Spekulatius

SD is describing a yieldco like a REIT or pipeline company. Those often have substantial leverage and can easily get impaired. I guess you have to pick them carefully, as is always the case.

This is one I am unsure about too. Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case). So in opinion this means that we go down the path of heard immunity, at least in bigger cities, but most likely everywhere unless we constrain movement between states or even cities for 18 month. Now heard immunity or vaccines may or may not even exist or be feasible, but no matter, virtually everyone just isn’t get the virus in this case sooner or later. I would like hear different viewpoints on how we still contain this using test and trace from out current starting point of test capacity and the likely opening of the economy in May or early June. Also, I would like to hear if anyone thinks that schools can be closed for 18 month. Opening up a school (which can be staggered into kindergartens, elementary school etc) will simultaneously expose a large number of people to the virus and most likely create a significant spike in cases, no matter how we do it. Can we keep them closed? Should we? I don’t think we can, but others may have a different viewpoint.

Lots of liquor stores and distilleries or even wineries are selling hard to get hand sanitizers now. It’s a great thing that ethanol has many different uses, Some point out not to drink hand sanitizers, which doesn’t make sense anyways economically, because that stuff sells for similar prices than booze.

According to the latest WHO information there is no evidence getting infected with Covid will provide immunity to future infections. That's why they warned against "immunity passports". I agree, but they are gambling on this. If we can’t get immunity an vaccine very likely won’t work reliably either and we are in deep trouble with 2-3 million excess dead in the US alone after this has run its course. That is unless we found ways to reduce the IFR rate, which I think is somewhat likely, but by how much? I also think we are gambling on this without explicitly stating so. At least in parts of the US like NYC we probably reach herd immunity before any vaccine is coming to the market one way or another.

There goes that lone example from the “do nothing” crowd. But what do you expect from people who lack any sense of objectivity and scientific literacy? Often wrong, never in doubt. I think at this point, the Swedes have done OK in my opinion. As long as their health care system isn’t crashing in Stockholm, where the population density is highest, their approach isn’t really a failure. They try to get herd immunity at an acceptable cost (in terms of lives). So far, by their own judgement, that is still the case and who are we to judge otherwise? Also, besides that , Sweden isn’t really normal either, they just have a soft shutdown instead off hard one. not too different from what we have in some states in the US. https://www.thelocal.se/20200424/interview-isabella-lovin-coronavirus-the-biggest-myth-about-sweden-is-that-life-is-going-on-as-normal

Possibly loss of muscle mass if you can't work out at home. Muscle loss would be a slow process? Maybe stress from this situation leads to eating and drinking more? I have seen garbage food being sold out (SPAM, MAC and Cheese) etc being sold out at supermarkets early on ,but that’s over know. That is actually similar to 9/11 the same thing happened , but less severe. In a crisis, people tend to eat garbage food or food that they have eaten as a child. I have a home gym and live pretty much in the country side. I can see that it feels different ,if you live in the 6th floor in a NYC apartment.

Spekulatius, how do you compare these with FRA.DE (Frankfurt Airport). Lower country and regulatory risk in Germany I would think. Well, Germany has less country risk and I think returns need to be adjusted for country risk. Then on the other hand, Fraport balance sheet is far worse, with debt being 3.5x EBITDA going on and it was rising due to a buildout program. I think they need to readjust their strategy around this, as capacity may not be needed a long time. I think air travel will need a long time to recover - many years to get back to peak levels in 2019. I think there will be very little air travel for the next 12 month. FRA.DE should be fine, the state Hessen owns the majority of shares and will support with loan guarantees if necessary, but let’s face it all thee airports are impaired for years. I sold my Fraport shares that I initially bout buying the dip at a loss for a bit more than 42 Euros. There is a Lot of stuff that will recover faster than air travel, especially international air travel.

Pretty stable myself around 168 pounds. I am on low carb diet since about 9 month ago. Regardless of lockdown, why would anyone have a drastic weight change 6 weeks into this?

Huh? Trump approved of Georgia’s plan to reopen before bashing it https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2020/04/24/trump-georgia-reopening

Are you sure it's the right link? Works for me, but I am also member . I logged out and repost: https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

For sure. But does the currency risk matter in the 5-10 year time frame? I know it has been hit hard in the last couple of months, but doesn't that even out over time? You said you've been looking into them. Any thoughts? I like OMAB. It’s more of a business destination, which might recover faster than tourism. I think their net debt negligible, so they should survive even a lengthy downturn. I wouldn’t expect much business for the next 12 month and hopefully a recovery after.

I went on a walk on a trail today. Nobody was wearing a mask. I felt ridiculous. To be fair, I think the chance of an Infection outside is minimal if you keep some distance (although many don’t do so either).

This is a excellent post I another board on how South Korea was able to control the Virus . Key was to put the hammer doesn’t early. https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502

If credible evidence is presented that Biden is indeed a rapist, he is done as a Candidate. FWIW, this topic doesn’t belong in this Thread as it is OT.

