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John Hjorth

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Posts posted by John Hjorth

    Buffett prepared for inflation with cash position of 32.5% of liquid portfolio!

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    On 6/15/2021 at 4:04 PM, thepupil said:

    I pulled Berkshire's annual for year ended 1998, when 10 yr treasuries yielded 6% and were very much positive / real. Berkshire was running very low duration back then too. Buffett has always had the 70's seared in his mind and seems to have been on the wrong side of the long duration trade for decades. I am not saying he is wrong. I think the cash / very ST FI makes sense in the context of the rest of his portfolio. But I don't think Berkshire is positioned any differently today than 5,10,20+ years ago. 

     

    So I think his strategy is consistent. Run an overcapitalized insurance company. Don't take (much, if any) duration/credit risk. Own equities. I don't think it has to do with the current inflationary trends of 2021. 

     

    thepupil,

     

    Great post! - & thank you for sharing your thoughts.

    When will the Fed stop QE and raise rates?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Thank you for sharing, @LearningMachine,

    Indeed, the basic question to ask is not what FED will do [subject to : We're in an inflation environment right now], but if we're in an inflationary environment, or not.

    Examples :

    Timber prices going beserk [covered by investment ideas actively discussed here on CoBF recently], &

    Steel prices going beserk [not covered here on CoBF?].

    - - - o 0 o - - -

    Pretty amazing to look at things right now, shying away & doing nothing, aware of being out of my own circle competence!

    - - - o 0 o - - - 

    How will all this play out going forward? -Personally, I've no idea [about future inflation, or not].

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

    John, i must say, i was a bit surprised to see you start a position on BAM. I always saw you as sticking with the devil-that-you know-like story (yr long term holding on BRK). That said, glad to see you joining BAM.

    Xerxes,

    I've been long BAM since the old format BAM website [and the quarterly reports] showed BAM AUM 130 B. [<- That is actually some time ago!] Never, ever sold one share, no matter what.

    Perhaps I should have the inner parts of my head examined meticously.

    Old Website or New

    in General Discussion

    Posted · Edited by John Hjorth

    Personally, I have to admit, that this migration from Simple Machines Forums to Invision Boards has been a personal challenge to me, too.

    To be totally honest, just after the migration, I considered myself here on CoBF deaf, blind & mute, combined with a good deal of directional confusion! [, absolutely without any capabilities to "handle"/"maneuver" the new board like the former board software platform].

    - - - o 0 o - - -

    Here, I'm not suggesting, that the posts in this topic are without merit [actually, to me, many of them are].

    The posts in this topic tells everything about what this is about : Simple Machine Forums has its roots in a time, when tablets and smartphones did not exist.

    But what I'm quite sure of is, that we are now past "the point of no return" [to the old board platform, ref. the topic title chosen by Greg in this topic].

    The point of no return was de facto when Sanjeev decided to put the new software platform into production environment.

    Personally, I speculate many challenges using the new board platform can be solved by communication among CoBF members [like we - as a community - do every day  - investment related], using the recipe : "There are no dumb questions, - only condecending answers".

    Buffett/Berkshire - general news

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted · Edited by John Hjorth

    Thank you & very well said, Greg,

    Personally, I think about this as a private investor saving and only holding cash & T-bills for the long term. It's doomed to failure in the sense of underperformance for the long term. In fact, Mr. Buffett has been a proponent of exactly this stance & point many times over the years.

    I think it was some two to three years ago that I was about have had enough of this continuous cash build and seriously considered to reduce my Berkshire position and go somewhere else with the proceeds.

    gfp has also earlier here on CoBF short time ago expressed, that the buybacks for sure appear price sensitive in some way. Mr. Buffett also verbally confirmed it under the AGM yesterday.

    Let's just hope it doesn't run up too much, so that the buybacks come to a halt.

    - - - o 0 o - - -

    Just a few additions here, hopefully without these additions being perceived as too much nitpicking by my fellow CoBF members :

    1. Mr. Buffett mentioned under the AGM yesterday that the minimum cash position of USD 20 B is under consideration for a raise [, which to me makes sense - float is still gradually increasing, and as of now [EOP 2021Q1] stands at USD 140 B].
    2. Calculation of "excess cash" ["dead money"] should actually include a deduction for cash at hand at BHE, because that cash is de facto earmarked for reinvestment in BHE [no dividends from BHE to the parent].
    3. I think it was at the 2017 AGM, that Mr. Buffett was asked a question about the cash build, where he expressed something along these lines [,so not an exact quote here] : "... there is no way we can sit here in front you and consider ourselves a success with more than USD 150 B in cash & cash equivalents on the balance sheet ...". Somehow, Mr. Buffett - so far - has lived up to that.

    Buffett/Berkshire - general news

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Thank you very much for sharing, KFS,

    I couldn't find it yesterday. I enjoyed listening to it this morning.

    After that, I went beserk on saxo.com, ordering three books about Berkshire by Lawrence Cunningham [As a Dane, my calculations appear to show that's a cheaper way to get those particular books, compared to ordering them on Amazon].

    Buffett/Berkshire - general news

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted · Edited by John Hjorth

    Thank you for sharing, ValueMaven,

    I listened to the podcast with Mr. Bloomstran interviewed today. I think it's good, however nothing new, compared to the Semper Augustus Client Letters. A bit to my surprise, I found out, that the interviewer - Stig Brodersen - is actually a Dane, located in Århus, Denmark.

    Proxy Vote Against Ajit From Calpers

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted · Edited by John Hjorth

    From the 2021 Proxy Statement, p. 8 :

    Factors considered by Mr. Buffett in setting the compensation for Mr. Abel, Mr. Jain and Mr. Hamburg are typically subjective, such as his perception of each of their performance and any changes in functional responsibility. Prior to the appointments of Mr. Abel and Mr. Jain as Berkshire Vice Chairmen in 2018, Mr. Buffett set the compensation for each of the CEOs of Berkshire’s significant operating businesses. However, since 2018, it has been the responsibility of Mr. Jain to set the compensation for the CEOs of Berkshire’s insurance businesses and the responsibility of Mr. Abel to set the compensation for the CEOs of Berkshire’s other businesses. Mr. Jain and Mr. Abel use the same general criteria as had been used by Mr. Buffett. Many different incentive arrangements are utilized, with their terms dependent on such elements as the economic potential or capital intensity of the business. The incentives can be large and are always tied to the operating results for which the CEO has authority and are related to measures over which the CEO has control.

    Welcome To The New Site!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Sanjeev,

    Again, is it OK with you to open/start a new topic in the General Discussion forum, alone for the purpose of testing and playing around with things on the new software platform? [With the purpose of us all, getting better quicker of handling the new platform, by sharing experiences?] [The alternative to me personally would be to open a temporary "sandbox" forum, to play/mess around with things here at CoBF, with the intent of constructive feedback to you].

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