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John Hjorth

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Posts posted by John Hjorth

  1. RNA vaccines  are new technology and haven't been rigorously tried and tested yet. If the question is whether there are vaccines against other RNA viruses, yes there are a bunch: influenza, Ebola, polio, measles, mumps. rubella, rotavirus, off the top of my head. SARS vaccine research was terminated because there was no longer an epidemic but there likely would have been a vaccine given enough time and trial and error. Most vaccine experts think that a vaccine is very plausible here.

     

    One thing that we have going for it is that there are a lot of test subjects to run the clinical trials in large numbers. That was one of the issues with SARS - we run out of test subjects due the SARS being ringfenced if I recall correctly. We don’t have the same issue here. :o

     

    I hear you, Spekulatius,

     

    It was a few day ago, I found out that the holy-go-moly daily public COVID-19 reporting here in Denmark "slacked" by going from daily reporting to weekly reporting on some stats, and I was actually stunned by that, until I realized that "10% [or something like that] of some "small number"" shouldn't in any way leave any effect on how your personal judgement about this evolves over time locally".

     

    Nothing to be stunned about, actually. - Actually, It's more like some kind of privilege in the random ovarial lottery - until you get it right, - inside your head.

  2. Does this count?

     

    https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/sex-addict-claims-hot-female-gamers-caused-him-to-injure-penis/

     

     

    Estavillo alleges in the transcript he even once ejaculated on his PC monitor, which caused his gaming system to short-circuit and resulted in a fire that temporarily caused his apartment to black out.

     

    I'd say it does.  Since the Subject of this topic says "Keep em PC" and this involves a PC.

     

    +1

     

    Gents, you crack me up!

     

    Sperm is a very potent part of your body, which you have to stay in full control of. Dropping it here, there & everywhere can be really expensive.

  3. Today, I've read some pieces "out there" today about Mr. Trump basically has been sweeping the market for available Remdevisir for months going forward, based on production capacity.

     

    Example : Here.

     

    For Danes, no sweat. We've already got it, in some volume - for free! - from Gilead. Number of persons in ICUs as of the latest reporting : 10.

  4. ... So as you can see, breakfast $10-15 covers a family of 4 for a week. Lunch you're running $10 a day, and dinner probably $10 a day as well. Insane considering before kids I would regularly spend $50 a meal, and often $100 for dinner.

     

    Greg,

     

    As you perhaps already know, I'm pretty observant to facts posted here on CoBF, and by all means much-much more observant how those so-called facts are processed and handled. So, to me, you are here just such a low-life cheat fiddling with your numbers  that you post here on CoBF, dividing by four, instead of dividing by four-and-something! [ : - D]

     

    I hope everything is evolving well over time for your part, and yours! Take care [ : - ) ]

     

    [The rest that we're talking about here on CoBF is "just money" [and all that].]

     

    In short - now that I actually think about it - there is no capital gain comparable to become a parent again! [ : - ) ]

  5. Today it seems that the EU is discussing refusing entry to travelers from the U.S.

     

    Smart move. They ate their vegetables, now they move onto dessert. USA? Stuck in futile "isolate seniors/vulnerables" until/if a vaccine ever emerges. Oh, and economy takes on water over longer term now even without any more lockdowns.

     

    "Isolate seniors strategy" a.k.a. prepare for long term hits to tourism, entertainment, no spending by those who have money to spend (seniors/retirees), less spending even by young folks who also really don't want covid themselves, restaurant/hotel volume hits, etc etc.

     

    Oh, and good luck completely sealing off seniors from the rest of the population. Maybe we can pull some seniors out of retirement to run the nursing homes...

     

    The EU will not be alone in doing this. Canada keeps extending severe border restrictions with US and it is hard to see why they would be lifted with the spike in US cases. The rest of the world will likely continue shutting out the US. I am sure this fits with Trump’s re-election strategy... all part of the well thought out plan :-) ‘stable genius’ that he is.

     

    Viking, Dalal.Holdings & cwericb,

     

    Naturally, this is somewhat saturated of political tactics. But there is also some logic in some places of this. Going anecdotal and local, here in Denmark the travel restrictions for persons crossing the Danish border has been made dynamic, so that if a country has a number of confirmed cases per x citizen measured as an average over a given time span over a preset treshold, it considered a "bad country", and citizens from that particular country are not welcome here, and Danes aren't allowed to travel to that particular country. So the management of "open ["good"] countries" and "closed ["bad"] countries" has been made quite mechanical and dynamic.

     

    - - - o 0 o - - -

     

    As a European CoBF member I also want to express my sincere concerns to my fellow US board members about how this calamity evolves over time in USA. The mental load on you must be enormous while trying live the daily life as well as possible. I hope that you take care of those near and dear to you, and that you have not had casualties in your personal sphere. Please hang in there. The enemy is genetically coded not to show signs of fatigue. There is no such thing as defeat or rising the white flag. We all have to ride this out.

  6. Orthopa was on the money months ago. For a while the message board DR's thought they knew better, but he turned out to be spot on.

