DTEJD1997

Yeah, Windows is like my Math for Liberal Arts instructor. She does a lousy job of explaining simple concepts. YouTube / Apple to the rescue. I have multiple problems with a Windows machine interacting with the interwebs... A). Windows 10 is updating itself. I mean CONSTANTLY. I understand the need for updates...but almost every damn time the machine is turned on? Why can't decent code be written from the origination? B). I don't want to have to be constantly updating/adjusting security programs/updates and so forth...Various flavors of OS X are orders of magnitude more secure than Windows when you get on the interweb. C). Windows 10 is a VAST improvement over previous flavors of Windows but it is still not as easy OR as good a user interface than OS X. Windows has improved a great deal from where it was, but it is still lacking...at least in my experience.

hey all: I stopped using MS Office personally and in my business at least 10 years ago. I switched over to Open Office. I still use "Windows" every day, but not as a mission critical application. All important work is done on Mac OS. I simply do not understand/see how people can get on the interwebs using Windows stuff.

Increase taxes? There is a HUGE problem with the money we already collect. Here in Michigan, untold BILLIONS are collected for "edukation". For example, property taxes (which are high, sometimes HIGHEST in the nation), State Lotto sales, Gasoline tax, and others ALL go to fund "edukation". As such, we have some of the WORST skools in the country. Meanwhile, the infrastructure in MI is literally falling apart. We have absolutely some of the WORST roads in the country. We have had cutbacks in municipal services also. For example, when I was a young man, the sidewalks & streets were plowed when there was maybe 1+ inches of snow. Today, only the main arteries are plowed/salted. Neighborhood side streets are NOT plowed at all. There are other very serious problems in MI. I would suggest that the solution would start with BETTER SPENDING of what is already collected in taxes. Once that is accomplished, then we talk about raising taxes if it is truly needed.

Hey all: if you like crime thrillers & action movies, I've got two recommendations: A). "HEAT", absolutely the best bank heist movie ever made, bar none. Also, probably the best gun battle ever filmed. A+ list actors, just incredibly well done all the way around. B). "The Usual Suspects", great acting, engaging story line. An incredible plot twist at the end. Very well done!

There are many interviews with Avi Loeb...some of the best ones are to be found here: I think that "asteroid" may indeed be alien technology...but that is a VERY speculative conclusion. I think we would need to get a MUCH better picture/image of it OR that it is sending off radio waves, OR that it suddenly changes course/acceleration. It apparently has accelerated already...but that may simply be ice or vapor "gassing off" like in a comet. Very unusual object indeed and worthy of further investigation!

I think this is a MAJOR threat to the market in the years going forward. Sure, tax rates are low right NOW, but what happens in 2-3 years or so? What happens if a Democrat gets elected to the Presidency? and/or they pick up more seats in the House and Senate? As a party, they've said they want to raise taxes across the board. Some Democrats have also voiced concern that the employment rate is too high. That the economy as a whole is "overheated" and needs to be brought down or cooled off. I think that is VERY dangerous thinking. Here in Michigan, the economy is good, maybe even very good, but not great. Of course, the economy here has been depressed for a LONG time. It would be terrible if the economy here had 8 bad years, 2 good years, and then went back down again. I am also surprised that people are NOT upset that tax rates were not lowered BEFORE now. Whatever happens, the future is certainly going to be interesting!

Hey all: I've started thinking about "mental blocks", my own, and those of others. For example, I've been in several "heated" discussions with family members regarding the value of real estate. They absolutely believes that real estate in the Detroit area generally goes down in value as time progresses. They admit that there are ups & downs...but it is like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. They have been right from THEIR EXPERIENCE (for the most part). They simply will NOT change their view, no matter the evidence or discussion presented to them. Since about 2009, prices have been going up, sometimes as much as 10X. Is it all going to collapse again? Maybe? I most certainly think that prices will go down at some point, but not by 50%+ (in most cases). I also think that if you buy it right, you can do OK. I will admit that I used to think this way, but I've done a lot of looking, A ton of research, and even some buying and think you can make $ in real estate if you do it right. I am skeptical, and very cautious, but will buy & work with real estate. Contrast that to my family members, they won't own anything OTHER than their houses. They have a mental block regarding real estate. I know that they are not the only ones...So these mental blocks can lead to an inefficient market. On a slightly different tack, I've bumped into some people that simply WILL NOT invest in the auto industry. No way, no how. Some of these guys are ESPECIALLY that way on FCAU. Chrysler could pay a 50% dividend, trade for a 1 P/E, trade at 25% of book value, WITH NO DEBT, and it would be too risky for them. I suspect that those that hold this view either lost money in the past, OR were shocked by FCAU's big blow ups in the past. They are so jaded by what happened in the past, they won't deal with it in the present or future. So certain areas of the market may be somewhat inefficient (warped?) due to mental blocks of investors. I suspect that is the case of the auto industry. Anybody else have examples of mental blocks?

