John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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...The 99% of you who don’t care about this stuff should STOP READING NOW...
wabuffo,
This is not a nice line of posting, viewed from a fellow CoBF member perspective. Appreciated anyway for my part - in these weird times - personally, I think every investor pay a lot of attention to these issues [i may be wrong about that though].
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and thinking.
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This is a coronavirus thread. Not investment thread. ...
Now who defined this topic [and had the authority to so] this particular way?
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The A share volumes are spiking in March.
I think it can’t be buffett cuz he will only do x% of the daily volume.
And A is trading at a premium than B.
So it seems someone is buying, perhaps trying to gain controls?
I wonder if sleepydragon's basis for reasoning is correct here? -I mean does selling BRK.A shares [or BRK.B shares for that matter] calling Mr. Millard and doing a privately negotiated deal count as a part of daily volume for the date of the deal?, ref. Berkshire 2019 Annual report, p. 14 :
... Shareholders having at least $20 million in value of A or B shares and an inclination to sell shares to Berkshire may wish to have their broker contact Berkshire’s Mark Millard at 402-346-1400. We request that you phone Mark between 8:00-8:30 a.m. or 3:00-3:30 p.m. Central Time, calling only if you are ready to sell. ... -
Understood on Gates Foundation being gifted B shares. I knew that. But to circle back, wouldn’t Gates Foundation, under mandate to dispose of shares in 12 years, naturally give BRK first right of refusal on the shares gifted by Mr. Buffett ?
My point is 30% of the entire firm will be sold 12 years postmortem. That’s a certainty. So we already know the volume will be there - just hoping the price is right. And wouldn’t Mr. Buffett anticipate this and provide a rough plan to execute. I always have thought about this - interesting. Hope he loves to 100!
It's an interesting discussion, thank you to all contributers!,
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has the option to call Berkshire HQ at the phone number in the stated time frame [, ref. one of gfp's latest posts in this topic], or sell the B shares in the market.
It's not that complicated.
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dwy000,
I will! [ : - ) ] Here is a tweet by Mr. Bloomstran containing a recommendation of the book. Please also note the nice words by Mr. Russo, Mr. Pabrai, Mr. Gabelli & Mr. Sykes! [ : - ) ]
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Now that Jurgis also posted that the book is written by a CoBF member I've become even more curious!
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I ordered this book on March 2nd 2021. I look forward to it.
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... FYI: I received a free early version of this book. ...
LongHaul,
To me, you're a lucky guy! I preordered this book on March 2nd 2021 via saxo.com. I can't wait to lay my hands on it!
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That would be a "negative price" per year of [uSD 19,000,000 minus USD 99,000 [give or take, perhaps he would be "inheriting" Mr. Buffetts security cost refunds]] = USD 18,901,000 per year, to fill Mr. Buffett's shoes, ref. the 2020 proxy.
That got to be some damn good shoes! -Imagine if Mr. Abel's shoe size is bigger than Mr. Buffett's!
I would venture that the $19m per year has almost no marginal utility for Greg. Nor for Jain for that matter.
It's relatively rare that people give up their compensation, even when it has little or no marginal utility for them.
For WEB, taking a very low salary probably saved the firm enough on compensation for the employees (and especially subsidiary CEOs) that at his ownership share he comes out ahead. That won't be the case for the successor, and I'd expect the pay package to reflect that reality.
Please slap a capitalization factor - perhaps based on life expectancy - on yearly USD 18,901,000 after tax [, perhaps also adjusted for inflation, ref. Mr. Buffett's salary].
None of us here on CoBF got to where we are today by not counting the coins, with the aim to get the notes.
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That would be a "negative price" per year of [uSD 19,000,000 minus USD 99,000 [give or take, perhaps he would be "inheriting" Mr. Buffetts security cost refunds]] = USD 18,901,000 per year, to fill Mr. Buffett's shoes, ref. the 2020 proxy.
That got to be some damn good shoes! -Imagine if Mr. Abel's shoe size is bigger than Mr. Buffett's!
