james22

https://apnews.com/article/army-air-force-recruiting-shortfall-immigrants-citizenship-2cd690352210606945010d1800c5bdbe

VDE 15.6% YTD I'll take it.

There is a great deal of ruin in a nation, sure, but a "great stagnation" seems possible.

Small Value, International

The first ~8min are on-topic: We're on the confluence of two huge forces that are butting up against each other. The free market which is increasingly deflationary opposing another one that is a controlled market that is increasingly inflationary to protect the existing system from failing.

Ha, no I agree with it all (and ValueArb, Eldad, vinod1, and rohitc99's posts as well).

Agree.

Exactly. When your strength is finding patterns, you find them everywhere.

Michael Saylor

Thanks. Ordered.

I've no problem swinging at a fat pitch. I went from 0 to 1100 MSTR shares since the ETF's approval. It's now ~33% of my portfolio (I'm up $1M+). How did you size your Bitcoin position in 2012? You must be up many millions, yeah? Have you held since then? Added? What percent of your portfolio is Bitcoin now?

I'm only arguing that in 2012, there was no more reason to believe in Bitcoin than any other long-shot stock. Since the ETF approval (and Blackrock, Fidelity) recognized it as an asset class, there is.

Over the past 15 years Hussman, 48, has thrown himself into understanding the disorder — ever since his son, J.P., was diagnosed with it as a child. Because the vast majority of cases show a family link (a relative on J.P.’s mother’s side is autistic), Hussman has focused on its genetic causes. Almost completely self-taught, he’s spent nights and family vacations poring over obscure scientific textbooks (he says he’s Amazon.com’s best customer) and research abstracts. He not only funded a genomics center at the University of Miami, but has spent years collaborating with scientists there. Finally, this year the science journal Molecular Autism published his findings in a paper that top researchers are calling a breakthrough. The dense, 16-page article features Ph.D.-level mathematics and abstruse genetic analyses. (We’ll spare you the details, but you can check it out here.) “I found it really interesting,” says Dan Geschwind, a leading autism researcher at UCLA’s School of Medicine. Joseph Buxbaum, another top researcher at Mount Sinai School of Medicine, says, “People are beginning to think about other areas where the mathematics and statistics have really evolved, and then bringing them back to genetics. This is a really neat example.” Buxbaum himself is using methods borrowed from astrophysics to research autism. Hussman’s advance, researchers say, consists of the patterns he has found across hundreds of autism cases. Each person is the result of millions of genetic coin flips that occur across the human genome. Hussman’s algorithm can detect unusual clusters of flips that may be linked to autism. There’s a second benefit too. If you look at each coin flip separately to find the ones causing autism, you miss something because the flips are interconnected by genetic material — one flip can influence another. Until now, autism researchers haven’t been able to fully incorporate that influence into their research. Hussman created a way to do that, using complex statistics he learned from studying markets. “In finance, when you see the same signal across two different markets or countries, you take that as a stronger signal of information than if you only saw that signal in one market,” he says. “It’s similar in genetics.” https://archive.ph/R5VYY https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110131.htm

Do you regret missing NVDA, wachtwoord? MNST? VINC?

It's hard work undermining Western civilization.

Bitcoin brings with it excitement, speculation, rumor, and downright confusion. To be sure, Bitcoin is complicated. There's been FUD since the beginning. (And worse: crypto discussion is actually prohibited on the Bogleheads forum, for example.) And one could have found the article and still walked away thinking it too speculative: Remember that Bitcoin should still be considered an experiment. As resilient as the system has proven to be, it is still new. The value of a Bitcoin could drop to zero tomorrow. Bitcoin is a highly volatile commodity with an extremely uncertain future. A prudent person should assume Bitcoin will fail, if for no other reason than that most new things fail.

Step 1) Create a free account at a trustworthy exchange like MtGox.com

You'd have to study quite a bit before coming across your article. The noise-to-signal ratio is high.

The thing is, you have to have studied crypto a bit to know the difference. And you've no reason to study if you've (not unreasonably) applied the authority bias heuristic. You can fault those for looking to Buffett/Munger for their take on a new technology, something they admit they struggle with, though you wouldn't think they take so adamant a position on Bitcoin if they weren't sure of themselves.

He's a perfect example of Taleb's Dr. John.

To be fair, most don't bother to study it because they've been told it's a Ponzi by people who should know better. When you've Buffet/Munger on one side of the argument and Sam Bankman-Fried the other, you can believe you know all you need to.