Spekulatius

We have Big government now: I am surprised we don’t have a central planning office and & 5 year plans yet.

Ge is not a rare earth but mostly produced in China (93% by some sources). Just got a shocker that our exiting supplier canceled our contracts and won’t deliver. I could point to some supplier who could deliver but paying through the nose. Prices are up 3 x from what they used to be just a short while ago. Some online sources (tradingeconomics )mentioned prices quoted in Yuan but you can’t buy from Chinese sources, so the prices have decoupled from the Chinese market. Ouch. This price chart is about correct:

How about that Vivendi issue where Bolore may be required to make an offer?

Check out @Saluki post upthread. It is probably a microcosm what is happening.

It’s hard to pinpoint mental decline when there was never much mental capacity to begin with and verbally communication is at the level of a 12 year old.

Starter in BZU (Buzzi) and ACN Buzzi announced lower earnings today due to slow US business. VN got Cramered but there is probably something else going on.

My point is, you can’t have one (military shipbuilding ) without the other (commercial), it is not very economical . We tried and that’s why we are in the current situation. If you shield an industry from competition , you get exactly what we have - a bunch of shipyards that build a ship every 4 years or so and which costs a fortune. Italy‘s Fincantieri for example builds ferries, cruise ships as well as naval vessels. They allegedly have some very good ships that ever the Navy is interested in, but undoubtedly they will probably not get an order for political reasons, even in a JV structure. https://www.fincantieri.com/en/products-and-services/naval-vessels/

It is true but not as much. Women are much more normative than men.

Some crypto bro‘s are more conservative than others.

Rebuilding Shipbuilding is tough because the commercial shipbuilding capacity in the uS is almost zero as the remaining shipbuilding is mostly connected to niches that are protected from competition (military and Jones Act ships). So there is no industrial base to left for building ships. Worse the tariff ones steel, Aluminum etc raise the cost and makes it even harder to compete. I think a pragmatic approach would be to work with allies with large commercial shipbuilding operations to rebuild capacity. This would be Korea, Japan and to a lesser extent Italy (Fincantieri) It is much easier to build upon an existing competitive commercial base than to build it from scratch or upon a rotten base like HII ancient union controlled shipyards. I don’t think what I and other see as the rational solution is what’s going to happen. I bought and quickly sold HII on the thinking that the narrative around shipbuilding would emerge and made a quick 40% out of it. I have no intention to hang around for the hard part though.

Not a fake story as it’s in German media also. The AFD tries to silence and now expel Tim Schramm who volunteered from Ukraine. The Russian loving AFD does not like what he is saying about the war in Ukraine. https://tvpworld.com/88030843/germanys-afd-moves-to-oust-politician-who-fought-for-ukraine

Here is a good one: https://mrmarketmiscalculates.substack.com/p/monthly-recap-10-103?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Hunting ground for Europoor small/mid cap investors. Some familiar names in that list:

The intend is to create a repository of free substack articles on investment related topics here. Almost anything goes.

The Republican party is owned just like the Democrats. Doesn’t make a difference if you like it or not - everyone is in the same boat. Here is to Allegiance to Trump:

ADBE has more terminal risk than other SAAS plays. I think WDAY can benefit from AI while ADBE may have to reinvent themselves . FIGMA being valued as if they disrupted ADBE already makes not much sense to me either. I own just a few shares in WDAY but I think it’s getting interesting.

What women want.. is what other women want. I posted about this PsycHacks channel before and there is some really good content on it. I also recommended it to my son, likely in vain. I did tell him, that if a girl he dates ever tells him to meet her (girl) friends, it’s going to be test and if he fails, he is going to get the boot.

Dept Q is a great Brit Crime Show on Netflix : https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/dept_q

This does not look like rational decision making:

5.6x EV/revenues. The SBC is high, if you take it out, it becomes much cheaper. For comparison the software rollup ROP trades at 8x EV/ revenues with less organic growth even on a per share metric (to compensate for dilution). No, I am not claiming that WDAY is cheap but yo dot think you need to look at more metrics.

They have a good product starting with HCM and moving into adjacent field like expense management, learning systems. they also have some finance and supply chain software that keep plugging away with but hasn’t quite reached critical massing seems. That said, their SBC is too high for a company their size. I do think it is has become too cheap.

@Saluki If the job does not require relocation, I would take it. Whats there not to like? You get a signup bonuses and Uncle Sam provides you with free on the job training on emigration law for the next 6-12 month at least. Once you are past the period where you need to pay back the signup bonus re- evaluate if you really want to do this job or not. If not get on medical leave or just do the bare minimum and I think they will give you another buyout. Just claim you piece of the big beautiful spending bill because someone else will do it otherwise.

Both payments large processors Paychex and ADP have their own reports which tend to be less noisy but don’t capture new/ smaller business. The ADP report from last month was already some what weak but generally ignored: https://mediacenter.adp.com/2025-07-02-ADP-National-Employment-Report-Private-Sector-Employment-Shed-33,000-Jobs-in-June-Annual-Pay-was-Up-4-4

Interesting thread about BLS revisions:

Lots to unpack here. China has been dominating the Physics Olympics for decades now: https://aas.org/posts/news/2025/07/us-physics-team-wins-international-olympiad 2025 US Physics Team are: Agastya Goel Allen Li Joshua Wang Feodor Yevtushenko Brian Zhang

They publish the methodology for the job data. The data is based on surveys to get leading indicators. Those surveys tend to have issues. The Paycheck jobs data is accurate but incomplete (does not capture all the business ) and is also a bit lagging: https://www.paychex.com/employment-watch/#!/