Spekulatius

This is interesting, why do you think this will be a great investment? Germany historically has had low ownership rates and stable prices. So number one there is a large rental market. 2. RE is quite cheap in German cities. 3. Due to the interest rate situation ownership rates and prices have started to tick up in recent years. I think situation will continue. 4. Cap rates are pretty good by themselves so you don't need a lot of price appreciation. 5. There are some reits that are trading around book. Also they don't take a chunk of money out for their private "administration company" which is nice. WExboy wrote a couple of blog posts on German real estate ideas https://wexboy.wordpress.com/2013/11/21/german-residential-property-an-update/ I bought Sedlmayr back a few years ago and had my Mom do the same. I recently sold as it doubled. I think the time to get inot German RE plays was couple of years ago, now commercial RE looks fairly priced and residential RE becomes overvalued. I actually think there are better opportunities in the US now. ( German transplant here, don't claim to be expert in either German nor US real estate.)

I am a very recent shareholder (5% position) and I just sold my shares today. Rarely ever had an investment left me as befuddled as Fairfax in such a short time after I bought.

Let us know what your are drinking or inhaling, I want to get some of the same stuff too.

I understand your rationale and I agree that this deal makes Fairfax a more difficult stock to hold. I just recently entered a position on the price weakness and intend to hold a bit. I also think the recent price weakness in Fairfax shares was due to Mr Market "knowing" something about this deal coming. This is a pretty large acquisition, meaning that a lot of investment bankers must have known about this, plus there was a debt offering that made no sense unless there was an acquisition being planned.

I don't think that owning real estate or a house outright is a rational capital allocation decision right now, with interest rates as low as they are right now, interest being tax deductible and the mortgage being non-recourse. The way I look at it, owning a house with a mortgage is safer than owning a house outright, because you can put the house back to the lender, if the price goes down a lot and you are protected against rising interest rates, which would probably depress real estate prices, but would depress the intrinsic value of the fixed rate mortgage loan even more. So while you could go underwater with a large mortgage on your house, your loan payment would stay the same, and if the rising interest rates are accompanied by higher inflation, your cash flow situs on would actually improve.

With respect to the home, it seems that the better approach would be to load up the house up to the roof with debt, and if an adverse event occurs that lowers the value of your home, you just put it back to the lender. You keep a cash pile on the side and invest a good part of it conservatively. The investment return should beat the interest cost of the mortgage. At least in the US, where mortgage interest cost is deductible and mortgages are non-recourse, that seems to be a better approach.

Seems odd. I know that there are a few OTC stocks that IB does not let you trade in (typically ones that don't trade in month) You can also trade in securities without even having market data (in contradiction to above statement) - you will get a warning message that you need to confirm, but they will let you make a trade. For OTC stocks, E*TRADE is quite good.

During the heydays of the financial crisis in Oct 2008, several ETF's were trading at significant discounts to their NAV. For example, the fairly liquid AGG bond fund traded at a discount >5% for a couple of days. Those were efficient markets working at their finest.

Merkel is not going to survive another selection as a chancellor - the refuge disaster in Germany alone is enough reason for that.

So much for that: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/n-kkk-group-hold-victory-parade-donald-trump-article-1.2868491 I know this week has been dragging on slowly, but four years has yet to pass. The trailer community may be better for the country than the filth that currently inhabits DC. Want a microcosm of why Trump received twice as many electoral votes as pretty much every one of these folks predicted? Look at how DC voted. 93% for Clinton. Then look at the break down for the rest of the country. Yup, just another example of how out of touch these folks are. DC is and pretty much always has been a circus. Adding Palin to the mix just gives another act to complement the Paul Ryan, Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell, and Pochahontas shows. I expect he swamp in DC to exist in 4 years, only some of the inhabitants will change.

Mr Market went from "disaster scenario" to "blue sky" after the Trump victory. I think it is premature to make any predictions, what our President will or can do. I honestly think, he doesn't know himself. I personally expect way more volatile in the future than in the past. Personally, I like volatility and hope to benefit from it.

...until credit defaults spike and the commercial and residential RE market goes down the drain. Do you think 5% cap rates will exist with 5% treasury LT rates? The write downs and defaults in RE would be staggering and most banks won't survive them. Do you think the economy could withstand 6% rates? Do you think the Fed would let that happen? Federal debt interest expense would be something to see under that scenario!

