Spekulatius

Any post-lockdown plans will surely involve mass serological testing of those who are vulnerable and isolating those who test negative, while the rest of us will take care of herd immunity. there's no other way. agreed. but this should have been the "lockdown" plan as well. establish "health census" for underlying conditions and elderly and confine the mitigation resources to them. all of these epidemiologists are using stupid assumptions as to what our health objective should be. it should NOT be reducing infections among the entire population. it should be reducing infections of a targeted population. you need someone with common sense to tell the epidemiologists what to model. Specifically what assumption/parameter do you believe is being widely used and incorrect? Again, your entire assumption is dependent on everyone non-elderly getting CV such that we have herd immunity. Herd immunity generally starts at ~80% of the population. Further, it's not been shown that immunity is long lasting or prevents repeat illness. Many epidemiologists have cautioned that this may not be the case. 29% of the US population is >55 years old. https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-age/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D ~5% of kids are raised by grandparents (this ignores all kids raised by older parents) 20% of the households in the US are multigenerational. Unless one wants to cull the herd, Herd immunity isn’t going to work in such a setting.

NY may be the worst now, but I am not sure it remains that way. I think Florida maybe similar and perhaps some states like Lousiana (New Orleans) and Texas who stayed too long with the “it‘s just a flu” mantra will pay the piper too. This will roll through all states without fail.

Actually, buying BP during the oils spill wasn’t all that profitable. Whatwad profitable we buying the collateral damage - stocks like HAL. I generally don‘t buy the directly affected Company, But the collateral damage. These stocks may be down less, but typically their exposure to the calamity in question is way less, making them a better risk reward. In terms of the current situation, Imam not sure that airlines hotel are a good buy currently. It seems that most airlines are probably zeros in a prolonged scenario and hotels may at least have raise capital to survive.

Doing fine myself. Outperforming the sucky index so far, which really doesn’t mean much. My main worry worry is that wife works in a relatively High risk position in ICU as a nurse and now started to get Covid19 patients. Hospital is short on PPE; hopefully that will get resolved. I hope that the Health care System holds up and can take care of the patients. We live on the border of NH and we still see a lot of complacent people all around, including at my work. I am quite worried about this becoming a depression and destroying wealth and the social fabric on a massive scale. The unemployment numbers that economists have been throwing around are mindboggling. My sense is the depth will pale the GFC and the damage to the economy might make recovery very difficult. see this in no way being priced in and it is a big worry, once we got over the epidemic itself.

It’s not anti dumping be sure the Saudis and the Russians still make a profit. Anyways, the tariff would just be a tax on consumers since the US also exports crude. Adjacent industries (petrochemicals, refineries) probably would need to close because they are not cost competitive.

The Virus might go into the Brain too. It would explain a lot.

So, if the bank automatically defers three months of loan payments, does that mean that it can pretend that everything is okay, and not crank up the provision for credit losses? Whereas, if clients approach the bank individually and ask for a deferment, or if they just fail to pay without any previous conversation, that would require pumping up both the specific and general components of PCL? Just trying to understand what game the bank is playing, and why. SJ The game is called extend and pretend. Apparently government approved.

The problem with empty stadiums is loss of ticket revenues. This is particularly acute for Hockey which doesn't get much TV money. Ticket sales are around 70% of NHL revenue. At that level they probably can't cover expenses with empty stadiums. But even for the mighty NFL ticket sales are still around 40% of revenue. Can you actually operate at these level? As far as I know a lot of these teams don't actually make a lot of money. Some revenue is better than no revenues. Players will need to take pay cuts.

The only reason why the recommendation are not changed already because none or too be had anyways and those that can be had need to go to the hospitals first.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst. LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago. Not. The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast. lower tax coast? What is that? CA? ::) Also, data? My house in CA was taxed at 1.25% of purchase value plus an inflation adjustment. I paid about 4K in taxes for my house. I bought a house for a lower value in LI. Tax was 11k. It was considered low because the proper owner fought the taxes otherwise they would be 12.5k. My house in MA is taxed 1.8% of fair market value (it cost a bit more) - 10k. So yes, the RE taxes in CA are lower, especially if you are in the house for a long time, because of Proposition 13 and a lower tax rate. Of course adjusted for the enormous prices in the Bay are you may pay more in absolute $.

A lot of things will not go back to normal until we have a a vaccine. Sport, air travel, Cruise lines, concerts are examples. These sectors are looking at a long winter. Some sports are probably going to be plaid in empty stadiums for TV only. Takes away some fun and atmosphere but its better than nothing.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst. LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago. Not. The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.

