John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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Not totally precise calculations yet, but around minus 3 percent for 2020 pre-tax & after fees etc. [, & took the poll accordingly].
I'm tempted to quote Greg and SharperDingaan from the "Happy New Year"-topic here :
Happy New Year to everyone. 2020 wasnt a bad year, it was just a life experience. What doesnt kill you, makes you stronger and wiser. Hopefully 2021 is the start of the Roaring 20s. Cheers
Happy New Year ..... and fortune and glory to all!
And the end to a rubbish 2020!!
SD
I "managed to produce" minus 32.9 percent in about a month [the period February 19th - March 23rd] while being actually mentally incapacitated, not fit & proper and ill, & doing nothing, mostly staying away from the keyboard and my monitors.
On that backdrop, there's no need to complain about minus 3 percent.
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Off topic :
Ended the year with a once-in-a-lifetime experience. R.I.P., Little Brother [Passed away December 31st early in the morning, & way too early].
So here, also a huge thank you to Broeb for picking up the baton on this yearly recurring topic.
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Merry Christmas to all my fellow CoBF members!
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.... I'm taking a 10 week vacation in South Florida for the first couple of months in 2021. So whatever comes, I'm good.
Greg,
With, or without, your decises at hand? [which to me seem to be the definition of a vacation, or perhaps not]?
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Copied from the Berkshire Hathaway forum :
Thanks to all for tolerating my idiotic idea.
At least the question brought up some interesting info & perspectives.
edit: Also thanks to Ander for starting the discussion to begin with.
Does anyone know if WEB & Chuck read CoBF?
How can they not?
edit: Someone should ask at the next (virtual) AGM.
How could they resist the politics section?
Jeff & Mike,
Thank you for making my Saturday morning! [ : - D ]
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Yes sir. I'm hesitant to disclose the utility I work for, not sure why. It's a Fortune 500 company that operates in the midwest.
JRM,
Please call me John [ : - ) ]. Actually, I'm right now in the eye of a storm related to that. [-And it'll end up being just great for my household! [The Ruler of the House & I - no kids at home , two old buggers, -you know].
I'll try to allocate some time to provide a post to this topic within the next few days, that [perhaps] makes some sense and creates some perspective, based on my own experiences, and a good deal of [Danish] home bias. [ : - ) ]
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JRM,
You're an american citizen, right? [i'm asking to give my reply in this topic context.]
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Anybody else but me taking notice of the difference between the ending of this Press Release :
... Contact Investor Relationsinvestorrelations@brka.com
402-978-5413
, and basically all others ending by :
... ContactMarc D. Hamburg
402-346-1400
?
I think that is a very interesting point John. Might have to do with the International/Japanese time difference...or could mean something more. I dont know.
Maybe written by someone in the Japanese office
Please don't take my questions here too seriously ... - I mean, what will be in that particular e-mail inbox will be something similar to this :
親愛なるバフェットさん、
最終的にどの会社を最初に購入しますか？
-And rest assured, I think too Mr. Hamburg is perhaps too old for this kind of stuff. [in the end : Not in any way our problem ... The advantage of being a global conglomerate investor!]
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Anybody else but me taking notice of the difference between the ending of this Press Release :
... Contact Investor Relationsinvestorrelations@brka.com
402-978-5413
, and basically all others ending by :
... ContactMarc D. Hamburg
402-346-1400
?
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I'm always amazed, when something like this happens on the CoBF Board Index, section Recent Posts.
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... There's no perfect answer here. Damned if you do, damned if you don't...
Certainly there is a perfect answer : Just don't! [You have to stay aware of, that the delusion is inside of own your head : "I want to change the world to a better place for all! [starting with my friends]" [,which is impossible for you to do]].
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Cigarbutt,
I think [i may be wrong about that, though] that you have no real perception of the value of your posts so far in this topic. So, please, keep them coming! [ : - ) ]
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Cigarbutt,
I, for one, have really-really appreciated your contributions to this topic here on CoBF. It's an extremely difficult topic for a layman like me. [Here : My intention was to post something about asking you to take care of your family & you ... [tell me/you about it! - because I know you already do!] :
Anyway:
I hope to read further posts from you in this topic. [Actually, it's my overall [not well defined, any] kind of perception, that you do not give in easily, but sure, enough can be enough].
