DTEJD1997

I would hire my own drivers as well as have owned delivery vehicles. The delivery vehicles would be small cargo vans (really small) or small hybrid cars. The hired drivers would also be able to do simple tasks when things are slow (sweeping, breaking boxes, taking out trash). Another thing is that the vehicles would be optimized for food delivery (hot box & cold box). Efficient to run. One of the other most important things would be for them to be moving billboards. Wrapped with colorful graphics showing name, website & food pictures. As moving billboards, could change the graphics seasonally? While I would have a SMALL core of dedicated drivers & vehicles, would also work with delivery services. There are a few restaurants that I eat in, that I am SHOCKED at the amount of carry out/delivery that they do. The core foods would probably be pizza & chicken....but then could also have a GREAT salad & juice selection? Also have an oriental type food? There are not many good Chinese places in this part of the city. I also suspect that while the typical Chinese menu might have 250 different items on it, 85% of $$$ volume consists of the top 2 dozen items? Offer Chinese, but only have 30 selections? Even Indian perhaps? Polish? Caribbean? If the kitchen is shared between 4-5 concepts, the 5th concept might be profitable to run as long as you got 12-16 orders a night? Probably would ALWAYS have pizza/chicken and salad/juice and maybe Chinese, but then rotate the last two concepts? Rotation would allow you to try different ideas easily and not have to wager a whole restaurant on it. A "ghost kitchen" might be able to serve Indian food profitably if they could do 200 dishes a week? Also have different things seasonally? I think that if you could acquire the real estate/location AND outfit the kitchen cheaply/smartly AND have smart advertising (vehicles & website & social media) AND have a few key people, the margins and volume might be very compelling. A few things HAVE to fall into place, but once you've got those, then you have a good chance at success. If I am right about the margins, you could have higher quality ingredients AND pay somewhat more to the workers. Better quality & motivated workers leads to competitive advantage and virtuous circle.

Hey all: Trying to take my mind of my Fed-Ex problems. One business I've been contemplating is a "ghost kitchen". I've got a line on a piece of property that used to be a small restaurant. It was closed down, and has been vacant for years. It is functionally impaired, as it is simply way to small for a "traditional" restaurant. HOWEVER, there are several interesting things going on with it. A). It is in a "working class" neighborhood, and prices are moderate. HOWEVER, it is literally 3 blocks from a MUCH higher end city(s). From this location, it is very easy to deliver to the "Grosse Pointes". For those of you not familiar with the Detroit area, the Grosse Pointes are 5 small cities all next to each other. They were the highest end Detroit suburbs back in the 50's, 60's, 70's....and they are still very near the top. Very high end. I would imagine that the right cuisine would appeal to residents of the Pointes. You've also got a good amount of population that is easily reachable, but "The Pointes" are the major deliverable area/target. The location is also 1/8 of a mile from a major freeway. You've got good access points to major roads/expressways/traffic arteries. B). In addition to be a "ghost kitchen", the property could do multiple duties. For example, it could act as a commissary for a food truck or three. In the morning, the food trucks are cleaned/prepped. The kitchen prepares what food is needed to be prepared for the trucks from say 7 AM to 10 AM. At 10 AM, food trucks roll out, and prep then switches over to the "ghost kitchens". Goal is to be online at 11 AM for the "ghost kitchen" delivery. So you've got cheap real estate in a location that is literally blocks from very high end neighborhoods with good access points to traffic arteries. Perfect set-up for "ghost kitchen"? Of course, one of the keys is having a good chef(s) and workers. Chef, Assistant chef, food prepper, phone/order taker, and then 3-4 delivery drivers? If that problem is solved, could you do 3/4 of the revenue of a traditional sit down restaurant for 1/4 the capital investment? Bonus $$$ for food trucks? We will see!

Hey all: I'm doing some analysis on a small group of restaurants. One of the main things I'm trying to figure out and evaluate is their rent as a percent of sales. Specifically, if that is lower than their competitors and how it will effect their profitability going forward. If I correct that they are paying a good rate on their rent, that might be small competitive edge? This is JUST RENT to occupy their locations. Not insurance, utilities, taxes, labor or any other costs at this time. I'm looking at a chain's rent that is higher than 3% of sales, but LESS than 4%. I think they've got a good thing going, but want to check/verify this with other investors who may have more experience/knowledge.