The best argument for facemasks, of any kind, regardless of their filtration efficacy, is that they stop people from unconsciously touching their face. Was listening to a doctor from NY being interviewed on the radio and he said the vast majority of community spread cases (as in not family members) came from a person touching their face rather than breathing in droplets. If you're in close proximity to someone with the virus for a prolonged amount of time, yes the aerosolized virus is an issue. However, for the majority of people who are not exposed to infected people more than in passing, a simple mask coupled with an awareness to not touch your face will reduce your risk significantly. Masks do two things. - they protect the person who is wearing them and in protect everyone else around a pot. Infected person too. The Virus main mechanism of transmission is droplets which occur when talking or coughing. A mask will capture most of those, if an infected wears them protecting her people around. Even an imperfect mask should be a filter and dramatically reduce the amount of drops and their reach, both coming and as well as coming out.

Skilled workers shouldn’t be a problem. I do agree it’s the idea time to do infrastructure, with resources being idle otherwise. That’s how the Golden Gate bridge and the Hoover damn was build during the Great Depression.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming. As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement. We will create makeshift hospitals. And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare. Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world. It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. Change is inevitable. You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you don’t think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60’s impacted the future of this city. It’s naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee.

Yes, it seem that Washington state is under control for now. Hopefully it stays that way. Sometimes it actually is good to be hit first. I also think in Washington’s case, the governor did a good job, but I think part of it is just luck too. Social distancing is rally hard in NYC as well, it’s way easier in less densely populated areas. The other worrying hotspots are Florida, New Orleans and I believe Washington DC as well.

It will be interesting to see how it works. Something they works in one country, may not work in another. Sweden has a good health care system and the people in general are way healthier than most other countries including the US (much lower rates for asthma and obesity compared to the US or Germany example) While they are taking some risk, the Swedes are also considered responsible so if the government brings the hammer down, they will probably see pretty good compliance. I think a lot can be learned how each country approaches this and how they do, but it is difficult to compare this directly and conclude what works in one country will work in another as well without adjustments. Italy and Spain are socioeconomic and cultural similar and have a similar outcome in this epidemic for example.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know... Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes. Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so. Maybe if you get a camera crew he will show up at Elmhurst? Everyone looks forward to Coronacrisis season two this fall?

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. I think it is crucial to keep the timeline to reopen the economy as short as possible and in order for that to happen, new infection rates will need to come down. Well now pretty much the consensus seems to be that it'll be a recession. But consider that this is a moving average. A couple of weeks ago most ppl thought we weren't even gonna go in a recession. I was probably among them. Now I don't see how we don't even get a normal recession even under the best circumstances when we open. A drop in durable goods. Think about it, you went through a layoff, it's a freaking virus, you don't know if it comes back again or not, whether you get laid off again or not. Are you gonna go out and buy a new car or washing machine? My guess is that for a lot the answer is no. So a recession. I'd like to add that we recently haven't been doing very well with the recessions. So let's say that the best case scenario is we have a 2001. Sure! But honestly 2001 didn't feel that freaking good. There is no way we are going to avoid a recession. The Economic numbers this quarter and next will probably be the worst on record. Futures down 1.4% so far. Not too bad.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know... Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes. Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so.

Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate :o Literally his words.

What news from Europe has been "not so good"? Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe? What stat in particular doesn't look good? Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly. I agree. While Europe has flattened , the US is showing exponential growth that is going to take weeks to break. What are you guys talking about? I've attached Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK. Aside from Italy they look pretty fucking exponential to me. Italy has had a a China style quarantine for a couple of weeks now. No more growth at all? Seriously? The numbers of newly infected/day has been stagnant at ~6k people daily in Italy for example. That actually is progress. Spain is still get worse, but the rate of growth has leveled off. Not great by any means but better then exponential growth.

Interesting example of news Priorities for a NYC newspaper at a day when POTUS thing was about sealing of the great NYC area:

So, my wife went to work out one of the three hospital she’s works for yesterday and they told her that the surgical mask shall be worn for 5 shifts before getting discarded. This is a surgical mask, not even the better N95’s that are handed out as PPE. Unbelievable!. If you ever worn a surgical mask (I Have worn similar ones in clean rooms) , you know it’s not going last 5 shifts. This particular hospital is just at the beginning as first patients just rolled in the newly rigged up Covid floor (it’s correctly named droplet control floor but everyone calls it the former). Her boss told her at the beginning not work without proper PPE which is provided by the hospital. She doesn’t work technically fo the hospital since she is working for a company which is a contractor for specialty care (dialysis). Things are awfully tight when it’s just beginning. I don’t like the choices she has to make.