Spekulatius

Just put them all on PPP and preserve the resource for future generations. It’s cheaper.

How many of these parents take the summer off when their kids don't have school? Not many take the entire summer of, but most do some vacation. Which won’t happen this year. Also most activities like summer camps /soccer won’t happen. Staying with friends/family/in-laws won’t happen. My sons does now school via Zoom. I don’t think this works LT either, but this probably depends on the kid. He now need to organize himself to make sure he doesn’t miss any classes if none of us is at home, which sometimes fails. My wife usually works only half time as a Nurse but since this virus popped up in our area too, she works more hours than I do.

Today, yes, I think the risk is acceptable, based on general reports of curve flattening and general lack of overwhelmed local ERs and ICUs. The "re-opening" of local economies should be conditional on: 1. universal mask usage 2. maintaining 6-ft social distancing 3. no large crowds This can allow many businesses, restaurants, maybe some schools to re-open. The decision regarding timing, pace, and extent of re-opening will be left to state governors and local authorities, who can fine-tune the above conditions, based on local factors. If a surge of serious cases start to show up in ERs and ICUs, they'll have to clamp down again. The federal government level can mostly give permission to states and localities to open up around April 30 (maybe even before), when they feel ready. They can veto crazy decisions that might happen in some regional southern areas, such as large church services, movie theaters, sports arenas. As you say, there is no good medical treatment/vaccine, and testing has been disappointing. (Whenever you rush out with new tests for a new disease, being unable to evaluate accuracy and reliability systematically, we really can't trust the results.) But you don't need testing or treatment in new pandemics, since the only effective measure is various levels of quarantine and travel restrictions. (If South Korea had no testing but had only lockdowns, they would have still been fine.) Today, I think the risk of economic recession/depression (deaths, suicides, depressions, lack of confidence in authorities) is greater than the risk of swamping the medical system, especially if the heavy lockdown extends beyond April 30. I think this feeling is widespread, and is percolating from the bottom-up. Any heavy handed top-down governmental restrictions will be answered by spontaneous bottom-up rebellion - so in a way, I think your question is moot. Improvement in testing should go on, but their utility will primarily be in retrospective analysis for future outbreaks. We don't need precise knowledge from test results to know what to do now (again, the only thing to do is isolation with masks and some form of quarantine). And even if a vaccine is developed, I don't have confidence that it will be effective or safe enough, especially if it comes earlier rather than later. I agree at most people will get tired of this lockdown. I believe the economy will have to be opened up in May, possibly in baby steps. One concern I have is that you can’t really open up the economy without opening up the schools,which isn’t exactly a baby step. Perhaps open up kinder gartens first, then middle schools etc. This would still take a lot of time and I incur quite a bit of risk. Without schools being open, parents with kids are screwed. Then,what you describe interns of going out with mask, social distancing ET still doesn’t really help any service business like restaurants, hairdressers, bars, sports venues etc. Maybe they could operate,but at much reduced capacity. There is another can of worm with liabilities. What happens when there is an outbreak that can be traced at a business. Trial lawyers will go after this, show that some protocols weren’t followed and here we go with huge number of lawsuits. I don’t think it will be possible to buy insurance for this unless the government creates one.

LOL yea, or that the government response was a disaster, even though the numbers turned out to be pretty underwhelming. Or that Cuomo and De Blasio did a great just, when NY was the dumpster fire, WHILE broadcasting that the entire US was basically going to be Italy, when in realty it only ended up being his state and his elected officials... He didn't commit to things on purpose though, a lot of hucksters do this. That way, either way, they can claim they were right. Its a very NYer way to behave. I would put more blame on Blasio than on Cuomo for handling the COVID-19 epidemic. As a major, he is responsible to keep his city safe foremost and he failed to do so. When you look around the county, there were many majors (in Texas- DFW and Austin- etc) example), where majors before the state did and sometimes county the state advisory. Blasio failed in that regard it just continues his track record of failure (in my opinion) and while Cuomo wasn’t particular proactive either did manage the crisis well. The real hero’s (if you want to call it that) are Gary Newsom and Jay Inslee who were proactive, and despite having early exposure squashed this thing before the problem snowballed. It also can remind on the then derided decision of the SF major to shut down the city even though there were no cases at that time (February 25). Those folks deserve way more credit than Cuomo in my opinion.

I would have thought that recent events have impaired NYC status as a safe haven.

