Spekulatius

https://robintrack.net/symbol/KODK

Ok...So I guess "the crash" will be in 6 mo then... You also said schools will open in most states by September which is possible but depends too much on local politicians. I think new case numbers will improve from here on out (have likely peaked nationwide), but "dramatically improved" is questionable. Furthermore, hospitalizations and deaths will have a longer tail due to inherent delays. I definitely do not think there is enough data to suggest we are close to herd immunity as you've suggested. But none of this really matters economically as the damage is done particularly to the U.S. due to a much longer drawn out and larger in magnitude pandemic than most industrialized countries (second round of fiscal stimulus in progress...). Those second and third order (largely economic) effects of the pandemic will have a long tail... Let's put it this way, if the US daily new cases do not drop to 20k or below by the end of August, I'll apologize in this thread. How about that? I am pretty sure the infection rates will be going down near term, but predicting the infection rates really didn’t help much predicting the stock market at all. I also think come fall and in particular post Thanksgiving, the Infection rates will start rising again most likely. However by then, the election Outcome is likely more important for the stock market.

Looks like insidertrading is crime number one: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/closer-look-kodak-chairmans-stock-173052759.html There are likely more. I can’t see how Kodak is most qualified to produce pharmaceutical ingredients. There are likely hundreds of more qualified entities.

Thanks on the color for HII. I heard the “metal bender” characterization of HII business in a MF industry focus podcast. I do think there is a bit of truth in it. I looked at HII too, but ultimately decided to buy the higher tech LHX and NOC instead. My portfolio is already “armed to the teeth” with holdings in RHM.DE, BAESY, NOC, GD and LHX and I simply don’t want to own them all.

Can you recommend some Fidelity funds? Thanks I like their health care funds. FSPHX is good.

Valuation doesn’t make a lot of difference when your thesis is right, but it sure makes a lot of difference when the thesis is wrong. To buy a little by at least when you like the business but consider the valuation stretched, with the intent to buy more if valuation becomes more favorable is a reasonable approach. It does goes counter the currently prevailing wisdom to never average down though. It's hard for me to add to MSFT when I have a cost base around $24. I was buying around 7-8x earnings back then. 35 seems like a kings ransom. I also owned some MSFT at $24 and sold at $40. That’s deep value investing.... Today’s MSFT equivalent could well be INTC, if management can turn it around. You would get the rising earnings and rising multiple Goldilocks. The rising multiple was responsible for half the returns with MSFT (eyeballing this roughly).

I think I just stick with Fidelity. LOL

As far as I know medicare is specifically prohibited from using this power through the Medicare Modernization Act. Thx, I wasn’t aware of this. I guess that would be a low hanging fruit to pick. Well theoretically ....

Do you have any graphs of daily deaths? Sorry, that doesn't fit their narrative. You know what they say, however, "wait two weeks" I wonder what happened in late May and early June that could have been a catalyst for the increase?? +1 Father’s Day and Memorial Day.

LLY stock price is down ~1% alongside other drug companies but generally speaking, life has been good for drug manufacturers recently , but not so good for consumers: https://www.consumerreports.org/drug-prices/the-shocking-rise-of-prescription-drug-prices/ Medicare has a lot of market power already, they just need to use it. They can take some clues from single payer countries allover the world on how to do it.

It’s not jut government deciding what to do, but also individuals and organizations. Flight trends are doen ~60% (These are search stats, but probably give a good idea). You can fly but most people don’t want to. https://www.kayak.com/flight-trends

I don’t think the vaccine is binary at all. For one thing, it is likely not 100% effective and might only reduce the probability of infection by 50%. This might enough to get us to herd immunity (or close) by suppressing the ro when almost everyone takes it, but it won’t protect he individual who takes it reliably. Also, vaccines work less well on older people because their immune system is weaker and doesn’t respond as well. The main benefit for older people might be from the compounding effect that kicks in when everyone takes not when you personally takes it. It’s similar to a mask in a way. Now with the way things play out, I am not sure everyone would take the vaccine.There were already board members here who stated they won’t. Now you have anti vacciner and those that give a damn because there don’t consider themselves personally at risk (younger folks presumable) and this who don’t have access to health care and I can see that it will be difficult to get the population here vaccinated efficiently and thorough. Again, leadership will be essential once we have a vaccine to get this done and maybe give some incentives for people to vaccinate. It will be interesting but my guess is it won’t be binary.

Any idea why EQR appears to be the dog in the apartment Reit space? MAA seems to be the top performer.