I know there are MONEY MANAGERS who have never experienced a true bear market! It is one thing to read about bear markets and collapsing sectors...it is another thing altogether to actually go through it. To lose money, to lose your job maybe, to lose properties or businesses. I knew people who went through the Great Depression and it changed them forever. There are also a TON of real estate people starting to pop up today who weren't active in 08/09/10 when prices cratered. The government has intervened WAY TOO MUCH with interest rates and the markets. Every so often, you need a recession to clear out stupid/weak companies, businesses, projects, investors. Since it has been so long since we've had a recession, there are lots of overvalued/stupid/weak investments/projects/businesses going on.

Hey all: The Canadian documentary series "Trailer Park Boys" is a very enlightening show about our northern neighbors. I am surprised that it has been able to go on as long as it has!

Hmmm, interesting topic of discussion. I don't think Warren will get the nomination OR win the election. She is going to have too much trouble with her Indian heritage and pregnancy firing. HOWEVER, you never know! Two stocks that might do well are EZPW and FCFS. These are pawn shop operators. They have large portions of their business in Texas and the South. Warren is anti-oil, and oil will likely suffer. Texas still has a big chunk of it's economy oil related...so a lot of people there would be out of work. People who lose their jobs might be going to the pawn shop? Gun manufacturers will probably suffer as attempts to revoke the 2nd amendment are made. Obviously you will want to be short anything auto related. You will also want to be short shipping & trucking as the economy contracts. Those that say the President can only do so much are right in some sense...but I think they are absolutely WRONG in that they overlook 2nd and 3rd order effects. The President sets the tone and direction. If Warren is elected, what would her 2nd term look like? What will her supporters be up to? What will the overall mood & direction of the country be? Short the Bill of Rights, long re-education camps?

Hey all: It could be that if you do a charge back on AirB&B, you might get suspended or kicked out of the system. If somebody uses frequently or relies on AirB&B for business travel, they may simply take their lumps with a bad/fraudulent rental rather than risk getting thrown out of the system.

Hey all: Looks like the founder, Adam Neumann is out at WeWork. Everything is not too bad for him though. In order for him to bow out AND sell his shares back to the company, he is exiting with about $1.7BB. Not too bad a pay day! According to Business Insider, a lot of employees are "pissed" at that amount of money. Are they "pissed" because of the low valuation of the company? Thus hurting their stock/options value? Or maybe that Neumann got so much $$$$ with the company losing money by the TRAINLOAD, broken business model, and being on the verge of insolvency? I wonder how much capital Softbank will put behind WeWork? Seems to me that if you have a multibillion company that is losing $1 for every dollar in revenue, you don't really have a valid business model?

Hey all: Here in Detroit there was a "gold rush" in marijuana dispensaries. It was supposed to turn Detroit around, it was a GROWTH industry! When I was working as an attorney out in the distant suburbs a couple years ago, I would sometimes have to drive down the infamous "8 Mile" road. One side of 8 Mile is Detroit proper, the other is a suburb. I would drive about 20 miles or so down 8 Mile to get to work. At one point in time, I counted just over 40 marijuana related businesses on 8 Mile. 90%+ of them were in Detroit. I think 2 were in Southfield, 1 in Warren, everything else in Detroit It was simply KRAZY. All sorts of abandoned buildings were being bought, fixed up, and redone for MJ sales. Some of the buildings had a tremendous amount of capital put into them. Fast forward to today. 8 Mile certainly has a lot of dope shops...but several never opened/shut down. There seems to be a shake out in the industry. Of course, selling dope never overtook manufacturing. People are grousing that there is also not enough tax money coming from it. Who would have ever thought that casino gambling/lottery and dope sales wouldn't lead to a prosperous future?

Some people write on SA to have a public record of their analysis & calls. Some people write to simply get exposure. I know a dude that didn't go to college...wanted more than anything to become a financial analyst. He wrote articles for a few years on SA, eventually attaining his goal with a small firm. He was hired & making some amount of money. Just how successful he is, can't say, but it got him exposure to people who hire. I also suspect that some people are writing to influence pricing on thinly traded stuff, and "pump & dumps". Finally, some people just enjoy writing.

Hey all: Last week a bunch of brokerages in the USA largely moved to "free" trading for individual investors. This has me thinking are there going to be some unintended consequences? Could we see trading volume/volatility spike up now that there are almost no costs to trading? Obviously, brokerages are going to make less money, and the economics of that business have changed for the worse. Could we see asset managers have to lower fees also? Could it set off a chain reaction? Could people expect things for free in other industries? Could we see more individual investors who generally have small amounts to invest get started? Going to be interesting to see what happens!