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Deeply speculative post here :
Perhaps Astrid Menks isen't ageing as well as Mr. Buffett. On my retina I have a photo from a few years ago, Mr. Buffett helping his wife into or out of a car.
Disclosure : I really hate "The Snowball", & haven't finished reading it, ... perhaps one day I'll just trade it second hand [-Likely the only Buffett related book, I'll never finish reading].
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I would not want dividends from Brk. Hold it in the taxable account. I'm sure I'm not the only one. ...
no_free_lunch,
It's called "stashing deferred taxes on deferred taxes". At least for me, so far, I has worked out good.
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I read this section and could not help but think of Fairfax...
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(From page 4): Charlie and I want our conglomerate to own all or part of a diverse group of businesses with good economic characteristics and good managers. Whether Berkshire controls these businesses, however, is unimportant to us.
It took me a while to wise up. But Charlie – and also my 20-year struggle with the textile operation I inherited at Berkshire – finally convinced me that owning a non-controlling portion of a wonderful business is more profitable, more enjoyable and far less work than struggling with 100% of a marginal enterprise.
For those reasons, our conglomerate will remain a collection of controlled and non-controlled businesses. Charlie and I will simply deploy your capital into whatever we believe makes the most sense, based on a company’s durable competitive strengths, the capabilities and character of its management, and price.
If that strategy requires little or no effort on our part, so much the better. In contrast to the scoring system utilized in diving competitions, you are awarded no points in business endeavors for “degree of difficulty.” Furthermore, as Ronald Reagan cautioned: “It’s said that hard work never killed anyone, but I say why take the chance?”
As in Prem needs a Charlie?
Viking & hasilp,
Charlie is already "taken", and there is nobody out there like Charlie!. You just made my day! [ ; -D ]
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After 3Q
~7% annualized, not bad at all.
the 2nd quarter of over 6% annualized share reduction + continuation in the 1st quarter shows that Berkshire is increasingly comfortable with a ~100% payou ration and capping the growth of excess capital (if the stock price is sufficiently cheap).
think we knew this already, but it's always good to get confirmation. Likewise, we could comp BNSF to UNP and get a number of $120B or whatever, but it's also great to see that "pretty much a toss up" language from the GOAT.
I think it would be totally rational to think about a 7% run rate distribution (still aiming for 10%+ returns on retained earnings, so you will still grow if you're achieving that...and shrink of not). Buybacks if stock is cheap/fair, special dividend if not. May provide a useful template to set up for the Greg/successor and would work to allow Gates foundation to get steady funding.
To me, a dividend while Mr. Buffett still being alive [perhaps not CEO and chairman at the time of af such decision] would actually be a [negative] Black Swan event. I'm not willing to bet anything on it though.
A dividend would dilute Mr. Buffett's pledges to the foundations.
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I am admittedly speculating here, but we are all just a bunch of fanboys girls, fan-people offering up observations and ideas:
A.) near the end of his letter he talks a fair amount about the types of shareholders that BRK has and he significantly prefers the Partners/Long Term shareholder owners, and he chuckles at the short term index/robo trade shareholders.
B.) Couple that with the Significant share repurchase.
C.) AND- Q.E.D. WEB and Charlie are happier to buy out partners at an increasing pace now who are not long term shareholders. Certainly there is the compounding there, but there is WEB psychology implied.
Seems like more to come in the future at these present prices.
Thoughts?
I think that is accurate. I believe he’s just trying to be transparent and fair about it. Let his long term partners/investors know that he’s not trying to take advantage of them - “ it’s worth more than what it trades for” “ now may not be the time to sell.” Pretty sure I’ve read him talk about buybacks and considering the partners you are buying back from - or I’m just making it up. Eg If there were just 10 investors/partners he wouldn’t try and buyback shares on the cheap from one of them them if they were either down and out or if prices were advantageous to him.
