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james22

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Everything posted by james22

  1. For those who don't already hold Bitcoin, will the approval of an EFT elevate it to an "asset class" in your mind? Will you make it a position? If so, in what size? Less than or greater than 5%?
  2. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Can't be surprised now if it happens again.
  3. Gregmal?
  4. It says something about comparative (primarily) cultural advantages. It says something about US culture that such an invasion seems inconceivable, no?
  5. Why were the British able to colonize India? And not the other way around?
  6. You say that it is your custom to burn widows. Very well. We also have a custom: when men burn a woman alive, we tie a rope around their necks and we hang them. Build your funeral pyre; beside it, my carpenters will build a gallows. You may follow your custom. And then we will follow ours. Napier
  7. That's a better example of "necessity being the mother of invention," I think.
  8. No, it's a reversal, replacing good and evil with oppressed and oppressor, character with color, ideas with identity, etc.
  9. 1. You can never prove how good an investor you are. 2. A good investor would diversify. I'd add a Small Value and/or Info Tech index tilt.
  10. Nice timing. Good luck!
  11. Correct. I hope you didn't recognize it because it's a holding of yours. I've been holding in a Trust for four years...
  12. What would happen to valuations if SS reserves were invested in the market? ... some have raised a fair question as to whether investing all of Social Security’s reserves in U.S. bonds is the best investment strategy. The interest rate paid on the bonds is determined by a formula adopted by Congress in 1960. It uses a rolling average of the rate on all U.S. bonds with maturities longer than four years. My rough calculation indicates this has resulted in about a 5.2% average yield since 1960. Currently, the rate is much lower because interest rates have been so low for the last decade, notwithstanding the increase in rates over the last year. According to Social Security Administration data, the average return for 2022 was 2.35%. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has returned 10.15% since 1960. If the reserves had been invested in the S&P 500 during that time, the reserve balance today would be something around $30 trillion and we would not be facing any shortfall for decades. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/congress-has-not-looted-social-security
  13. Just sold some BRK for 2024 expenses. Nice feeling to be able to do so near the top.
  14. Once you start thinking about growth, it's hard to think about anything else. https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/the-china-degrowth-syndrome
  15. 40% BRK 20% IT (VITAX) 20% SV (VSIAX) 10% Energy/Utilities (VGELX) 10% ITT (VFIUX)
  16. Exactly why it's preferable to use the common definition of cash rather than one's own.
  17. No, it's not. One has a stable value, one does not. You conflate need with a cope. I agree with you that cash held to dampen volatility is only a drag: And cash held for long periods of time for some opportunity to present itself ("dry powder") actually has a greater opportunity cost. But if you do need it (savings for a fixed expense in a short period of time), you should fear volatility and hold your $1 savings in something you'll know you can exchange for $1. That's why it's important to use the more narrow definition of cash. Cash is an asset if you need it, a liability if you don't.
  18. Sure, cash is more valuable when opportunity presents itself. But I know I can exchange $1 cash for $1 then. What can I exchange $1 BTC/FFH/BRK for? Especially when opportunity presents itself is also more likely when what had been $1 of BTC/FFH/BRK might then only be exchanged for something significantly less. BTC/FFH/BRK is wet powder.
  19. BTC has had a drawdown of 93% (2011), FFH 88% (2003), and BRK 54% (2009). If they are cash, what isn't?
  20. Why do you consider BTC as cash?
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