Florida has been producing boom and busts in RE since the 1920’s. Main industries are tourism and especially the theme park and cruises will take a big hit. Plenty of land. I would take my chances elsewhere, like a Rocky Mountain state.

I don’t have a position , but I would need to swallow crazy pills before pushing the buy button for $CVNA at $81.5

Do we actually still do trace and test here anymore? Seems like we have pretty much given up on tracing. I have a buddy in Germany who told me some of his relatives tested positive and they did trace down contacts during the last two weeks prior to the positive test results. So at least in Germany, they still attempt tracing.

10. Everyone is a potential vector for the disease but the young will barely be affected. Children should not be locked up when they are essentially protected from almost any symptoms of the disease. The sooner they get the virus, the sooner they can develop immunity. In other words, the sooner my kids get it, the sooner I will get it, and my wife, and her coworkers, and their spouses and spouse's coworkers, etc... etc... Children don't live at home alone, what is this author dreaming about? He is also wrong on hospitals not separating COVID from regular patients and likely many other details. Too many hobby doctors and epidemiologists now growing out of the woodwork. (Says the guy going down these rabbit holes himself.)

^ What the BOJ is doing is Nuts. It feels like a snake trying to eat it’s own tail. Other bugs are Italy, Greece(again) Spain, Brazil and perhaps other emerging markets, perhaps even Saudi Arabia (regime change ).

My theory for the reason for selling his airline stocks is that it makes it easier for the airlines to get good bailout conditions . Otherwise this would get politically charged as supporting a billionaire with $128B in dry powder taxpayers money. It looks better if you are poor and in clothed in a cheap suit rather than look like someone who has a rich uncle. WEB clearly doesn’t want to go all in with the airlines and I think the recent events have led his to change his view on the industry again.

“We don’t believe in loans we believe in grants”. It will be interesting to see what they come up for the airlines.

Perhaps more doctor visits, checkups?

SF has this guy playing. Marin county has “houling” at 8PM

I know you guys hate him, but this is satire you realize, right? The worst part is that it's becoming harder and harder to tell ;D Exactly. Should move this in the jokes section.

This gets better and better. Navarro who felt qualified to contradict Fauci, because has a PhD in “Social studies” has his degree from the defunct “Trump University”. https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/peter-navarros-phd-revealed-to-be-from-trump-university?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker&utm_social-type=earned To earn his Ph.D., Navarro wrote a doctoral dissertation entitled “Donald J. Trump: Genius or Savior?” LOL

He can’t open up the US because he never closed it in the first place. It’s funny how this works. I do think come May many states will gradually reopen.

Go get it, imo.

Sometimes the realty doesn’t match the advertisement. Or perhaps it was changed to: “ We live free, you may die”

LOL, the one of LC’s jokes sounds British.

Our friend from town told us that his brother was stopped by cops in central New Hampshire because of his MA license plates and urged to drive back to MA. Apparently they are concerned about Mass-holes infecting them. Those folks have a weekend/vacation home there and owned it for many years. I don’t think what these cops are doing is legal. This doesn’t happen around the border (Nashua)where lots of folks from MA go shopping, but venture further in and the wild East starts. Before that epidemics, I personally found the cops there exceptionally friendly.

Well said. I have little doubt that we are going back to normal , but the timeline and foremost the amount of effort to get there are pretty much in doubt and in general seem to be underestimated. Also, it won’t just happen by itself either, actions like you mentioned need to be started right now with great determination and they will need like any war a lot of resources..

My wife works as an RN on dialysis exclusively and she now sees a lot of patients with renal issues that need dialysis. Could it be that COVID-19 causes renal failure?

Some of the restaurants are doing a good staying. One Korean place close to my work sends out email promotions, gave out toilet paper rolls with each pickup/delivery and also started to offer meal kids (bake/fry at home ) for families. I am not really that keen on pickup (because of pot. Exposure) and even restaurant food delivered may carry some risk (disinfect containers etc.), so we don’t do that any more and delivery options are limited here in the boonies anyways. We we are cooking 100% at home and spending $400 on Costco food runs. I know others who do the same. We even have after hours “cheers” party via FaceTime where we salute each other with out drinks. I can do this for a couple of month, but long term it surely sucks.

Cheers: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemicallef/2020/04/04/how-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-upending-the-alcoholic-beverage-industry/#3a5bcf0b4b0b