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John Hjorth

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Posts posted by John Hjorth

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Berkshire 2030

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    John

    I think of Buffet comment about $100 billion return in the same vein as I do of Watsa being able to pull something close Teledyne’ buyback program. More or less as aspirational goals.

     

     

    I don't view it that way. 

     

    FFH has had no shortage of places to allocate its capital (some have been good, some have been disappointing), but it has been chronically in need of more to fund its acquisitions, pay that annual divvy and to (not) repay debt.  Prem's assertions about buybacks require a fundamental shift in corporate strategy, which is not an impossible outcome but as they say, I'm from Missouri. 

     

    In contrast, BRK generates about $40b of cash from operations per year, and the investment portion of its SCFP and the cash balance sadly demonstrates a lack of opportunities to deploy that capital.

     

    So, FFH might be willing to initiate a long-term significant return of capital, but it is largely unable to do so without a drastic change in corporate strategy.  BRK is *fully able* to return $20B per year, but is seemingly unwilling to do so.  The outcome has been similar, but the underlying problem is quite different.  I would not describe Prem's or Warren's statements as "aspirational" but rather as "disingenuous" in both cases.

     

     

    SJ

     

    Thank you to you both for replies, Xerxes & StubbleJumper,

     

    Somehow, the whole thing boils down to "hunger" [for returns] vs. risk awareness. [ ; - ) ] - If & when I start selling out of the [monster] Berkshire position owned by my family and I, I'll post about it here on CoBF - You'll likely get no better buying signal! [ ; - ) ]

    Berkshire 2030

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Thanks for the quote, Xerxes,

     

    It basically says it all : The nightmare of being old [read : less time to act] and loaded with cash, and at the same time with an almost life long pledge to do what's best for the long term partners / co-shareholders for the future.

     

    There is to me, however, some comfort in that I could easily construct a worse nightmare for a nonagenarian person.

    Berkshire 2030

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    I’d like to speculate, why not?

     

    Intrinsic value at 8-10% growth rate should be near the million mark on the A share basis.

     

    Should the stock keep trading below IV until then, they would have retired 300k -400K A share equivalents. They have bought back approximately 50,000 A shares to date.

     

    Apple will be a wholly owned sub, ha.

     

    Thank you to Jeff for posting the link to the Reuters piece,

     

    Well, it has been possible - subject to market volume etc. - for some years now -because Berkshire has now held more than USD [120 B - 20 B] for a few years.

     

    - - - o 0 o - - -

     

    longinvestor,

     

    Naturally, it's OK to speculate away. However, what matters is what Mr. Buffett [or his successor] will do in the future [The difference between "saying" and "actually doing" - especially ref. the post by XerXes [, though giving credit to "Not a prediction but just to state that..."]].

     

    The Berkshire buyback discussion has been going here on CoBF for now years - nobody here on CoBF has cracked the code [as far as I understand things from reading CoBF].

     

    - - - o 0 o - - -

     

    In short : "Buffett hot air".

    Berkshire 2030

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Xerxes,

     

    What's your source for that particular USD 100 B number? [ I don't recall having read or heard of it it anywhere.]

     

    Facts :

     

    2017:

     

    Net cash flow from operating activities :  USD 45.728 B

    Net cash flow from investing activities  : USD -41.009 B

    Net cash flow from financing activities : USD -1.398 B

     

    2018 :

     

    Net cash flow from operating activities :  USD 37.400 B

    Net cash flow from investing activities  : USD -32.894 B

    Net cash flow from financing activities : USD 5.812 B

     

    2019 :

     

    Net cash flow from operating activities :  USD 38.687 B

    Net cash flow from investing activities  : USD -5.621 B

    Net cash flow from financing activities : USD 0.730 B

     

    2020H1 :

     

    Net cash flow from operating activities :  USD 17.466 B

    Net cash flow from investing activities  : USD -42.551 B

    Net cash flow from financing activities : USD -2.820 B

     

    - - - o 0 o - - -

     

    So, - in short -, if Mr. Buffett at some time said so, he was at that time misguiding the reader / listener, [because he was misleading the reader / listener  into mental projections & regressions] - He does not even know what he will do personally within the next twelve months!

     

     

    [- & btw, That does not rule out, that Mr. Buffett may have said something in the lines of what you posted.]

    what are you selling today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    LEVI (AH) and HII.

     

    HII was a starter position and the defense play I had the least confidence in.

     

    It's great move, Speculatius,

     

    Because HII is not a business, it's a scheme [with a ticker, though] to suck up funds from the US military budget to keep people meaningless employed.