You might be right on GM & F, but FCAU has had consistent free cash flow over the past 5 years. For some of those years, FCAU free cash flow has been VERY significant in relation to it's market cap. When you look at capital expenditures...a good chunk of that is simply to replace drill bits, lathes, tool & die, and other things that wear out quickly...but I know that FCAU has some more modern factories (as compared to GM & F). So perhaps FCAU's physical plant is in somewhat better condition. If sales fall off, FCAU's capital spending should go down somewhat also. So I would posit that FCAU has the best capital allocation of all the major manufacturers AND is in the best position (sales & profit) going forward for the near term. These assertions have been reinforced after yesterday's (1.3.19) sale's figures for the auto industry. FCAU was up 8%, and is the best of the major manufacturers.

I also have a large position in FCAU, but I think you're way underestimating autonomous fleets. So what if some drivers are earning less than minimum wage, that's still a lot more expensive than nothing... minimum wage in NYC is $13.5/hr, assume an autonomous car drives a 12 hour shift 365 days/year and it saves you $59,130/year in labor. Do you really think the tech in autonomous cars will cost that much money? Uber's cost per mile is 70-90% labor. You're also not factoring in the possibility of cars made specifically for the robo-taxi purpose. Why do they need to have 5 seats when most of them cary 1-2 people? Smaller, 2 person vehicles could cut even the up-front cost of the vehicle. And insurance will be cheaper for self-driving cars. And fleet operators will probably have lower maintenance costs per mile. An excellent response! Thank you! You are assuming the rest of the country is like NYC? Autonomous vehicles very well may work in NYC...but probably not in the wastelands of the middle of the country. Vehicle demand here is largely during the commutes, early evening (running of errands), drinking & gambling time, and weekends. I don't think a fleet of autonomous vehicles would be engaged 12 hour days...not here in/around Detroit at least. I assume that insurance would be significantly HIGHER, at least for the first few years. Can you imagine what the damages would be for somebody injured/killed by a self driving vehicle? Lawyers would be DROOLING to get those cases. A 2 person vehicle might indeed cut the cost down, I admit that I did not even consider that! I don't think that will cut the costs tremendously though. I imagine the single biggest cost to a self driving vehicle will be the software, followed by vision/computing/navigation, followed by engine & such. As it currently stands, I don't think UBER buys/owns very many vehicles at all. It is my understanding that 99%+ are provided by the drivers. It is the human driver that is providing the vehicle/capital so that UBER can operate. If some desperate attorney is willing to drive UBER with his own vehicle for $7-$8 hour, how much money can UBER possibly make by cutting him & his vehicle out of the loop with an autonomous driving vehicle? Perhaps in NYC & SF & LA this might work, but I don't see how this works in the vast hinterlands...especially with most demand during rush/hours and early evening. OR perhaps it might work with a very small percentage of vehicles being owned by UBER that can be utilized 12+ hours a day. Even if an Uber can cut a driver out of the loop and NOT let them get $14 in pay, UBER is still going to have expenses of capital wear & tear, gas, and insurance, so they won't be able to keep anywhere near that $14. Then you've got acceptance of people willing to ride in autonomous vehicles. I might do that at an amusement park OR in a controlled environment. NO WAY IN HELL I'm doing that in/around Detroit. Road conditions are too bad, drivers are crazy, weather changes/it is a dangerous/difficult environment. Autonomous vehicles are going to have to be very good indeed to beat a good human driver! I've asked some other people I know and associate with...they are also skeptical. All that aside, FCAU is trading at such a silly valuation that it won't matter in a few years, IF FCAU can keep going like they are. I see incredibly limited applications/usefulness of AI. In my interactions with it, I find it to be severely lacking... We will see, but my money is riding on FCAU and some others!