This is a noteworthy data point that I didn't keep up on--I thought it was always 6, not 14. Thanks for the update, Spekulatius . Well it’s a small dataset and shouldn’t be taken for face value it rather as a ballpark idea one what the distribution may look like. Once we get more data coming in, we might revise. Softly the ~1% IFR rate is a reasonable ballpark I tighten 0.5% or 15-, but it’s unlikely to be 0.1% or 5% at this point. None of this is set in stone. Doctors will get better at fighting this as we get a better understanding of how the disease works and how to prevent the downward spiral that seems to affect some patients.

I am looking at them too, they have very low debt. I think you need to include country risk - Mexico will get disproportionately hard hit and they currency lost already 20% Relative to the USD and may devalue more.

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one. 0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective. On thing I overlooked when looking at the IFR rate is that death cases have a long tail. They typically occur many weeks after the infection and display of symptoms Example of this was the Diamond Princess when only 6 death were reported first, but subsequently ended up with 14 dead. While that is a small sample size, I think the likely conclusion is that the IFR rate is higher than the ~0.7% rate calculated probably by as much than a factor 2 It’s all highly uncertain at this point and ballpark estimates, but better than nothing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess ...and normalize with respect to the age. The median age of the passengers was 69. I believe all of the deaths were passengers. So, if you assume IFR of ~1.4% for that old-age population group, the IFR for the entire population would be much, much lower. Yes, but the crew is substantial ( think it’s roughly 1 crew member for 2 passengers) and the crews median age is 36. Also, the older folks on a cruise are probably healthier than average for their age. So count it all in and it biased old but not that old. It still doesn’t matter, the point I was trying to make is that many death occurred way later.

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one. 0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective. On thing I overlooked when looking at the IFR rate is that death cases have a long tail. They typically occur many weeks after the infection and display of symptoms Example of this was the Diamond Princess when only 6 death were reported first, but subsequently ended up with 14 dead. While that is a small sample size, I think the likely conclusion is that the IFR rate is higher than the ~0.7% rate calculated probably by as much than a factor 2 It’s all highly uncertain at this point and ballpark estimates, but better than nothing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess

The best political ads the democrats can run for the election are just going to be short clips from his daily WH COVID-19 news briefings.

Bought a bit of CB (insurer)

I love the confidence! Even though you are so consistently proven wrong, you still post with gusto! What is the Infection Fatality Rate of the flu? Nobody actually believes it is 0.67%, do they? This comprehensive review shows ~10 deaths per 100,000 H1N1infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ So comparing your bogus numbers for CV to these bogus numbers for H1N1, CV is 67 times more deadly than the flu! I love the stupidity! the 21% positive antibody test results on NYCers (3000 person sample) is the best DATUM we have on creating the correct denominator of the mortality per infection rate. what is your problem, Larkin? https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/ I agree that this is a meaningful study. It’s large enough and reasonably random. There might be a bias in just choosing people outside vs at home but it is likely not a strong one. 0.67% morbidity is ~7x deadlier than the flu though. The flu kills between 10-50k annually and infects ~30M (roughly ) so thats in the 0.1% ballpark. In addition, it’s much more infective.

Yes, that’s a real problem . My wife runs the dialysis machines in ICU‘s and they’re super busy , because many patient need dialysis (often the result of organ failures from oxygen deficiencies most likely) and the machines clogging up from blood clots. Nobody expected anyone this going into this. Now we are short dialysis equipment, staff to operate them and consumables. Doctors trying treat this with blood thinners and clot busters. On a related note, an investigation offend in Switzerland and Germany found blood knots in lung and heart of the deceased, likely contributing or even causing the death. This may have implications for treating severe cases going forward.

Re Antibody Tests from Roche CEO. He could be talking his own book of course, but I don’t think so: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disaster-roche-ceos-verdict-covid-055050902.html

If a million people die (regardless of age) the economy would be trash anyways. Probably worse than it is right now (if that’s possible). Can you expand on this? If a million people die... would the economy necessarily be trashed? I'm interested in thoughts on this. -- I suppose if we got to point of 1million dead, we would have completely overwhelmed the health care system, and a lot more doctors and nurses would sicken and die from COVID. And many people would die from untreated heart attacks (et al) due to lack of medical care. If 1 million people die over 6 months or 1 year that is 30 bps of the US population. But the US population was growing around 70 bps per year so still some slight population growth. I don't know how much the economy would go down in a no stay at home situation (probably less though). The economy would go to trash with 1M excess death in let‘s say 6 month due to widespread panic. It is irrelevant that the population would still keep growing or if the government would claim we are open for business. The multiplicative nature of epidemic vs randomness of natural causes makes a huge psychological difference. If human psychology wouldn’t play a role, 9/11 (~3000 dead) would have been a non- event economically for example.