     

    Speaking as one of Orhopa's smuggest critics, 100,000 deaths and mass graves were proof enough for me that he was wrong.

     

    Apparently to believe the "widespread/millions infected in January" thesis, you'd have to believe hundreds of thousands died back then and doctors had no idea what it was and put something else on the death certificate...Also none of those millions of people made it to FL, AZ, TX, OK, etc until now in June...

     

    Also, love the strawman attempt--to accuse those like us who saying it most certainly was not widespread in U.S. January as if we were saying it was not at all here in U.S. in January--we clearly stated it was here in Jan, particularly in WA state (even citing an infectious disease doctor in Seattle who was ignored back in January by Federal gov't/FDA). 

     

    But yeah, either some people have memory problems or just aim to mislead about what was argued in the past. *Shrugs*

     

    Please can't we let this line of discussion go here? Is it constructive? [To me, no.] Is it fruitful [from a post mortem perspective] [for us, as investors]? [To me, no.]

  7. Short time ago, mobility data from Google & Apple was mentioned by a fellow board board member in this topic [right now, I can't find it, I think it was in a post by Investor20].

     

    Have we discussed Corona apps?

     

    Two days ago [on June 18th 2020] the Danish Corona app called smitte|stop was released and made available for the Danish population. ["Smitte stop" in Danish translated to English becomes "Infection stop".]

     

    It runs on a decentralized data structure based a data structures made available by Google and Apple, based on use of Bluetouth technology, combined with the use of the Danish personal digital ID [called Nem-ID], securing user anonymity while creating warnings if you have been close to an infected person retroactively calculated by an underlying algorithm serverside without permanent centralized data storage.

     

    Personally, I consider this a great initiative to track and trace chains of transfer. It will certainly be worthwhile to follow how this initiative will play out and contribute over time. [it may perhaps not work out as hoped for and expected, but at least it has then been tried - to me, every initiative matters.]

     

    - - - o 0 o - - -

     

    I would really appreciate to "hear" [read] a bit here about how it is with such similar initiatives from fellow board members in other places & countries.[/right]

  8. Here in Denmark, yesterday the treatment of CV patients with severe cases changed to be a combination of Remdevesir and Dexamethason. Yes, like Spekulatius mentioned, even a small step forward in the right direction is exactly that : A step forward.

     

    Edit :

     

    Here are the daily numbers for Denmark. Those actual numbers surpass my wildest dreams - in a positive way - from just about a month ago.

  9. I have dealt with late teen suicides, thankfully none in my family, but always a tragedy.  as best I can tell, many of these kids come to what they believe is a "no way out" position, they have done something that turns out bad and they develop huge shame and guilt, and feel they cant talk to no one, and even worse, they cant talk to the people they would normally be able to talk to (parents), and so they do an act that cannot be retrieved.  I am not discussing teens with drugs addictions or mental health issues, they are a whole other problem, but I am talking about the healthy lovable and sometimes frustrating teen in your house.  I have come to believe that you need to "premortem" teenagers, tell them in advance that NOTHING is not redeemable, that there is no no way out position or end point.  the kids will look you in the eye and wonder what is wrong with you, but just tell them this nonetheless and that you love them.

     

    Thank you for sharing, cherzeca,

     

    Your post is actually a heartbreaking read, to me. Personally, I'm pretty sure that you're rooted in good & decent soil.

  10. These purchases have taken place in Mr. Watsa's personal account, right? Does anyone here on CoBF know, if the controlling shareholding in FFH is still in that legal entity called Sixty Two Company [or something like that] ?

     

     

    Edit: Fixed typo.

  11. ... I think a whole host of factors are at play. But the speed of the decline in New York City vis-a-vis other cities (that have also instituted lockdowns and changed their behaviors) suggests that the relatively higher levels of infection already in place have a strong deterence on the virus's transmissibility. ...

     

    Personally, for me, there is no way for me to pursue this line of thinking. Personally, I consider it a line of "sleeping pillow" thinking. I hope my quoting is not considered unfair.

  12. I am genuinely trying to compile a list of bad actors that I can steer clear of when I invest.  I have found that I don't really want to be invested in a company if I have a chance of getting screwed even if it is at a very deep discount to intrinsic value.

     

    BG2008,

     

    Thank you, the list is actually appreciated for my personal part to consider, but how do you consider your "on the banking side" post relevant today from an investment perspective? [To me, it has no actual relevance at all].

  13. While I think there is a risk that the protests contribute to spread of COVID-19, there are mitigating factors:

    1) a lot of protestors tried some measures of social distancing  and wore masks

    2) The protests were outside, which reduces risk substantially (of course we do not know what emote stores do before and after)

    3) Most protesters as well as front line police are younger. Not only are the less likely to get sick, they are lesser likely to spread COVID asymptomatic ( the latter is my own conclusion).

     

    We likely erred on restricting outdoors activities too much. I don’t think there is much reason to close beaches or parks, assuming the people going there behave reasonable. It is likely even opening schools is lower risk than thought, based on observations from countries in Europe which have reopened schools recently.