The auto industry is interesting indeed! I suspect that there is something terrible wrong here....and I suspect that the market & analysts have got things wrong here. WHY? They are fixated on TSLA & self driving autos. The fixation is misplaced I suspect. Traditionally, auto manufacturers have been prone to poor capital allocation, no doubt. This makes them trade at a discount. That is slowly starting to change. I would posit that FCAU is the best at this point in terms of capital allocation. Analysts are fixated on TSLA as they think that: A). TSLA will take MASSIVE market share in the upcoming years. I have no doubt that TSLA has a good CHANCE to take market share...but they are going from .01% market share to 1-2% market share. (this may also be optimistic, as there is a non 1% chance that TSLA blows up) In my area, there are TSLA's and I see more of them as time progresses. HOWEVER, the amount I usually see is 1-2 per day, and I do a lot of driving. I see a LOT more PORSCHE vehicles than I do TSLA, and this is order of magnitude more. B). Analysts are worried that the conversion from ICE to battery is more than the auto industry can handle/afford. Once again, I think this is WAY overblown. In my circle of friends/associates, only 1 person has been seriously interested in purchasing an electric vehicle. Most people laugh/chuckle when queried about this. I see almost no change in the next 5 years. Why should there be? Gas is well under $2/gallon in my area. In 15-20 years, that MAY be different. So I think a lot of the analysts live in a bubble. They are in NYC, LA and they think that what they see/do/aspire to is what the rest of country wants. That is not the case. As for self driving vehicles, there may not be a market there (limited market)? Many studies have pointed out that UBER drivers make LESS than minimum wage when you account for expenses & taxes. Why have an expensive robot driving when you can have a human do it cheaply (and provide a TON of the capital to boot!)? So with that bubble, you get FCAU with a net cash position, that is about to get a LOT better, single MID-digit P/E, nice dividend, and on & on. You still have to be very careful & picky, as some companies still have too much debt & pension obligations...but I think there is crazy opportunity here.

Hey all: I am surprised that nobody has suggested Fiat/Chrysler (FCAU). FCAU is about to have a net cash position...potentially substantial net cash if they sell their robotics division. They are also going to pay a special dividend early in the new year, which should be a bit over 10% of current price. After that, regular quarterly dividends will commence. FCAU has a lot of "levers" to push/pull to improve operations/profitability. Two big things jump to mind... A). I am going to suggest that with another decent quarterly earnings, sale of Marelli & robotics division, that FCAU will achieve an investment grade rating on their debt. This alone will save them a bit of $$$$$$$, but even more import it will enable them to: B). Start a captive in house financing division If FCAU can enable A&B, that could easily be worth $2-$4 a share. FCAU also has a strong possibility to improve operations/quality/styling/marketing at Maserati. Add in some general corporate efficiency/cost cutting/modest sales improvement, and you've got a company making EVEN more $$$$ than today. I would argue that FCAU is the best managed of the large auto manufacturers today.

A few of these are on my list...I've also got some anecdotal information on a couple of others... WDC, very "cheap". In the consumer SSD space, SAMSUNG has been taking market share from everybody. SAMSUNG builds a great product and sells it at a good price. At my wholesaler, SAMSUNG drives outsell WDC ssd's by at least a 10x1 margin. WDC drives are OK, but not quite as good as SAMSUNG. To take market share, WDC would have to be substantially cheaper...not sure how profitable they would be if they were 10%+ cheaper than SAMSUNG? FLEX: At this point in time, I think contract manufacturing is just a bad industry to be in. The easy money was made 10-15 years ago. Manufacturing is probably going to be leaving China in the future and going back to USA OR to other SE Asian countries (Vietnam, Malaysia)? I've been looking at BBBY. I can remember when that was a Wall St. darling. Now they are in the dog house. Management is trying, but they always seem to be reactionary and can't get ahead of things. If they can slim down the company (exit some leases, close bottom 5 to 10% of stores?), stabilize sales & margins, then this could be a multi-bagger easily. Got to get stabilized first though, not sure if they can do it?

