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valuedontlie

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  1. i think 20 names might be too low... if they have 10-100x potential then they're likely levered, beaten up, low/negative cash flow, and heading towards the $1 PPS range... i would absolutely buy a basket of 100-200 of these names if you put the list together :)
  2. i think this is more likely to work with a large® basket of "cheap" companies that look on the brink of failure / are down significantly... get a big list with some parameters like YTD down %, low p/b, low p/cf, and maybe even single digit stock price... some likely go BK, some do OK, and some have huge returns (reminds me of HSNI coming out of GFC)...
  3. Markets in free-fall!! Throw a few bucks at a few cheap(ish) looking cos?? (all figures assume you believe guidance...) ADS -- Trading at ~6.8x 2018 EPS, set to sell or spin one (or more) business units DXC -- $50 stock, guiding $8 in 2018 EPS and $12+ by 2022... EPS mostly = FCF DLX -- 6.6x earnings They make checks... the kind you get at the bank... stock is flat from 2013 yet cash flow up 35%, share count down, net debt flat... AGN -- $47bn cap... $4.3bn FCF next year... paying down debt, lapping product cliffs... 2019 down from 2018 but looks good beyond that! BBBY -- Crappy retailer... 7x earnings... nearing guided LT crappy op margins of 5% MYL -- 5x earnings; New product launches mean solid earnings growth for next 2-3 years... Int'l business is big mix... softens the "US generics suck" theme WDC -- Earnings falling off a cliff (but so is stock!)... 5.5% dividend, hardly levered at all, easily <10% FCF yield even with earnings cliff from hard drive weakness... CHTR/CMCSA -- Take your pick, cable cos both 5-year dogs... FLEX -- 7x trailing FCF... trade war could be a problem... contract manufacturing a cyclical biz but trying to do more "value add" stuff whatever that means... have been buying back tons of stock for years now... dumb dumb's... Happy holidays...
  4. I own some shares of iStar... it's an interesting asset recycling idea... My biggest concern is that they've made little/no real progress on winding down these land/development assets ($965m in 2013 and $933m today). The idea is that if they sold all these non-core/non-cash-generating properties and rolled it all into the RE finance/net lease business they could generate some $1-2+ in FFO per share. I plan to give them a bit more time to execute on this but the portfolio hasn't really been simplifying as fast as it could. The timing isn't going to get a whole lot better to start unloading some of these things.
  5. A wealthy, private individual who NEEDS to invest $20-50-100m in RE might prefer a private investment over a public one. The beauty of being a private investor is that there's no mark-to-market. So while the adviser for that wealthy, private individual might get anxious with public share prices declining, it's all smooth sailing with the "absolute returns" of a private RE investment (that is, until they need to sell it at lower prices).
  6. Walter Investment Management (WAC)... WAC is a mortgage servicer/originator (NSM, OCN) going through an out-of-court restructuring for prepackaged BK filing. These were never great public companies and are highly levered, WAC will remain highly levered even if it completes a restructuring. Long story short: 1. Senior notes would get new $250m senior note + 73% of new equity 2. Converts and common equity would share: 27% of new equity + warrants @ $325m & $500m in equity value (similar to TDW setup) Latest presentation calls for EBITDA of $184m in 2018 and $280m in 2019 mostly from cost cuts (accuracy is debatable). Net debt would be ~$1.2bn and share count would be 270m. If equity value were $180m (7.5x EBITDA), common would be worth $0.67/share + warrants (vs. $0.43/share current price). Obviously lots of hair, $1.2bn in debt would mean 6.5x leverage. Term loan and senior lenders have already OKed the restructuring, not sure if they need approval from converts (which are admittedly getting screwed in this deal). Welcome any thoughts...
  7. bskptkl -- could you send me copy of VIC writeup on Ciber?
  8. I have a friend with a public shell on OTCQB and he indicated it is costing him about ~$15k per quarter. This includes $10k annually to OTC Markets. A "cheap" audit will cost $40-60k I believe.
  9. The Stephan Company (SPCO) has been an interesting experiment to watch as activists took over the company some time ago. It trades over the counter and has no designated CEO/CFO. Rather, the company is run entirely by the board with an outsourced CFO. So far they've done a good job of managing costs and turning around the company. Still feel like it would be better off private though I'm not sure cost savings would be significant (doesn't appear they audit financials).
  10. This is a pretty competitive industry with literally no barriers -- have seen this model popping up in my town... There is a widely known/followed reddit post by a guy who started this trend and now outsources his booking/scheduling website to other users... https://www.reddit.com/r/EntrepreneurRideAlong/comments/2w84bs/first_2_million_year_and_a_quick_look_back/
  11. This is more-or-less what my partner and I are trying to accomplish. We've acquired 2 businesses thus far. This plan is easier said than done but the thesis is real. Sent you a PM.
  12. Interesting - thanks for posting Thanks for the interesting idea. Where did you find the management comments on "gamechanging" customers and possible acquisitions? I called them to ask what they plan to do with all that cash... They were optimistic but we'll see if anything materializes... Cash pile is going up and anything else they accomplish would be gravy...
  13. STR Holdings (STRI)... makes solar module encapsulants... commodity, sub-scale, upstream solar business with negative gross margins and sales falling off a cliff... Despite that... company sits on a huge pile of cash/book value... net cash is $0.78/share and BV is $2.15/share relative to a $0.165 stock price... i.e. 0.2x net cash and 0.08x book value... absolute amounts -- $14.4m cash, $39.7m BV, $3m market cap So why own this POS? The company is sitting on a few assets that are about to turn into cash... a $2m note receivable, a $6.2m Malaysian factory which was recently sold, and a large receivables balance (management noted A/R at 2x their "desired level") which could add $2-4m... cash burn is expected to be $2-2.5m per quarter... this would bring in a net $5-6m by yearend which would mean $20m in net cash or $1.08/share... Then what? Management sees the abysmal pricing of its company... they noted biz dev activity could soon bring in 1 or 2 "gamechanging" customers (i.e. turn from CF negative to CF positive instantly)... also looking at acquiring profitable companies in industry (they are sitting on $8-9m in fully reserved NOLs)... This has hair on it (fundamentals, China solar exposure, 50% owner is Chinese company) and I have a hard time believing management's comments on fundamental improvement coming soon but I see catalysts for cash inflows and the idea of liquidation is not off the table (they are waiting to see if these "1 or 2 customers" come through)... at 15% of cash value worth a flier...
  14. Buying private/public businesses is difficult. I have been looking at small private businesses to purchase for several years now without success and that is simply with my own capital. Doing so with other peoples' money would make it much more difficult. This is why private equity funds exist.
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