Please take care [, however I know you don't need my advice]. I've enjoyed and grown intellectually by your posts in this topic so far.
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The total share of financials in the Berkshire portfolio has grown a lot in recent years, & untill the pandemic hit, to an outsized part of the total portfolio value. [We have to remember the AXP position here, which also carries a lot of deferred taxes]. When the world and the outlook suddenly changes to look extremely dim and uncertain, and one wants to reduce the total exposure to financials, perhaps for that reason alone, you have to pick, and something has get the boot out of the boat.
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A belated welcome to you here on CoBF, Arski! [ : - ) ]
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It should be noted for those that haven't seen this already that consolidated cash was widely mis-reported, by myself as well, as we hastily missed the line item for a $6.795 Billion payable for purchase of U.S. Treasury Bills on the balance sheet. Consolidated cash more like $138.9 Billion at quarter end.
hat tip to Christopher Bloomstran at Semper Agustus -
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1325130867635744770
Thanks, gfp,
-Posted on Twitter by the Uber-Berkshire-nitpicker-second-to-none! [ ; - ) ]
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Looking back through the last quarters, I see the following balance sheet items to "net" to get to "net cash" :
EOP 2020Q3 : USD 6.795 B,
EOP 2020Q2 : USD 1.114 B,
EOP 2020Q1 : USD 8.360 B,
EOP 2019 : USD 0 B [<- ?, not sure about that, John]
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Viking,
Thank you for elaborating on your views and overall perceptions. [ : - ) ]
Please pardon me for talking behind your back below the divider placed below this. -It's not exactly libel. [ ; - ) ]
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mattee,
I'm an old bugger [62, to be exact]. It's now more than 5 years ago, that I received my last salary. [in fact, the last payment wasn't really a salary, but a friggin' huge bonus for delivering during 1½ years on what was a "mission impossible"! [ ; - ) ]].
After getting some rest and restitution over a period of time, after burning my candle in both ends, I evolved a habit of reading CoBF "in another dimension", so to say :
1. Pick a CoBF member, whose posts seem to have some personal appeal to you,
2. Find a post by that particular CoBF member, and click on that particular CoBF members board handle [, on the left side on your screen], so that you get that particular CoBF members board profile,
3. Click on "Show posts" [to get that particular CoBF member's posts - since registration here on CoBF],
4. Start reading! - Oldest posts first! [-And remember and picture the market & macro environment at that particular point in time of each post - and in all other ways the historical context of each particular post.]
You'll be amazed of you get:
a. The best investment lecture you'll get anywhere,
b. Outsized investment returns, combined with modesty & no pulling of the bragging rights here on CoBF, &
c. Consistency in investment approach.
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Viking,
How much cash are you, yourself, sitting on as of now? [ : - ) ]
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Democrats celebrating their coup and super-spreading the virus is a case of killing someone who is attacking you?
I am confused...
Cardboard
I'm really looking forward to the new, politics free, CoBF.
Stay confused, you'd be impossible to recognize otherwise.
This is great CoBF talk!
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Joel's Berkshire compilation [top link] pp. 4099 - 4101 [of 4966] :
Berkshire 2017 AGM, afternoon session, Q2 :
2. Pressure to deploy Berkshire’s cash grows as it nears $100BWARREN BUFFETT: Jay?
JAY GELB: Berkshire’s cash and Treasury bill holdings are approaching $100 billion.
Warren, a year ago, you said Berkshire might increase its minimum valuation for share buybacks above 1.2 times book value if this occurred. What are your latest thoughts on raising the share repurchase threshold?
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, the — when the time comes — and it could come reasonably soon, even while I’m around — but [if] we really don’t think we can get the money out in a reasonable period of time into things we like, we have to reexamine then what we do with those funds that we don’t think can be deployed well.
And at that time, we’d make a decision. And it might include both, but it could be repurchases. It could be dividends.