Hey all: I think we've seen peak bitcoin & peak crypto-currency. How do I know beside the huge sell off? Well, in the summer time, I started to see some unusual pop-up ads on various sites on the inter-webs. These ads were promoting some type of crypto-currency. Not sure what it was, I was not going to waste my time. I presume it was a serious ad, who would be paying money for it's placement otherwise? Attached is a screenshot showing the pop-up add. This is what I saw, and I am not making it up. Did anybody else see these?

hey all: Anybody else out there having recent problems with the IRS? I have a relatively minor issue that should NOT even be an issue... I have many different financial accounts. The IRS has been "looking" at them and has flagged one. The one is flagged because I do not appear to be the authorized owner of the account. I've had that account for MANY years. Nobody else has access to it. Every year, my statements from the financial institution that runs it are SENT to the IRS as part of my tax return. EVERYTHING IS REPORTED. So I called around. Turns out the IRS has a new computer system. The new computer system is "confused" by ANY minor typographical error. For example, an extra space, a period in a weird spot, a middle initial instead of the full name...and so on. I don't know for sure that this is an AI system...but I wonder.

Great! they invented a robot that probably costs like 5 million dollars to do the work that some guy that gets paid 17 bucks an hour can do 5 times faster and better - cause I don't see that thing shimming the drywall. That's real progress! I agree that this doesn't look commercially viable (at least not yet). Same goes with stuff like this: It is quite striking how much better & cheaper humans still are vs robots at performing so many seemingly simple tasks. I think Chipotle at one point tried to develop an automatic tomato dicer for its kitchens and gave up pretty quickly. Maybe it is precisely because people can hire cheap labor to do these things that developments in this space have been a bit slow... Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how things evolve (or not) from here. I had a former colleague who loved telling people about how his parents used to joke(?) about dishwashers in the 1950s — that they were “pointless” inventions because anyone who could afford one already had servants who would do the dishes “for free.” Hey all: I have read some science fiction books that are very interesting in regards to robotics...They claim that in the future, robots do the very high level, high value work, and humans still do a lot of other stuff. Robots are just too expensive. Why spend $100k on one robot when you can hire a capable, motivated worker for $2/hour in the 3rd world? Further, if business changes, you can simply let go of the worker, a robot? You bought it!

Hey all: I had an unfortunate experience lately with a family member getting wrapped up with an MLM. The last time I was approached by somebody pushing an MLM was maybe 25 years ago and it was pretty transparent. This new one was a bit more sophisticated. Basically, it boils down to selling very nice, very well engineered product at a 5x to 10x markup. If you sell any of it, you get to keep 18% for yourself! Three bad things about this... a). relative is out $5k. This is money that they don't have to be spending on nonsense like this. b). they are now pissed that the rest of the family does not want to buy OR get wrapped up in this. c). they are now pissed with me that I printed out stuff on the interweb showing what a dumpster fire this is and that interested consumers can buy stuff that is 90% as good for 10% of the price on Amazon. How does MLM even exist in this day and age?

Hey all: It is about damn time! I've been railing about the education industrial complex for YEARS. A shocking amount of "education" is both a waste of time & resources. Everybody automatically thinks that more education is good. Everybody thinks that teachers/educators are underpaid. Everybody thinks the skools are starved of funds. This is not the case. What is even worse is that it ruins the lives of so many people. We are forcing young adults to make a life altering wager with education. Guess wrong/get faulty education/have problems and you are ruined for life. It would be great if every high school kid had to read this book!

Hey all: You have to wonder how goofs like this get going and get AUM in the 1st place. What could possibly go wrong with incredibly leveraged options? The opportunities are SO GOOD, I am going to bet your house on them! Crazy!

UNF2007: When I worked at Domino's there were people that picked up the pizza in person. I would put that at less than 5%, Domino's selling point was free delivery in 30 minutes or less. Back in the 90's, there was no delivery charge per se. The cost of delivery was built into the price of the pizza. I just called Domino's and it is $3.50 charge for 2 larges in my area, it is waived "if you order a bunch of pizzas". So maybe I stand corrected, and there might indeed be a market for the self driving cars.

