DTEJD1997

Hey all: Attached is a photo that I believe was taken in 1930. This is of a neighborhood that I grew up in as a child. The building that I grew up in is "Indian Village Manor" and it is the second large building, going from left to right. The 1st large building is Alden Park Manor. I had mentioned this area in one of the early posts on this thread. Specifically, that there were properties along the Detroit River that had been vacant as long (longer actually) than I had been alive. Some of these pieces of land in question are the two houses near the top of the photo, circled in green. Those mansions were torn down before I was born. Looking at this photo is fascinating for me. The first time I saw it, I probably looked at it for 15 minutes....There is so much detail in it. It is instantly recognizable to me, but many, many things have changed, and many things I've never seen. For example, there appear to be 4 HOUSES on top of Alden Park Manor! Maybe these are "penthouses"? I do not believe they are there today. The estate to the LEFT of Alden Park manor belonged to one of the Ford family members. It was eventually sold & torn down...the UAW Solidarity/house headquarters is now there. The large park in back of Indian Village Manor is now largely gone, given way to parking lot. The large dock in the river near Alden Park Manor is gone... The building next to The Detroit Towers (being built in 1930) has been leveled and was replaced by Shoreline East. I would guess that Shoreline East was built in the very late 50's or early 60's. Lastly, that photo/area looks WAY more prosperous in 1930 (Great Depression) than what that area currently is...

1300 E Lafayette by chance? SlowAppreciation: No, it is not 1300 E Lafayette. A long, long, long time ago, I had relatives that lived in that building. My best childhood friend lived maybe 1/4 mile from there. I've walked/driven past 1300 E Lafayette more times than I can even begin to count... I do not specifically know if things in 1300 E. Lafayette got as bad as the other co-op...I am sure that in 2008-2009 they got hit pretty hard. Now, they are probably doing much better. 1300 E. Lafayette is close to Greektown/Downtown. The co-op I lived in was a few miles further down along Jefferson, past the Belle Isle Bridge.

Hey all: Once again, I apologize for not updating this thread like I said I would... It is now time to do battle with the tax assessor's office again. I have been helping one of my neighbors contest his taxes. I have done a little bit of research and Detroit has BY FAR, the highest commercial property tax rates in the country. Please see: http://www.nreionline.com/finance-investment/top-10-cities-highest-commercial-property-taxes Commerical property taxes are suppoesed to be about 4.1% in the city proper. Rates can be higher than that in the suburbs. Many people who do not live here think that Detroit is an inexpensive place to live, as they here stories on the news about $500 houses. . While the Detroit area certainly can be inexpensive IF YOU KNOW EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE DOING...there are many "traps" for the inexperienced. In addition to the high commercial property tax rates, another example is auto insurance, which is most certainly the highest in the country. While that is very high, there is a "hidden" tax in that the roads and highways are in TERRIBLE shape. Every winter most people get blown out tires & or damaged suspensions on their vehicles. This happened to me last year and my father TWICE this winter. He has footed repair bills of close to $800 this season. I also have an associate who used to have a Cadillac CTS-V. He eventually gave up on it and sold it, as the tires & rims would get repeatedly blown out in potholes. I have had high performance sports cars in the past, but would not drive one in the Detroit area. The roads are just too bad. Water & sewage is incredibly expensive also. A few months ago my father had a $3,000 monthly water bill as one of his toilets was running. I don't know if Detroit is the highest in the country, but I bet it is close. Gasoline is also expensive, but it is not the highest in the country. We've also got state/local income taxes. So you've got problems, but you've also go opportunity if you can do it right. With all those problems...where else can you BUY commercial office space for $12/square foot in the suburbs that is not bombed/burned out?

