John Hjorth

Roche AG Statement [March 13th 2020] : Roche statement on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. Conctract Pharma [March 17th 2020] : Roche Ships First 400,000 COVID-19 Tests. Roche : cobas® 6800 System. - - - o 0 o - - - Denmark : Finans.dk [March 17th 2020] : Fast coronatest ready at the end of the week in Denmark.

Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team [March 16th 2020] : Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand. This should be the report that made Mr. Johnson & his government change strategy for the UK.

Schwab, What are you specifically referring to when you mention "5-6 days doubling"? 2nd page 2nd question 1st paragraph of 3/6/20 report Q - How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses different? The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID- 19. Thank you for the reply, Schwab. -Got it.

Schwab, What are you specifically referring to when you mention "5-6 days doubling"?

Tweet by Ravi Nagarajan.

Dalal.Holdings, By all means, please keep your posts coming here on CoBF.

In this topic, now seatbelts. Why not? What's next?

Viking, You bet it's real. Denmark was next [in the meaning, it has already happened]. Denmark is almost shut down totally right now. It's nearly impossible for me to describe what's being going on here over the last one or two weeks [well, that is : without totally spamming this topic]. The best place to look to get a feeling of how things have evolved over the last couple of weeks here is to actually look at the WHO sit reports - the latest, and then also grab the one a week before that. [Denmark has been climbing the list in the section for European countries for about every day in the last week with a "good clip" [ : - / ]]. - - - o 0 o - - - The Danish government has been ramping up extremely agressive on countermeasures within the last few days - so agressive, that it has been almost breathtaking.

No real physical Woodstock for Capitalists this year. The only responsible action to take, as of now.

Why? Anyone who has been indexing and continues to DCA and index will do quite well. Possibly better than high percentage of people from CoBF (as we have seen with past polls). Most of them wont. Interesting take & exchange. As a CoBF stock picker, have you done your homework [basically] ? [Naturally, time will tell.]

He has enough cash to buy back stock at a certain % of daily trading volume (whatever the max without moving the price) AND buy other things. Gents, Fascinating exchange! [ : - ) ] -Let's see!

I'm not leaning towards selling it. This isn't the Spanish flu which primarily targeted people in their 20s,30s,40s and largely left the children and elderly alone. The level of panic will subside once the general public comes to understand this. I am fearful for my parents who are in their 70s and 80s (my father has had pneumonia in the past 6 months) and I have two close social contacts with stage 4 cancer undergoing chemotherapy. However, I don't fear for myself, my wife or my kids . (I remarried in January). https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/white-house-wont-explain-how-it-would-pay-for-trumps-proposed-payroll-tax-holiday.html Underwhelming... futures -500 Trump is still a predictable putz. Very, very large numbers...details? Nil. It reminds me of a post long time ago here on CoBF, by rb, about indebted, but highly edutated US youth, who really didn't had a chance to move on in adulthood in a positive way. As a society [& for every single voter], every voter has to make up each own mind. [WYSIWYG].

The content of this topic here on CoBF is simply awesome! -Thank you to all! [Nobody forgotten, nobody mentioned.] - - - o 0 o - - - [Now I'll shut up & go back to reading mode again ...]

If this is adresseed towards me, please say so, instead of wrapping it in calling me a "*sshole*.

Exactly. We are sorely lacking reliable info and we are about to get tons of it. Wall Street tends to shit first and ask questions later. At -12% for the broader index, it’ll be interesting to see what’s priced in. Please read Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [16-24 February 2020]. If you don't relate to what's in that report [p. 11], you are at best on your own.

Dalal.Holdings, At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.] In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking. Allow me to bring a slightly different view here. Dalal, we’ve actually corresponded on this before, but it seems like most of your posts here include some form of ridicule or attempt to dig on the intelligence of other people on this forum. I’ll ask you the same thing as I did last time. Do you think this helps your goal of informing/persuading others? Or do you believe it hurts it? Are you being effective in your goal? The last time we spoke about this, you seemed to indicate that you thought you may have over-imitated Munger in your posts here, so I would ask you to invert. How would you make it so that people are significantly less likely to listen to you? And this isn’t necessarily limited to Dalal.Holdings, btw. He just happens to be the latest person to do it on this thread. merkhet, And by which line of communication - here on CoBF - have you been having this line of communication with Dalal.Holdings?

Dalal.Holdings, At least for my personal part, you're excused. In fact, I really want to read here on CoBF, what's on your mind. At least to me, something went wrong between you and me, earlier in this topic. I think I gave one [or perhaps a few] of my posts a political reaction & angle, on which you reacted [without reaction from me, but sure as heck from other CoBF members.] In short, for my personal part, please keep your posts coming, also from exactly now. I really want to read what you're thinking.

Viking, Respectfully, to me, your last post is not correct. WHO has known since February 25th 2020, that any strategy to contain the virus would fail. I'll document it in my next post.

Viking, Thanks. [ : - ) ] This topic is a high velocity topic right now here on CoBF. [For a good reason.] While you were posting, I was editing my post, adding your definition of death rate for the ship in Japan. Perhaps I even added some false information while editing. [About everyone initially being on the ship as of now being off the ship, cleared.]

Viking, Please read my "rat lab" analysis of that particular situation about that cruise ship in Japan here. The realized "confirmed cases" [infection] rate ended up at ~ 19 percent, the death rate ended up at ~ 0.16 percent. [Edit : So the death rate among the infected was [0.16 % / 19%] ~0.85 percent.] I think that today, everyone then on board has left the ship.

[ ; - ) ]

Greg, <Off topic> Seriously, your posts have been growing on me nicely within the last few months. I think I understand you now much, much better than just a few months ago. Again, seriously. [No place for fun or something like that here.] </Off topic>

WHO Sit Report 44. The whole situation in the US and how it has evolved over time is certainly concerning, no doubt about that, ref. what has already been discussed in this topic. - - - o 0 o - - - From a humanitarian point of view, now please try to look at the following numbers & figures : Nepal : Confirmed cases : 1, Deaths : 0. [Population : 29 M [Source]], Sri Lanka: Confirmed cases : 1, Deaths : 0 [Population : 21 M [Source]], & India : Confirmed cases : 6, Deaths : 1 [Population : 1,376 M [Source]]. - - - o 0 o - - - Do you have any trust in the India numbers? What are my fellow board members, located in India [, or with family and/or friends in India] saying about this?

Viking, Right now the overall situation reminds me of the plot in Deep Impact, just before the POTUS declares for the World Society, that the first attempt - by secretive preparations among several countries - to blow out the comet from space has failed, by declaring on television : "We have failed.". - - - o 0 o - - - Well, perhaps an exaggeration for my part. And then not : In short, all attempts so far to contain the virus have failed, as far as I know, no matter the strategy executed.

Viking, That reads like a terrible nightmare in full daylight. Imagine getting run over by a bus that you need a microscope to see. And the US healthcare authorities have had all the strategies executed on first in China, next all the European etc. strategies to study, copy & make adjustments to before execution - now for several weeks -, and now this.