    Can you buy Berkshire Hathaway shares directly from the company?

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Well, in the shareholder letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, included in the 2019 Berkshire Annual Report, I find the following on p. 14 [mentioned by gfp earlier here on CoBF]:

     

    Shareholders having at least $20 million in value of A or B shares and an inclination to sell shares to Berkshire may wish to have their broker contact Berkshire’s Mark Millard at 402-346-1400. We request that you phone Mark between 8:00-8:30 a.m. or 3:00-3:30 p.m. Central Time, calling only if you are ready to sell.

     

    So, I assume, no trading desk available at Berkshire, for buyers.

    Since Covid Lockdown, has this site's posting improved, worsened or meh?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    One of my favorite posters, Kraven, has been MIA in forever. Loved reading his posts, they were educational and humorous

     

    Anyone know how Kraven is doing? I was just thinking about him earlier today.  I was re-reading some quant stuff which led me to some antitrust legal canon concerning how Porter's Five Forces is basically bunk.  I had a similar personal realization with M. Gladwell's stuff.  I think my journey toward quant-esque investing has been probably kind of similar to his.

     

    I dont think I was here while he was an active poster, but we exchanged messages a little bit ago. He can chime in if he's still following but the gist was similar to what a lot of us have acknowledged the past few years. There is not a ton of unique investment related discussion here, and the investment related discussion that does take place, is often in the same trite names and largely an echo chamber...BRK, FFH, etc.

     

    The mere concept of anchoring to the past.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Israel is an interesting case right now as they have to backpedal and go back to various lockdown measures. It's a delicate balance.

    Herd immunity is likely not a significant issue here and at this point as they were able to contain the virus earlier. The key aspect appears to be related to stringency measures applied compared to others. Early on they ranked higher on the stringency index and, for the last few weeks, have ranked quite a bit lower on the index, relatively.

    The spread now is more into the younger cohorts, the "vulnerables" are probably better protected and medical care has improved (more because of a better combination of timely treatments than new treatments) and the death curve is less ominous but it's a delicate balance.

    The dynamics around this virus have a lot in common with fires in the wild.

     

    Cigarbutt,

     

    Ref. this quoted post of yours, and the chart in your last post [where Denmark is charted, too], right now [started at 15:00 hours local time] there is a Police Press Conference on the Danish News Channel called TV2 News.

     

    The whole ting reminds me about a doctor [i think he was american], stating some time ago, that he was fighting on two flanks :

     

    1. The virus

    2. The ignorance and the reckless stupidity of the population [, generally speaking].

     

    - - - o 0 o - - -

     

    Personally, I've lost all faith & hope in a definitive solution to this situation without a vaccine [, though I still hope I'm wrong].

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thank you for your last post, and thereby reminding me, Investor20,

     

    Here up in northern Europe [Denmark], we're now gradually entering what I call "the dark season" [which I simply hate!].

     

    I've now put purchase of Vitamin D on my TO-DO list for Monday. [i don't know if the Lady of the House and I are in a state of Vitamin D deficiency or not - No need to challenge the fate.]

     

    Disclosure : I've had two post signatures over the years here on CoBF. The first one, until I switched to the incumbent a few years ago, was : "Don't worry about getting old - It doesn't last that long." [Needless to say, that I'm happy for the switch back then today! [ ; - D]].

    Does Value Investing "still" work?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Trying to do 'value investing' purely by formula is pretty meaningless. ...

     

    ... Value investing still works, you just need to apply it differently. Change.

    Something a great many value investors have real difficulty with.

     

    SD

     

    I can't help quoting SharperDingaan here,

     

    Screening the markets for cheap stocks can't hurt, until one engage. From a long perspective [, all kinds of financial instruments omitted here], losses are created by buying, gains are created by holding or selling.

     

    It's not that hard to explain basically - a good deal harder to practice.

    Buffett/Berkshire - general news

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Last thing and I'll shut up.

     

    Watch excess reserves. At some point there is a good chance the Fed starts to CHARGE for excess reserves rather than paying interest on it. Makes too much sense if you have the beliefs Fed leaders have and your mission is what it is: full employment, modest inflation, etc. --and soon to be income equality. Paying interest could be deemed inappropriate or worse, a sin.

     

    Please keep them coming, BPCAP,

     

    We all live with the FSAs [more or less political independent], which make sure, that banks aren't charitable institutions, but banks.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Cigarbutt,

     

    I hope that you've "cooled down" - a bit - on a [hopefully] good night's sleep, while at the same time, you never "hit the roof" or "go ballistic" based on something posted here on CoBF [, to the contrary to me, - now and then].

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