Hey all: There is an abandoned K-Mart near me that is being reworked in an "ultra-mega Kroger". This will be one of the Kroger's with 50+ aisles in it. There is a Kroger about 1.5 miles from where the new one will be going in. It is older & has no where near 50+ aisles of food...so it will be closing once the new one opens. This new one will be in a better, more central location. Obviously it will be MUCH bigger than the one it is replacing. On a side note, I've been to some of the "bars" inside the grocery stores in N.C. They mainly sell/promote craft beer. You can drink beer right there, but they also sell "grumblers" which you can take home & drink. The liquor/beer sales are usually right next to the prepared foods section(s). They really push the craft beer sales. I suspect that the margins on that beer is very high. I think you can also start drinking BEFORE you start shopping. OR you can drink before you shop for food AND after you get done. I wonder if people who have had a drink or three are more likely to make "impulse" purchases of food while walking down the aisles?

Hey all: I've always questioned whether Uber/Lyft had a "defective" business model...it now appears that there is a significant chance that this is correct. MIT published a study claiming that most drivers NET something like $3.25/hour. Apparently the eggheads at MIT got it wrong, and the drivers really make $8/hour on average: Please see: https://nypost.com/2018/03/05/revised-study-finds-uber-drivers-make-more-than-first-reported/amp/ I've known a few attorneys that drive for Uber. Most no longer do it. They made money but it just was not enough after expenses. One attorney said he did reasonably well IF he drove during PEAK DEMAND hours. This would be weekend evenings and late at night when college kids were coming out of the bars. He would also do airport runs. He reported to me that if you were selective about WHEN you drove, you could make OK money....if you just drove all the time and during the day, then it was usually not very remunerative. If I am not mistaken, NEITHER Uber or Lyft has ever reported a profit. Some analysts speculate that these companies will turn profitable once "self driving" cars become available and they can cut out the driver. If the driver is only earning $8/hour, just how much "profit" is there in the business model to begin with? Further, these drivers are shouldering the capital cost of the vehicle and fronting the expenses. If/when Uber/Lyft has to do this...they are going to require BIGLY amounts of capital. I am also going to guess that a fully autonomous car is going to cost at a MINIMUM $50k. What if these cars cost $75k or $100k? They are going to buy a very expensive piece of machinery to capture $8/hour in profit (maybe?). So color me skeptical...I think these companies do not have a viable business model. Any thoughts?

Hey all: There have been rumors & stories circulating for years that there are problems with state lotteries... There are several different people have "gamed" the scratch off tickets such that they can pick which ones are probably winners (not 100% accurate...but accurate enough). One of these people was mentioned in the story, but there are others.

Wages in general have been going up. I was surprised to learn that minimum wage in Michigan is now a little bit over $9/hour. Wages for attorneys have also been going up...until the other day. I saw a large bankruptcy project looking to bring attorneys on board for $20/hour. I was surprised to see that as I've seen projects paying $23-$24/hour and even $25/hour! Overall though, I think I would agree that wages are going up in the near future.

I am going to disagree on the plain vanilla & regional banks. I think right now the banks are operating in a very easy business environment and are making good money. Real estate is up, bad loans are very low... A few years from now, that might be a very different case. Banking seems to be a very cyclical industry with big blow ups every 10-15 years.