Valuation doesn’t make a lot of difference when your thesis is right, but it sure makes a lot of difference when the thesis is wrong. To buy a little by at least when you like the business but consider the valuation stretched, with the intent to buy more if valuation becomes more favorable is a reasonable approach. It does goes counter the currently prevailing wisdom to never average down though.

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not). Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too. The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something.

Yes, if there is a substantial change in the story (not just an earnings miss when overall numbers are still good etc.) than AH tend to lack. It figure that funds managers don’t well AH they are going to meet in the morning and decide to sell. I think it’s faster than 3 days in many cases, but something it takes weeks to dissipate. I have MSFT on my watch list as well, but I don’t think I would take a bite above ~$180 (~30x earnings).

Is it just me, or is the website currently very sluggish, especially when making a post. I suspect others here experience the same, since I do see double posts quite a bit.

Are you just being sarcastic? Rarely does the fundamental investment case go from investable to not a great idea in 24 hours or with a few buck s/t move. Or are you just looking for a quick flip here? Bought a small bit this morning, not super exciting, but basically at mid March levels now. The fundamental bet will need time to work out, but my entry was in retrospect too hastIly, as it often is good idea to wait a bit and letting the bad News And selling to dissipate a bit. In fact even today’s entry may be too early. But then again, I typically start small and adding more is pretty much part of the plan. iI am typically not that keen on turnaround any more, but in this care, I think there is enough meat on the bone that I can get out flat if they keep screwing up and it should work out nicely, if they get a few things right. They are lucky they they have a lot of secular tail winds (5G, cloud, remote working, AI) that goes in their favor he gives them more time and resources to execute. Worst case, they need to pivot and abandon their strategy to keep leading edge manufacturing in house, sell or spin off wafer fabs and use TSM like AMD did more than a decade ago when they couldn’t keep up.

More INTC (my AH buy yesterday was clearly not a great idea) and a bit more CBOE.

I cant think of any other way a virus that started in China goes global...can you? Way to totally miss the context. The countries that are doing badly are doing badly because they didn't do the steps to control the virus, and those that do well do so because they did. There's variance and some places were less lucky or had worse demographics/density/etc than others, but generally, the virus was within the borders of all these islands and if they hadn't done the steps, they'd be doing just as bad as anyone else. In the early phases the virus spread by travel, but once it's everywhere and travel has been mostly shut down for months, what matters is the local response, not blocking new infections from outside. Or in other words, it's been many months now that the source of new infections is local, not international. I agree on this , local response matters more later. Being isolated ( relatively speaking) gives a country a better fighting chance to isolate early outbreaks and prevent subsequent reinfections. All this doesn’t really matter if your local response let the virus run rampant - the UK is a great example of this.

NZ did very well. One overarching theme is that islands ( NZ, Australia ( technically a continent but still surrounded by water), Iceland, Japan , South Korea ( norther border is impenetrable) can do better because they have easier ways to control access. The exception are the turds from the UK of course.

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters.

where in NYC? I live in Burlington, VT. I remember the days when people (myself included) would line up for an hour or more to get it. Now, it's available at every supermarket, gas station, corner store, etc. here. I still grab some every once in a while, but there are so many other amazing IPAs here in VT. CT/ Burlington has some good stuff to drink. We recently stopped by at von Trapp in Stowe and Vermont Artisan Coffee and I loved Citizen Cider in Burlington when we visited a few month ago. Would be nice to meet for a cold one when this pandemics crab blows over.

One way to monetize the size is to market add ins like screeners or data sources like rocket finance, tikr.com through the website in exchange for a cut. The clientele here is likely susceptible to these products/ subscriptions.

Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry. MRTN just posted outstanding results, and after following(like with a lot of names) for some time decided to use some cash to put it in the portfolio. They are incredibly well managed, have an impenetrable balance sheet, have refined the business to be primarily temperature controlled transport rather than competing for everything under the sun. As such they've been able to hold reasonable leverage on pricing and grow revenues much more consistently than the "peers". Theyre basically a trucking company that doesnt really have the problems most trucking companies have, and this has historically been the case. Someone recently blogged on ODFL and how despite being in what is typically a "commoditized" business have earned very good returns on capital. Marten doesn't seem to earn returns on capital or achieve operating ratios similar to ODFL. Do you think their business is improving so that returns on capital and operating ratio continue to improve? ODFL is the class act in the industry. I owned it for a bit in 2007 and then sold because of the economic unrest with the upcoming recession back then. I wish I just stashed it in a coffee can. Today the trucking stocks are much much more expensive. Edit, back to the topic, I bought some WFCF today. For whatever reason, there was a very motivated seller who hit every bid.