I agree with nicke & hasilp here,
Actually, I was chuckling while reading that particular part, too. However I think thare are shades and several dimensions in what has been done in the last few years. I think of it as a two step-process [perhaps there may be more steps than I imagine here]. To me, it's a fact there has been a major shift in the Berkshire portfolio composition within the last few years away from financials in general, while share buybacks would increase exposure to financials for the individual shareholder, thereby indicating a two step-process.
This is [naturally] also speculative thoughts for my part.
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You're welcome, Buckeye,
-So friggin' many numbers each quarter! [ ;-D ]
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Buckeye,
Yes, as gfp, just "said", then you compare with the information in note 22, p. K-107 about shares oustanding YE2020, calculate the difference, and multiply with estimated average market price for the A and the B in the period beginning of the year to mid February, which will get you in the area which gfp stated.
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Well, I don’t think these purchases are big mistakes, like I did with his airline purchases and selling of WFC. I just think BRK will return more to me as an investor than VZ or CVX could possibly. That is why I have 80% of my portfolio in BRKB.
Mike,
I like your take on this. To me, it's that plain simple. Based on the VZ and CVX additions, I hope to see some serious & material addition to BRK soon!
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ValueMaven,
Any day now, I think.
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... I don't see him entering the military complex through Boeing, has he ever invested in something with a defence component?
kab60,
Personally, I'm not aware of any. And [perhaps] like you, I do not consider it a coincidence.
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... and pardon for my ignorance in a world full of experts.
My late mother taught me in a very special [, & here, undisclosed] way never to steal. Opportunistic, I'm here making an exception.
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I would like to add Writser's and Gilmour's [alwaysinvert's] exchange in the Treasure ASA topic some days ago! ["General Norwegian-bashing" & "darn discount won't close"!] [ : - D]. [i hope Per [CoBF member perulv] does not take it too seriously.]
Jeff's [DooDiligence's] new signature isen't all that shappy either! [ : - D ]
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... So let's stop hashing discussions around health officials taking "precautions" during a pandemic. It's a war...these measures would not even be debated if we had this many deaths by a bio-terrorism attack from another country or group. Everybody would be on the same side! Cheers!
[Friggin'] this!
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Documentary on Putin and his wealth:
So appalling! How on Earth would Mr. Putin expect to hold this new "Versailles" at the Black Sea a secret, when there are sattelites everywhere around the planet and drones available for [almost] everybody?
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massive lockdowns in China. One guy just eat his pet because he wasn't allowed to go out to get food for four days.
Muscleman,
Source, please.
I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
in General Discussion
Posted
It's now a bit more than 8 years ago [and, today, +2 days!] that I registered and logged in here at CoBF for the first time. -Paying that absolutely nominal fee in CAD has been the best investment I've ever made! [-It's up to yourself to create your return on invested capital based on your CoBF membership! - WYSIWYG! ->WYGIWYG!].
Today, I still remember eagerly reading the board during the first three years or so of my membership, without posting much - It's an investment Encyclopedia! - With Real Time sentiment built in! [About 100 posts [low quality, for sure & and as a given] within the first 3 years]. - I was "sucking in" & learning!
I also remember a period, where I was soo tired steering & "getting around" here on CoBF, there were so many bugs - bugging me! - that I considered - simply put - to let the "whole thing" go. Disclosure : I'm more of a phpBB guy. I was actually one the five translators of the Open Source phpBB Olympus project to Danish, who never got to meet IRL.
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Now back to the joke:
During my "hazzle time" I found out an easier way to read the board. I've set up CoBF, so that in each topic I get the latest post first.
So, the real joke here is me, & my line of thinking - at that time.
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-Posted like some break clown in a circus. -Rest assured that I appreciate any input from any of my fellew CoBF members!
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Edit 1:
Ohh, I missed out on the real joke [what a posting disaster!]:
Attached is a screen shot from a post made by Mike [Cubsfan] today ... - These "^" signs still confuse me after so many years! Cigarbutt & Spekulatius use them too! [i suppose that I'm just getting old...]