There are different inferences that people draw from a dividend policy than from a repurchase policy that, in terms of expectations that you won’t cut a dividend and that sort of thing. So you have to factor that all in.
But if we really — if we felt that we had cash that was unlikely to be used — excess cash — in a reasonable period of time, and we thought repurchases at a price that was still attractive to continuing shareholders was feasible in a substantial sum, that could make a lot of sense.
At the moment, we’re still optimistic enough about deploying the capital that we wouldn’t be inclined to move to a price much closer where there’s only a narrow spread between an intrinsic value and the repurchase price. But at a point, the burden of proof is definitely on us.
I mean, that — I — the last thing we like to do is own something at a hundred times earnings where the earnings can’t grow.
I mean, we’re — as you point out, we’ve got almost a hundred billion — it’s $90-plus billion invested in a business, we’ll call it a business, where we’re paying almost a hundred times earnings. And it’s kind of a lousy business.
CHARLIE MUNGER: It’s more after after-tax earnings.WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. So, it — you know, we don’t like that. And we shouldn’t use your money that way for a long period of time. And, then, the question is, you know, are we going to be able to deploy it?
And I would say that history is on our side, but it’d be more fun if the phone would ring instead of just relying on history books.
And, you know, I am sure that sometime in the next 10 years — and it could be next week or it could be nine years from now — there will be markets in which we can do intelligent things on a big scale.
But it would be no fun if that happens to be nine years off. And I don’t think it will be, but just based on how humans behave and how governments behave and how the world behaves.
But like I say, at a point, the burden of proof really shifts to us, big-time. And there’s no way I can come back here three years from now and tell you that we hold 150 billion or so in cash or more, and we think we’re doing something brilliant by doing it.
Charlie?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I agree with you. The answer is maybe. (Laughter) [<-Please read this in the context of Mr. Gelb's question, John]
WARREN BUFFETT: He does have a tendency to elaborate. (Laughter)
The above socalled "hundred times earnings & "not growing" business" is now - 3½ years later - even louzier, and we're near 150 B ... Inflection point with regard to share buybacks?
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Thank you for posting, Pedro,
Also from a Danish perspective, this potential transaction is interesting. The Danish part of RSA is called Codan Forsikring [Danish for "Codan Insurance"]. The Danish P/C Insurance market is pretty much an oligopoly, consisting of Topdanmark, Tryg, Codan & If [if owned by Finnish Sampo]. I wonder if there would be regulatory hurdles related to the Danish part of this potential transaction with regard to competition.
Personally, I have owned small positions now for quite some years in Topdanmark, Tryg & Sampo.
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Thank you, Doc,
However, your post does not change, that I'm deeply & seriously worried about how this situation evolves locally, regional, national etc.
Does this "jump" [back, & mutated] from minks to homo sapiens imply, that this may [in worst case] mean another wave of SARS-CoV-2 [v2]? - A pandemic v2 as a layer on v1?, [- v2 timely delayed compared to v1?] [As if things weren't already screwed up, dearly?!]
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Yesterday, the Danish people got informed by the Danish government, that a mutant variety of SARS-CoV-2 has "jumped" [back again, to human beings] from minks to human beings [mutated] in the northern part of Jutland.
The Danish government has decided yesterday to cull all Danish mink stock [included non-infected breeding stock].
I'm [as a layman] in no way sure, that I understand the implications of this decision. [My immediate thought is that this is a wrong decision.]
What do you think, & why?
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Cardboard now on my ignore list ... [again!]
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BG2008,
I suppose your issue at hand is about a missing LEI code. Wikipedia : Legal Entity Identifier.
I'm assuming here that your account at Interactive Brokers is a "professional" account [account for some kind of legal entity, in the Wikipedia article described as accounts for "... non-individual participants in the financial markets ..."]. My assumption may be wrong though.
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CBDC has been in 'test' for some time (eKrone), and has been very successful ....
SD
Sharperdigaan,
What's your source for posting this?
favorite stock for 2021
in General Discussion
Posted
Agreed,
Simplest way to un-elaborate things. Thank you.