you really do know, then your investment decisions are going to be very profitable. But if you think you know and you really don’t know, then it’s very dangerous. You have to know the difference, but too many people have too high an opinion of their opinion. Then again, is there really nothing we can say about the economic impact of the new coronavirus at this stage? No, too many things are currently unknown and unknowable. So clearly, there can be no such thing as a reliable statement regarding the implications of the virus. We don’t know how long this outbreak will last. We don’t know how many people will be affected. We don’t know how many will die. So how can we possibly estimate the impact on the economy? Yet, many brokerage firms come out and say GDP growth for the US economy will be 1.5%, for instance. There are as many forecasts as there are forecasters. They tell you what’s going to happen in the second, third and fourth quarter. But how the hell do they know? They may feel an obligation to make an estimate, and it may be their best guess. But there’s a big difference between "this is my best guess" and "this is correct." So how are you personally dealing with uncertain times like today? I don’t feel I have to make an estimate. https://themarket.ch/english/howard-marks-of-oaktree-capital-nobody-knows-ld.1674

24% in my 401k beginning the week: 3% SV, 3% EM, 18% Stable Value. Shifted 3% Monday from Stable Value into SV and EM when they were both down 25% from their 2018 highs. (Now 4.5% SV, 4.5% EM, 15% Stable Value.) I'll continue to shift 3% with every additional 5% drop until down 50% (or until I believe we've hit bottom). I hope to end up 12% SV, 12% EM coming out of this. We'll see how it goes. I'd like to see a healthy correction, but I'm afraid Trump/the Fed will again inflate assets before I have a chance to fully invest.

::)

And be thought a fool by everyone with a strong opinion? Better to remain silent. ;)

How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan

FWIW: Do voters effectively hold elected officials accountable for policy decisions? Using data on natural disasters, government spending, and election returns, we show that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering disaster relief spending, but not for investing in disaster preparedness spending. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/sunday-assorted-links-254.html And Tyler's take: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/america-s-coronavirus-response-has-started-slow-but-will-improve?utm_content=view&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view Comments: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/america-is-historically-slow-to-mobilize-but-eventually-quite-effective.html#comments

Yep.

Nibbled at Small Value (VSIAX) and Emerging Markets (VEMAX).

Maximum pessimism?

To be clear, I whine only about the particular criticism of Trump/Pence. I don't believe governments are capable of responding much better, no matter the leadership. I believe it is poor planning to rely on governments, no matter how enlightened, to protect us. Medical knowledge is important, but not as important as knowledge of the possible consequences of a panic, how and what to communicate, etc. It's exactly why our system empowers the Executive Branch/Pence to make those decisions.

If you don't have work that requires emotional distancing as a defense mechanism, you might be grateful for that (and pray you never understand gallows humor). If you haven't had leadership role responsibilities and experience making difficult decisions under conditions of uncertainty, you might show a little sympathy. (Beating the market is easier than managing the coronavirus response, yet how difficult is it to explain why you didn't last year?) Or maybe just say "thank you" and go on your way?

Racist.

One take on the response: “I’ve been handling these emerging contagions for about 20 years now, and I have to tell you, I’ve never seen one handled better,” Dr. Marc Siegel said regarding the actions of President Donald Trump since the coronavirus first emerged as a concern in January. ... “They’ve been doing exactly what they’re supposed to be doing,” he said, listing actions Trump has called for such as “restricting travel, isolating patients who are sick and, trying to cut down on contact. It’s a very hard thing to do when people are pouring in from all over the world.” More importantly, numbers: “One, at the beginning of an emerging contagion, it always appears more deadly than it actually is. The 1918 flu is an exception, but normally as time goes on, it’s less deadly, and part of that is because you see more immunity appearing, and you also find a lot of milder cases — or even cases where people don’t get sick at all. You find that as you start to test more people,” he said. He also noted that people who were infected but never got sick do not show up in statistics, making the virus seem more deadly than it is. https://www.westernjournal.com/medical-professor-praises-trump-admin-coronavirus-response-never-seen-one-handled-better/

You could make a better argument that the CDC should spend less time advocating against guns, etc. and more time protecting us from infectious diseases. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/05/ebola-cdc-jobs-tasks-multitasking-thomas-duncan-column/16766801/ If you think bringing up how ebola was handled will make this cdc look good, then just lol. If you think that was the point, LOL.

You could make a better argument that the CDC should spend less time advocating against guns, etc. and more time protecting us from infectious diseases. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/10/05/ebola-cdc-jobs-tasks-multitasking-thomas-duncan-column/16766801/

A significant advantage, one would think. But it seems to fall with the market as the hedge fund owners need cash.

Lucky I limped in (only because I was without the cash to take a larger position): VGELX -7% since then, -17% since the beginning of this thread. A little bothered that Howard Marks believes energy isn't a bargain (unlike healthcare, he believes it has an uncertain future), but still looking to take a larger position.

Exactly.