Hey all: I know everybody's favorite website here is "Zerohedge"! Obviously, you've got to take their stuff with a grain or two of salt...but today they've two pretty damning articles on the "WeWork" bidness. I wonder if "WeWork" has a location at the corner of 8-Mile & Gratiot in Detroit? Please see: "Is WeWork a Fraud?": https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wework-fraud and https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wework-business-model-systemic-risk-economy-feds-rosengren-warns Could a WeWork implosion be the trigger for a wider recession? Maybe? Interesting times are certainly on the way!

hey all: Interesting story today that the videos from the Navy are real and never were meant to be publicly released. Please see: https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a29073804/navy-ufo-videos-real/ The military is saying the videos are unexplained, BUT that there are NOT aliens in/controlling the crafts. If the videos are truly unexplained, then how do they know that the objects are not controlled by aliens? If they are unexplained, then who knows exactly what they are? COULD be aliens? One thing that I think is a common thread in all three videos is that the UFO's are all above the water. Instead of Aliens, would it not be wild if there was another intelligence living in the oceans? This was part of the story of the movie, Abyss.

Whoopsie Oopsie! Seems like WeWork backers now want to shelve the IPO, possibly until October: Please see: https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-will-likely-delay-its-ipo-report-2019-9 Some old timers have told me that the stock market becomes volatile in October. Could be difficult to do an IPO then? How this thing is even worth $1, beats me!

There were hundreds or thousands of companies like this in the dot.com bubble. Growing revenues and huge losses that had minimal scale effects. It was total insanity. It was a frenzy though and speculators kept throwing money into it until it all blew up. Funny enough there are copycats of Wework. One day the funding window will shut for speculative garbage and many will fail. I would suggest that there might have been a business model to sell out to WeWork. If you look at the number of companies they have acquired through the years, it is quite a bit. Please see: https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/wework-has-acquired-more-than-20-companies-in-the-run-up-to-its-ipo Putting together rented, flexible space is not rocket surgery. Pretty simple model.

What will happen is that they will have to lower rates to attract more tenants. Possibly they will also have to offer more/better spiffs. Maybe offer free Coke/juice/seltzer water/beverages & snacks to tenants? Of course, they will probably shut down bad/marginal locations. So instead of losing a TON of money, they'll be losing money by the TRAINLOAD. If these guys can't make money with hundreds of locations, billions in revenue, AND the economy like it is, WHEN WILL THEY MAKE MONEY? I think the obvious answer is never. Just a question of how many people they can draw in, how much money insiders can pull out, and how long it goes. not Enron or Lehman so much as drexel burnham...funding long term assets (leaseholds from building owners) with short term money (short term subleases). like a hotel, what do you do if the your room occupancy goes down?

Maybe the bull market is getting long in the tooth? It has been going for quite a while? Maybe even the MOMO players are getting tired of "silly" companies, such as "We Work"...Thing was supposed to be IPO'ing at something like $40BB of value. They are burning cash at an alarming rate...no hope of attaining profitability in the short to medium term. Imagine a WeWork buyer...will the company be worth DOUBLE what it is today in 10 years? Not an unreasonable hope/aspiration. So then, the company would be worth about $80BB. In 10 years, I would imagine that they would have to be making money. In 10 years, I would think it would be reasonably profitable? Say a 15 P/E? So they would have to be netting $5BB a year, maybe $6BB a year? That amount of PROFITABILITY would be DOUBLE it's current REVENUE! Is that going to happen in 10 years? Just how much of an addressable market is there for this kind of thing? Meanwhile, something like FCAU is trading for a 4 P/E....

hey all: Looks like the IPO of WeWork is now in jeopardy. Please see: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/softbank-urges-wework-shelve-its-ipo-its-time-think-unthinkable Could this mark the height of the market? Especially that of the "Unicorn IPO's"?

Hey all: Real estate has gone absolutely crazy in the Detroit area. There are now houses SELLING for over $100,000 on the East side of Detroit! I'm not talking about Indian Village...just regular brick houses that are a bit above average. Heck, there are even houses in "hot" areas such as the University District that have sold for $300k. Ten years ago, these houses maybe have sold for $20k and $40k...so prices have gone up many multiples. Over time, real estate usually goes down in price in Detroit. I've got to wonder what is going to happen in the next economic downturn. Going to be interesting!

Republicans USED to care about it in the 70's and 80's. Maybe even a little in the 90's, but that is largely gone now. People are only going to care when there is some problem...runaway inflation, failed treasury auctions, some type of shock to the system. Until then? SPEND AWAY!