Hmm, this is a really good point, DTEJD1997. It makes sense to me that autonomous driving may be a 90/10 thing like so many things in software engineering. Thanks for this--it's certainly changed my mental model of how this change will occur. RichardGibbons: It is good to have reasonable discussion with people of different viewpoints. I am pretty confident in most of my beliefs/assumptions...but not 100%. I am certainly willing to reconsider if I see/hear compelling evidence to the contrary. I suspect that we will see the BEGINNING of the tipping point once we get self driving trucks (or other vehicles) in protected or sheltered environments, most likely to be limited access turnpikes. Those roads are in very good condition, have more uniform traffic, no pedestrians, long straight shots, etc. A prime example of this I think is the Ohio Turnpike. It runs from Indiana to Pennsylvania, East to West. In most areas there is a entrance/exit every 15 miles or so. The road is almost always straight...This would be a perfect place for self driving trucks. I think once it becomes common in environments like that, it will start to spread out. Where I am at (Metro Detroit), the driving conditions can be quite crazy to say the least. One example of this is that in the inner city, late at night, people sometimes will not fully stop at stop signs NOR do they always stop at red lights...I think this is mainly a safety issue. You can't be carjacked if you are moving. Another crazy example is driving speed on some of the freeways. On I=94, on the East side of the city, later at night (11 PM or later, ESPECIALLY on the weekends) traffic will move at an unbelievably fast pace. I refuse to drive faster than 80MPH in my current vehicle in a 55 MPH zone. I'm just not going to do it! HOWEVER, I am frequently one of the slower drivers on the road. I am regularly passed by vehicles traveling at speeds of even 100MPH+ This is incredibly dangerous, as this part of the freeway is VERY old and was never designed for traffic of this speed. The sight lines are sometimes short, and a vehicle moving at 100mph+ can come up on you VERY quickly. Conversely, sometimes there are vehicles moving at relatively slow speeds (40 mph?). Perhaps these drivers are stoned or drunk...they may also be experiencing engine problems? I've also seen vehicles traveling down the freeway with only 3 tires!!!!! The wheel without a tire will be shooting sparks out 4-5 feet...and the car is going about 30 MPH and wobbling back & forth. 3 wheeled vehicles are not a common occurrence, but they are there from time to time. Then of course you've got the cars with different sized tires, with the driver wildly fighting to keep the car in only one lane of traffic. There are also lots of vehicle breakdowns and vehicles abandoned on the side of the road. Then you've got people walking on the shoulder of the road and people crossing the freeway. Unfortunately, there are also lots of crashes & wrecks....lots of debris in the road...lots of potholes & such. So this is a VERY different driving experience than the Ohio Turnpike! A self driving car on I-94 in Detroit is going to have to "bring it's A game"!

Detroit is indeed subject to "deep freeze" weather. This winter has been particularly rough. The weather is obviously difficult on the roads...HOWEVER, the roads in Michigan (Detroit) are orders or magnitude WORSE than roads in Ohio and Indiana. Ohio & Indiana have similar weather conditions as Michigan. There are few factors I think that make Michigan roads worse. A). Michigan has a LOT of truck traffic. Additionally, these trucks are allowed to carry more weight than anywhere else in the country. Truck weights are limited to 164,000 lbs. which are the highest in N. America. B). A lot of the roads are VERY old...Michigan has some of the oldest freeways in the country. The first freeway in America was opened in 1942 in Highland Park (suburb of Detroit). C). Michigan has a lower standard for road thickness and the roads that are built, get built to an inferior standard (as compared to other places) D). Some of the freeways have EXCEPTIONALLY poor design. E). An alarming number of politicians are crooked and/or feeble minded. So we end up with exceptionally poor roads/infrastructure. I think a lot of people in the area simply think that is a "normal" situation. They don't realize it does not have to be that way.... I was in Michigan last month near the Ann Arbor area. I can attest that the highways and roads were the worst I have ever seen in North America. Pot holes everywhere... Ann Arbor is in EXCELLENT condition compared to the East Side of Detroit!

Well, you may very well be right! However, I know a few people in the auto/transportation industry. Some of them are engineers. I've asked them about autonomous vehicles and they think they will first come into "restricted" areas. For example, large trucks driving on access controlled turnpikes. Think freight heading West to East (or vice versa). The guys I know say they've made some tremendous/incredible progress...they are getting maybe 90% of the way there...HOWEVER, the real problem is the unexpected/odd condition on the roads. Humans can adapt to this VERY easily, but the driving systems have terrible problems with this. Nobody is going to ride in a car that is 90% safe...Nobody is going to ride in a car that is 99% safe....What about 99.9% Or 99.95% safe? Hard to make that judgement. Getting that final few percentages of safety may prove to be a very difficult thing indeed! It may take 10X more engineering skill & $$$ to go from 98% safe to 99% safe. As to electric vehicles, they say more of them are coming, no doubt to that....but that very wide spread adoption may take years & years & years. There might NEVER be wide spread adoption unless there is tremendous change made to the electrical grid. There is also a question as to whether or not there is enough lithium & such to even produce enough batteries... So we will see, but I don't see a large change coming in the next 3-5 years.

