james22

~10% All returns this year should be considered within context. I spent a week in the hospital (Corona) and another two quarantined away from my computer in early April - made it impossible to invest my dry powder then. That's my excuse, anyway. Sorry for your loss, John. And congrats, writser.

Nice article, thanks. Creating optionality and buying lottery tickets are not way stations on the road to pursuing your dreamy outcomes. They are dangerous diversions that will change you. Po Bronson in What Should I Do With My Life talks about being changed: https://books.google.com/books?id=eb6HEs6Gm1MC&pg=PT220&lpg=PT220&dq=%22Why+not+get+rich,+then+do+your+dream?+When+I+started+this+book,+I+assumed+I%27d+find+numerous+examples+of+that+path.%22&source=bl&ots=RTr1CJnCOI&sig=ACfU3U0JUieCJhLhlBeJJRjagb24K9KKcw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi_97iO_-ztAhUHi6wKHYKuDIwQ6AEwAXoECAEQAg#v=onepage&q=%22Why%20not%20get%20rich%2C%20then%20do%20your%20dream%3F%20When%20I%20started%20this%20book%2C%20I%20assumed%20I'd%20find%20numerous%20examples%20of%20that%20path.%22&f=false

I do still like to imagine Berkshire will play some role here. Buffett is probably the only one who could be portrayed as saving the mortgage system rather than benefiting himself.

60% Jockeys (in Buffett/Munger, Flatt/Marks, and Gayner I trust) 20% Indices (in Fama/French and Modern Portfolio Theory I trust) 10% Speculation (in the Rule of Law I trust) 10% Dry Powder (in volatility/opportunity I trust)

Just made MKL a 5% position.

Whoops. Thought this was a Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac thread.

BRK and BAM. Had decided over the weekend to buy on Monday, but was scared off by the jump. Still think they undervalued though, so went ahead today.

By taking them? Why would the Dems reverse themselves and set the twins free?

Delusional.

That's my thinking (BAM too). Added today.

Shifted some of my Emerging Markets fund (VEMAX) to US Small Value (VSIAX).

As an expat working from home (in-Kingdom) during this, I wonder if my employer might come to believe I can work as well from home in my home country and save themselves the expat (in-Kingdom hardship) premium they pay.

In order to understand the future of commercial real estate we must draw a distinction between companies’ shrinking demand for office space per employee and the market’s demand for office space. Companies take advantage of technological improvements to cut costs and reduce the amount of office space each worker occupies. As they cut costs, they become more productive; that is, the amount of value each worker adds to the enterprise goes up. More productive firms can increase profits while expanding their market share by lowering the price they charge customers. These lower overall prices expand the market and existing businesses add employees. Because there are profits to be had, new businesses start up and office space remains strongly in demand even though the space per worker at individual firms goes down. https://economics21.org/coronavirus-upends-nyc-commercial-real-estate

Works for me.

"I suggest extreme skepticism regarding any claims made by Sorrento (NASDAQ:SRNE)," one former employee tells Hindenburg Research. "I would never in my life have put out a press release where I say we have a cure," says a former executive. Hindenburg claims the company was nearly out of cash and facing solvency concerns ahead of its COVID-19 cure announcement. Hindenburg: "We believe that Sorrento’s actions are manipulative at the worst possible time and simply amount to an attempt to shamelessly profiteer off the pandemic." https://seekingalpha.com/news/3576349-sorrento-down-another-15-hindenburg-shorts

"Given the very effective data that we've seen, how potent this antibody is, we are very confident this could actually work out," said. Dr. Mark Brunswick from Sorrento Therapeutics. They haven't tested it on humans yet, but they plan to use this antibody with a combination of a few others to provide a cocktail that could work on people if the virus mutates. "So, if the virus mutates, you have different angles with different antibodies attached to it, so that way one of the mutations, one of the antibody, the other two still works," said Dr. Henry Ji from Sorrento. Sorrento plans to start ramping up production, but some scientists caution only 10% of drugs that enter clinical trials get approved by the FDA. ... Sorrento hopes to have an application to submit to the FDA by the end of the year for approval. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/antibody-effective-at-blocking-coronavirus-from-human-cells-sorrento-therapeutics/2326358/

I see no discussion of this? Later Friday, Sorrento Therapeutics will announce their discovery of the STI-1499 antibody, which the San Diego company said can provide "100% inhibition" of COVID-19, adding that a treatment could be available months before a vaccine hits the market. "We want to emphasize there is a cure. There is a solution that works 100 percent," Dr. Henry Ji, founder and CEO of Sorrento Therapeutics, told Fox News. "If we have the neutralizing antibody in your body, you don't need the social distancing. You can open up a society without fear." ... "When the antibody prevents a virus from entering a human cell, the virus cannot survive," Dr. Ji said. "If they cannot get into the cell, they cannot replicate. So it means that if we prevent the virus from getting the cell, the virus eventually dies out. The body clears out that virus." "This puts its arms around the virus. It wraps around the virus and moves them out of the body." Dr. Ji pointed out that the antibody can be used as preventative therapy since there are no side effects, and that it can be more effective than any vaccine that may be developed. "This is the best solution," he said. "The point of making a vaccine is to generalize a neutralizing antibody. So, if you already have one, you don't need to the body to generate one from a vaccine. You've already provided it. You're cutting out the middleman." https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough.amp

A little BRK.

Agreed. I think though it more of an opportunistic buy on an asset class they know well. Small bet though. The whole bet is at $1 billion on the four o&g companies. In contrast, they gave about $45 billion to Masa Son's vision fund through equity and pref equity. On a different note, interestingly Norway sovereign fund, in contrast to 2018 where it was buying the dip, as been off loading its equity to fulfill its obligation with its government. I agree it was smart. It'll always be a temptation to trade the asset class they know (and can manipulate). Maybe nothing wrong with that, but wonder if they've only recently come to the realization?

For almost two decades, Yale students have competed for admission each year to the “Studies in Grand Strategy” seminar taught by John Lewis Gaddis, Paul Kennedy, and Charles Hill. Its purpose has been to prepare future leaders for responsibilities they will face, through lessons drawn from history and the classics. Now Gaddis has distilled that teaching into a succinct, sharp and potentially transformational book, surveying statecraft from the ancient Greeks to Franklin D. Roosevelt and beyond. An unforgettable guide to the art of leadership, On Grand Strategy is, in every way, its own master class. https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Strategy-John-Lewis-Gaddis/dp/1594203512 https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-grand-strategy-review-the-war-against-decline-and-fall-1523915579 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/20/books/review/john-lewis-gaddis-on-grand-strategy.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-grand-strategy-review-the-war-against-decline-and-fall-1523915579 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183007-are-you-fox-hedgehog-in-your-investing https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2013/08/07/charles-ellis-lessons-on-grand-strategy/

So much for diversifying their oil industry risk.

Well, some of those consumers will keep their Energy sector and related jobs of course. And did this not register at all?

Do you know how I know you don't live in Texas? Fair enough. Everyone outside of Texas hates oil companies. But even there the number has to be close to 50%. Maybe even higher in Austin... But I think most Americans like energy independence and recognize the national security aspect. Especially post-coronavirus. I believe a tariff would be pretty well received.

Do you know how I know you don't live in Texas?

Seeking Alpha showed/shows BAM as -30%. I got a little excited for a second.