     

    High risk areas are badly ventilated high density indoor spaces like bars, some restaurants, offices, churches, sport venues night clubs, and business that require close customer contacts like nail salons, hairdressers etc.

    There was at one point a belief that the sickest were shedding the most virus, but now there have been study results indicating that viral shedding is highest when pre-symptomatic, if that is true, you may be a little too optimistic

    Another issue is that shouting has been estimated to shed 1000x as much virus as simply breathing. Think of the indoor choir practice example that is often cited. I saw many examples of a someone without a face covering screaming right in someone else face from less than three feet.. I hope they weren't infected because that's got to be extremely high risk.

     

    Yes, the highest  Viral shedding is asymptomatic shortly before shortly symptoms. My Thinking based on what I can stitch together though is that people they never show symptoms will never show high viral shedding at any time. Which makes sense if you think about it they people who never show symptoms likely als ways keep the virus in check with their immune system.

     

    At least that’s a plausible explanation why the largely asymptomatic kids never seem to create much transmission to more susceptible adults in schools. If transmission from kids to adults in a school setting were common , it would already have shown up as infection clusters in Denmark and Germany, but so far that it not the case.

     

    The stuff they doesn’t happen is often as insightful than the stuff they is happening. When we think for example about the much commented upon spring break parties in Florida a while - well we never heard much about infection clusters that could be traced back to these events. It’s also a fact that Florida did much better than many expected in this epidemic.

    The likely factors that helped were that the spring break parties occurred mostly outdoors and involved mostly younger folks.

     

    Invert this and put a bunch of older folks in a badly ventilated (I assume) confined place, which we call assisted living or nursing home and we very much know what happens.

     

    All the above is not a sure fact, more of a hypothesis, but it  matches the observations so far. If we know about the do’s and the Don’ts we can open up the economy smartly with reasonably low risk.

     

    This is razor sharp analysis & considerations in a chaos of data, Spekulatius,

     

    Thank you. Somehow, I speculate, that the Danish Health Authority already had [loosely] figured that out here. At least the reopening here started with the youth now about four weeks ago, and the national numbers I'm studying every day does not appear to be affected by this action, now since about four weeks ago.

  14. <Lots of stuff omitted here, to avoid dense quoting, John>

     

    I wish I had listened to myself.  :-\

     

    Please do not come down too hard on yourself, Sharad,

     

    Personally, I'm happy just to see you around here on CoBF again.

  15. Cigarbutt,

     

    Thank you for your contributions to this topic over time. As an almost total ignorant person in this scientific space it's to me a pleasure and a privilege to read your stuff on the matter at hand.

     

    Perhaps my personal opinion about the Swedish Corona approach did shine through in my last post, however I tried to phrase it as carefully as I could, taking my own ignorance into consideration.

     

    Today I took the time to actually read the Danish Doctor's Pledge, also ending reading about the WMA Declaration of Geneva, the Hippocratic Corpus & the Hippocratic Oath.

     

    Based only on common sense - and with my personal ignorance as basis - I was surprised to see, that just by reading the Danish Doctors Pledge literally and straight out, the application of the Swedish Corona strategy here in Denmark would not be in non-compliance with the Danish Doctors Pledge. [The Danish Doctors Pledge does not mention potential patients, only "patients" [, which I understand as "actual patients"].

     

    - - - o 0 o - - -

     

    So based on my limited understanding of World Wide ethics among health care professionals I dare ask for some comments and considerations from you - and certainly comments and considerations from the other doctors who have been active in the discussions in this topic are most welcome - on the ethical dimensions of the Swedish Corona strategy.

     

    Perhaps needless to post it, but as a layman, I consider it problematic, ref. "Do not do any harm." I sincerely hope this post does not appear as rubbish among the doctors here on CoBF.

  16. Jyllandsposten [June 3rd 2020] : Sweden's state epidemiologist: We should have done more against corona.

     

    [original source : Ritzau, ref. lower part of the article.]

     

    - - - o 0 o - - -

     

    Personally, I'm not sure about what to think about this. Is this just rear mirror wiewing [, that is basically useless, unless used for swift changes of prior decisions made as the situation elvolves over time], or is this a public admittal that the Swedish Corona approach has failed [, where the only logical action for Mr. Tegnell - at least to me - would be to turn in his resignation] ?

  17. The spread is now in Brazil and Russia. Even in India, despite an early lockdown, cases are spreading and they are considering opening up. Bill Gates was despondent about the chances of emerging markets to contain the virus. Seems he was right again.

     

    Yes samwise,

     

    The daily WHO sit reports are to me heartbreaking reads [even taking into consideration that they are the aggregations/consolidations/sums of local reports, of which some may be deemed unreliable]. To me, they read like we haven't seen the worst yet globally.

  18. Where's Exxon? I could have sworn he said Exxon on the call, even mentioned what the dividend was yielding at the time (I think 10%).

     

    Personally, I hear you, Cevian,

     

    Also, personally, I'm [also] puzzled by this, & need to go back to listen to the conference call.

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