Hey all: I am going to suggest that some people on this board simply have NO IDEA what is going on in some of the skool districts in this country. This is doubly true for inner city districts such as Detroit. Kind of out of sight, out mind problem. I see it, I interact with it, and I'm telling you guys there is a bad, Bad, BAD problem. Words written on the interweb simply can not convey how bad the system/issue has become. This is also not a new problem. It has been a problem for varying lengths of time in different places, but here in Detroit, it has been going on for longer than I've been alive. You've got multiple generations of people going through the system with little/no hope of being able to get an education. You've got the teachers & educators constantly dissembling about what the problem is. Teachers & administrators are ALWAYS agitating for more money. Most people in MI think that teachers are vastly underpaid, can barely make ends meet...truth is that in DPS, average teacher salary is about 2X local populace....sometimes 3x or more. They also get summers/holidays off, pension, and healthcare. They also have reasonable job security. So teachers have MANY benefits that "regulars" don't. So how much money will solve the problem? When it is a societal/structural problem, NO amount of money will solve the problem. Heck, why does Detroit spend MORE per student than Grosse Pointe? $15k per year is not enough? What about $20k? $25k, $50k? more? What is being spent? What are the results? We are spending a TON of money, hardly anybody is getting an education. Why are we trying to educate students who are unruly, disrespectful, disruptive, not wanting to be there? Whose parents also don't want education? $15k per year, per student for this? For these results? Meanwhile, those students who are on the fence OR who do want an education get their's ruined by the troublemakers? I wish that we could save some of these kids...maybe even a good chunk of them. Letting things run as they have condemns thousands & thousands every year. The word has to get out, we need awareness of the problem, we need structural change NOW!

Hey all: Here is a funny video from Detroit! Detroit is now starting to get up & running with farms. After all the houses/buildings got burned down and bulldozed, there is acre after acre of open land. Farms are now coming in and a sheep (not llama) got loose from one. The people in the vehicle chasing it down sound like they are a having a funner time than the naughty llama! ENJOY: https://www.facebook.com/wxyzdetroit/videos/953151331704115/

I am not 100% sure this is an optional program. I think that it is optional. What I am SURE of is that you can wait the 1-2 weeks for normal payroll processing and NOT get charged any fee. You are only charged a (variable fee) when you withdraw/use the money early. The fee is less for charges, more for cash?

Hey all: The local radio station was all abuzz with talk of "work today, get paid tomorrow!". Evidently, a lot of legitimate employers are now offering this to their workers. The radio host thought that it might be a bad idea, because it was not forcing workers to be disciplined enough to make their paycheck last 1 week or 2 weeks. Turns out, workers are given a debit card, and they can access their pay as soon as 24 hours later for a small fee ($1.50 to $3). I don't think they can get cash, they get it loaded on the card. I think it is stupid for a worker to pay to get to their money....but why not? As long as everything is spelled out in very clear terms. Let people negotiate amongst themselves. Anybody else hear/see this going on?

I think the issue of cramming algebra to kids who are not interested in it is relatively minor in the education picture (although still important). The much bigger issue is teaching kids who have little to no background/motivation/parental supervision/parental role models/peer support/supporting environment/etc. skills that would allow them to make something productive from their lives. Possibly to ambivalent or even hostile kids. This is very hard to do and it's not surprising that even best intentions and programs don't work (like Bill Gates discovered). I think it depends on where you are at, which school district, and sometimes even the school. As was highlighted in the article link by LC, there are NUMEROUS children (and families & culture) who do not value education. Some might say that they are even hostile towards education. So why force them to do something they don't want/appreciate? Society is spending billions & Billions & BILLIONS on this. Why not make education voluntary? Promote it, work with community leaders, run PSA announcements like "Mr. T says Don't be a FOOL, STAY IN SCHOOL!". Let ANYBODY who wants an education in the system. Work to educate them to the best of their capability to learn. HOWEVER, the student has a duty to be reasonably well behaved, show up the vast majority of the time, attempt to do the work to the best of their ability, and so on. If they mis-behave or don't want to be there, that is fine. If a child mis-behaves, they are EITHER out of the system OR if the parent consents, they will be disciplined and if the behavior is bad enough, they are sent to remedial classes where they will dealt with appropriately. If the child & parents don't care, why should we? Why should burn precious capital in a futile gesture? Perhaps most importantly of all, why should we allow trouble makers to sabotage OTHER children's education? Change is desperately needed!