I have not heard of ANY self driving vehicles on American roads being used in regular commerce. It is all R&D at this point, unless I am tremendously mistaken. Are you in USA? Could this perhaps be a TEST to see if consumers are willing to do this? Much like automated vehicles for Uber & Lyft, I wonder if there is really a commercial market for this. How much of a savings will a typical Domino's franchisee save by having self driving vehicles for pizza delivery? A pizza delivery driver provides their own vehicle and makes about minimum wage from the franchisee. Tips provide the rest of his earnings. In my area of the world, the pizza delivery driver almost always provides their own vehicle. For an automated delivery, the franchisee is going to have to buy the vehicle. How much will that cost? I would guess at least 50k. How much cheaper will it be to run than having a delivery driver? What will the savings be if any? $50K outlay for a delivery vehicle is going to be a HUGE percentage outlay for the typical franchisee. The typical Dominos would probably also need MORE than 1 vehicle. I would think they would need at least 2, if not 3 or 4 (more?). I've heard rumors that the typical Domino's franchise costs as little as $150k to about $350k in investment. Way back when, I used to be a delivery driver when in college. On busy nights, which were usually Thursday, Friday and Saturday (sometimes Sunday), we would have up to about 10 drivers. On slower weekday nights, we would have 3-4. Drivers would also not usually work 8 hour stretches. Drivers would typically be promised a minimum of 4 hours, and then those who wanted to leave earlier could (if business was slow). So the franchisee could adjust labor pretty quickly. With self driving vehicles, you've got a constant expense, can't let a robot go.

hey all: One could say this is perhaps a political issue...but I am not so sure. Of course, most of the media in the USA is for the "left" and very liberal. Not all media is, and some is more biased than others. However, if they are not understanding, OR mis-reporting things, how does this possibly advance their agenda? Whatever that agenda is (right or left)? All it does is raise suspicion and breed contempt...eventually they will also lose their place in society. This is arguably well under way. I just don't get it.

Hey all: Has anyone else noticed that there has been an increasing amount of innumerate reporters over the years? Not that reporters are the sharpest cue balls in the drawer to begin with...but they wonder why the American public is angry and distrustful. I would submit that this is part of the reason. For example, over breakfast this AM, I was perusing the website "Business Insider" and was reading that the new Ipad pro has "graphics performance is 1,000 times faster." Really? That is quite an accomplishment. Something that would take an hour to render, now takes 3.6 seconds? Sign me up! I've also noticed that a lot of on air announcers get confused/mixed up with millions, billions, and trillions. We all make mistakes...but with journalists, it is their job. I also would give just a bit of leeway to on air people...but the print journalists? Don't they have editors that check stuff before publication? Heck, if these guys get confused/mixed up about numbers, what else are they confused/wrong with?

Hey all: Does anybody know how to get older financial information? Specifically, I am interested in the financial position of Chrysler in the 60's, 70's, 80's, and even into the 90's. I am curious if their financial position (balance sheet), has ever been as strong as it is now. Any help is appreciated!

Hey all: I just noticed today that TSLA is now a little more than 2x FCAU's market cap. Perhaps TSLA should buy FCAU? Just think, then they would have some earnings! So here is what I propose....TSLA vs. FCAU At the time I write this, TSLA is $295.24 and FCAU is $15.68. Which stock will return more to shareholders in 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 1.5 years? I think TSLA very well may win in the short term, but in 1 year+ out, I think FCAU will handily beat it. Any thoughts?

Finally, I can trace the origin of each morsel of the chicken meat in my kebob sandwiches! I hope they are based on Proof-of-Halal though. hey all: It is SCIENTIFIC FACT that the metro Detroit area has the best kabobs & schwarma...I have actually participated many times in field study & research in this important area. You've got Dearborn, Hamtramck, and of course all the "WEST SIDE" restaurants... My "go to" lately has been "Warren Kabob" on Van Dyke...just down the way from FCAU stamping plant. For $7.50, you get your choice of schwarma sandwich, (salad or fries) AND a can of Coke. The side salad is out of this world...amongst the best I've ever had. The fries are actually pretty good too, they cook them till crisp and put the special seasoning on them. Please see: https://www.yelp.com/biz/warren-kabob-warren?osq=warren+kabob The metro Detroit area has the largest concentration of folks from the Middle East, especially Chaldeans from Iraq. Then over in Dearborn, you've got more choices than you know what to do with. The early scientific research seems to point to "Dearborn Meat Market" having the best Kabobs. Please see: https://www.yelp.com/biz/dearborn-meat-market-dearborn?osq=Dearborn+Meat+Market However, not all of the research is in yet, and thus is not conclusive.