Education is definitely "over earning".

I am unsure which part of the country you are in...but in the MidWest electric cars are more common than Ferraris but LESS common than Porsches. Electric cars are well LESS than 1% of the market where I am at. Even if the number of electric vehicles sold increased by a factor of TEN, they would still be a tiny minority of the cars on the road. I would also venture a guess that the 3rd world will still be working with ICE vehicles longer than the west does, as it will be cheaper. Then you've got the whole truck situation. As to vehicle sharing...I don't really see that spreading farther than NYC and places where subways are viable. There are ton of people that need vehicles at specific/random times and they need the vehicle NOW, and thus need to own one. There is another large set of people that store stuff in their vehicles (think work tools) and thus need to own a vehicle. A lot of the trendsetters in NYC/LA think that the rest of the country operates/thinks exactly the way that they do...this can lead to dangerous/false assumptions. The best example of this is the election of President Trump!

It's not a question of whether the infrastructures need improvement. It is how we will pay for them! IMHO, this should be the priority instead of the tax cut. How will we pay for it? I'm confused! What happened to all the gas taxes that we pay? The state income taxes? Vehicle registration taxes & fees, the local (city) income taxes, the gas tax that was raised a year ago? Maybe property taxes (some of the highest in the country)? What about the sales tax? What about the lottery? What about all the taxes the casino pay? Where does the "personal property" tax that businesses pay go? I never knew this existed until I had to file/deal with it a few weeks ago! OR what about all the money the government gets for water/sewer? My father had a $3,200 monthly water bill. Perhaps all branches of government need to learn to do MORE for LESS and at a better QUALITY level? The private sector has had to do this for decades...

Detroit is indeed subject to "deep freeze" weather. This winter has been particularly rough. The weather is obviously difficult on the roads...HOWEVER, the roads in Michigan (Detroit) are orders or magnitude WORSE than roads in Ohio and Indiana. Ohio & Indiana have similar weather conditions as Michigan. There are few factors I think that make Michigan roads worse. A). Michigan has a LOT of truck traffic. Additionally, these trucks are allowed to carry more weight than anywhere else in the country. Truck weights are limited to 164,000 lbs. which are the highest in N. America. B). A lot of the roads are VERY old...Michigan has some of the oldest freeways in the country. The first freeway in America was opened in 1942 in Highland Park (suburb of Detroit). C). Michigan has a lower standard for road thickness and the roads that are built, get built to an inferior standard (as compared to other places) D). Some of the freeways have EXCEPTIONALLY poor design. E). An alarming number of politicians are crooked and/or feeble minded. So we end up with exceptionally poor roads/infrastructure. I think a lot of people in the area simply think that is a "normal" situation. They don't realize it does not have to be that way....

Hey all: There is a lot of work that needs to be done in the USA.... This is ESPECIALLY true in the industrial Midwest, particularly Michigan. Our roads & bridges are falling apart. In the last two winters, my vehicles have been damaged MULTIPLE times from the poor road conditions. I am not the only one, most of my friends and family members have damage to their vehicles as well. Some bridges are in SHOCKINGLY bad repair. Support pillars are crumbling to pieces. Not every bridge is like this, but a surprising amount are, especially in the city core. I doubt the Detroit area is the only area needing substantial rework & repair.

Hey all: One company that is truly long term focused is Seaboard (SEB). They've had one heck of a run!

There have been reports that the new vehicle Tesla is producing has MAJOR quality problems as it is being built by hand, is rushed, and so on. There are reports of hundreds of these vehicles sitting in lots waiting to have remedial work done on them. There are also reports that the existing higher end vehicles are having much higher defect rates than in the past. Maybe this is a result of the new vehicle being added to the product mix? I think Tesla's reputation for producing a quality vehicle has been damaged, but only slightly... I think the bigger problem is that they can't profitably ramp up production of the new vehicle(s). I've also heard industry scuttlebutt that they MAJOR procedural problems and have not nearly invested in needed infrastructure and capital equipment. This is appearing to be the case... I would think that is a much bigger issue at this point than quality control on the new car. At some point I imagine they will get most of the quality issues worked out. The real question is can they produce enough of them? If they can produce enough, can they produce them efficiently enough to make a profit? Of course, profits are an antiquated 20th century idea! This is a new era, and things are different this time!

It might seem crazy but it could be rational. Especially if people in the drug trade are using BTC. Or... it might help to think of these ATMs as automated lottery ticket vending machines with very high fees paid to the owner. Poor people love to buy lottery tickets for a chance to dream of winning big. I need to get some caffeine and get up working speed with my brain! YES, there is an INCREDIBLE drug trade on/near 8-Mile. I once counted the number of dope stores and was astounded. There are also unlicensed medicinal cocaine & heroine distributors along 8 Mile. I imagine that you could get anything that you wanted. On the other hand...I can't imagine that most of the street level purveyors of the drugs would be sophisticated enough to use bitcoin...perhaps it is the upper level dealers? People along 8-MILE love, Love, LOVE lottery tickets too! some liquor stores advertise that they have more than lotto ticket dispenser so you don't have to wait as long... It might also be a way to launder cash from the drug trade? I'll look into it further....

Hey all: Has anybody else seen a Bitcoin ATM? I have. I have seen two now. There is one installed in a gas station on 8 Mile road!!!! I asked the clerk how long it has been there...a few months...how busy is it? Never seen anybody use it was the answer. I wonder who decided to place a Bitcoin ATM in a gas station on 8 Mile road? I wonder if it is like those frozen yogurt robot commercials that I hear every so often on obscure AM radio stations? "Buy a frozen yogurt robot dispenser and you'll make tons of kash! We will even help you place them in a great location!" If frozen yogurt robot dispensing machines made TONS OF KASH, why would the company need to sell them to other people? I can just imagine some person with more $$$ than common sense thinking this is a good idea. They live in NYC or LA...and the seller tells them they've got a great gas station in Detroit on 8 Mile road where they can put BOTH a Bitcoin ATM & a frozen yogurt robot! The kash is just waiting for you to pick it up! Meanwhile, the dupe in LA/NYC has no idea that the infamous 8 Mile Road is just one step from Mad Max times...

Generally speaking, I will invest in ALMOST anything that is legal.... HOWEVER, there are a few things that I struggle with. One clear "NO GO" for me is most "for profit" education. Some of these companies are legit and do good for their students and society as a whole. HOWEVER, a good chunk of them, perhaps a majority, are simply lying scamsters. They are a curse on society, a burden on their students & graduates, and serve to enrich nobody other than senior level management. These are the places that are running diploma mills, places where credits don't transfer, students don't learn, graduates don't get jobs. Management is producing fraudulent sales brochures and fraudulent statistics for accreditation & regulators. Simply a scam to transfer wealth from the government to the senior level management. Students & graduates get caught in the middle. For example, tobacco & cigarette companies. The product they sell is detrimental to people's health and society. HOWEVER, it is a legal product and it's risks are well known and understood. Multi-level Marketing MLM is another difficult area. These things are largely frauds. I would also posit that if you are invested in a company that you find out is doing something fraudulent & illegal, you've got an obligation to get out and NOT profit from their misdeeds. With those caveats, as long as everything is disclosed and above board, I have no problem investing in companies that charge very high interest (buy here, pay here auto lots), credit cards, defense companies, gun companies, alcohol companies, gambling & casinos. Different things for different folks.

I have a hobby selling physical gold & silver. I will sell bars & coins and stuff like that. I have established clients and am always getting new ones. I can tell you WITHOUT A DOUBT that more people are interested in precious metals when the price is going up and the price is HIGH. Most people WILL NOT buy when the price is low...they are too scared it is going lower. They want to buy when it is high & going higher. I also suspect that this is the same in most markets. Perhaps it is because Jane Blow heard about Joe Blow making a killing in XYZ market. That peaks her interest and she wants to be like "Joe Blow". At the bottom of markets, you aren't hearing about how people made a killing...you are hearing about how they LOST MONEY. Nobody wants to lose, so nobody is interested. At market tops (or near) you hear plenty of stories about people getting rich, paying off houses, how "it is different this time" and so on. Thus, more people get interested, get involved and the market(s) go higher. A self reinforcing loop?

I like your writing style. Professional wordsmith. A 4.5 cap rate would imply a very high quality property. With minimal ways to value add. Except pricing power down the road. A person not in the public domain once told me " In the real estate game you focus on the lowest of the low end or the luxury end. No middle ever!" That said, its all relative to the market. Low end in LA might be luxury in the heartland. Its either distressed in a good location and having a creative idea to increase earning power or just buy luxury and golf. Why are reits so low? I dont' know. On paper reits seem like a better alternative. Premfan, I've been called a lot of things over the years, ESPECIALLY by irate ex-girlfriends! A "professional wordsmith" has never been one of them! Thank you! That made my afternoon... I go far & wide and look at all sorts of different and unusual stuff....some things better than others....HOWEVER, I am not generally looking at "A" properties. Some of them might arguably be "B" properties...but in reality most of them would probably be "C" or even lower yet! As time passes, I am generally moving "up the food chain" and getting into better quality properties. One thing I notice is that a lot of realtors do NOT act or conduct business in a very professional manner. Obviously, some do, and some are true experts...but I think that business tends to attract a lot of part timers...and you can tell who those are pretty quick. Now that I think of it...I have only purchased one property with an agent/broker. All the other transaction have been seller/buyer. Also, most of my transactions have been "non-listed" properties. I go where the bargains are, and they sure ain't on the MLS or LoopNet!

I've been wondering this too... In my area...prices & cap rates for commercial real estate is all over the board. One trend is very clear, prices are going UP, cap rates are going DOWN. HOWEVER, when I look at some properties and discuss them with the broker, I'll query as to why I should pay the asking price when I can get 7-8-9-10 in REIT's. The REIT's are almost 100% passive investments on top of that. Why should I buy your listed property for a 4.5% cap rate? The broker then kind of gets of gets silent, shuffles their feet, looks at the floor, "yea, I know"...Almost like a kid that has been caught cheating on a test or homework assignment. They then suggest that the owner is "open to reasonable offers". I think that LISTED properties will have the broker pressuring the owner to list it at "top dollar" and see if they can get it. The brokers are always trying to push prices higher. There is a LOT of stupid money out there. If they get top dollar, GREAT! If not, they can always lower the price in a few months? HOWEVER, if you list the property just too high...nobody might not even make an offer on it, AND you've wasted MONTHS of your time.

Hey all: There is some crazy stuff going on bitcoin & crypto-currency mining. Demand for graphics cards & certain other parts has just gone insane. I use low end & medium end graphics cards from time to time for various projects...One of my customers asked if I could get any higher end stuff..which I could. He started buying wildly. I then noticed that you could buy a $500 graphics card and sell it instantly on Ebay for $750! BINGO! I have good access to wholesalers and started selling stuff right & left. This went on for about 2 weeks. Then the outages at wholesalers hit...I was able to get stuff as I buy a lot of other stuff, so I got priority...then a week ago, wholesaler raised prices of graphics cards across the board. In some cases, prices have tripled. $500 graphics cards are now $1,500!!!!! So now I'm out of the lop...but $150-$200 cards which I need from time to time are now $300 to $500. So now I can't make any money on certain things, as I can't get components for reasonable prices. My clients aren't crypto-mining, so they can't pay that much more. So if I am hurting, I wonder what is going on with smaller PC manufacturers/assemblers? I bet Apple & Dell can get product...but anybody else might have difficulty. What about the card manufacturers making more cards? They are trying their best, BUT they got burned the last time with crypto-currency mining. Word on the street is that they are not going to make any significant expansion and users will just have to learn to deal with shortages & higher prices.