Trump want to "rebuild" the military, not cut it.

The people living close to the proposed wall, even in Texas don't seem to like the idea too much, based on the election vote map.

How did you come up with the artificial threshold of prediction the climate 100 years in advance. you know full well that this would have required somebody in 1916, when there were no computer or computer models at all, not even reliable data, to make a prediction what the climate would look like in 2016? How would that be possible?

I sold my bank, insurance and infrastructure stocks into this post election rally. Bought a little FRFHF for the first time, but other than that, I intend to sit on the cash for a while.

And conflict of interest wouldn't be a problem if Trump makes a deal for his hedge fund buddies? Asking for fodder for investigations?

A few thought son the election: The rift within the populace appears to be deepening. There are regions where 80% of the votes go to one party (Philadelphia and Democrats), while in some rural areas almost 80% of the votes go to Trump /Republicans. This makes it harder for a President to represent all the people. If only half the people feel represented by the current government, then this does not bode well. Many voters are upset enough, that they are willing to roll the dice on a candidate. It is astonishing to see that Trump can actually defeat both parties and win the election. I do think that both of the above increase the risk that we get a very wrong person as a president eventually. I do see some parallel to Germany in 1933, when the Nazis took over. no, I don't think that Trump is a Nazi or even remotely should be compared to a Nazi. I do think some framework is the same, a country that is split in two fractions without middle ground, people that want change and are willing to roll the dice on who,leads the country, as well as people neglecting deep character flaws (I guess because they want change and don't care about the rest). Eventually withnthe above, I think the US runs serious risk of electing someone who will do a lot of change and not for the better. Demagogy works. It's just sad. Both parties seem seriously screwed up in how they elect their leaders. In fairness, Trump rolled over his party, but Clinton was the best that the Democrats could come up with? With a less decisive front runner, they sure should have won this Election. I dislike Trump, but I hope he will be a better President than many think he will be. Much depends on who will run the government with him. My biggest fear is what will happen with the next Elections? The folks that want change now, who will they vote for next, if they don't get the change? It's scary to think that they will double up in change and elect a real whacko? I hope I am too pessimistic here.

I'm not worried at all about inflation. Btw if you get the inflation it means that things are going well and you got nothing to worry about. But now I'd probably take a closer look at those Fairfax hedges. I think the banks are rallying today because Elizabeth Warren won't be the Chairwoman of the Senate Finance Committee. Inflation does not mean that things are going well. I was very young then, but I do remember the seventies and things were definitely not going well. I do think the banks rallied because of the perception that higher interest rates are more likely under Trump.

How about a stockpile of Yen. JPY.USD is up 3%.

Anybody looking at futures? The MXN.JPY urgency future is down 11.5%, the SP500 future ~ 3%. Interesting night. Oops - make that -4%.

In my book, Obama did OK, as far as the economy is concerned. While we give a president credit for the stock market performance during his presidency, the stock market certainly did more than OK. Moreover, I had a real concern in late 2008 and early 2009, that we would go into a 1930 style meltdown. I think Obama and Bernanke did a good job reinstating confidence again in the financial institutions (remember Bernanke's "fireside: chat in front of his parents home in North Caroline?), steering the bailouts for GM (despite the gripes about pensioners getting better treatment than debtholders), slowly getting the economy moving again. I think the slow growth after a big meltdown should not surprise anyone, especially some of the laissez faire Republican's. It is well known, that after a debt binge, often a period of slower growth follows. Could some things have been done better? Yes, certainly but I personally think that just avoiding an economic meltdown itself is a huge victory that give Obama, to some extend the late Bush and Bernanke some credit for.

Most of these unpaid bills stem from Trump firms/properties that went into bankruptcy. It's a bit ironic for me to think that Trump who had several of his firms go into bankruptcy is qualified to fix the US deficit. If I had a choice to make business with Hillary or with Trump, I would chose the former - at least I would be reasonably sure to get paid. I do think I would take a close look at the fine print with both.

MNPP - somebody else actually owns this puppy. I have got a few shares, but it's hard to buy - the stock does not trade every month. My largest positions are LAACZ,BRKb, EEQ,BWP, WPZ,NSS,DISCK, SNI,GRVO.PA, BAC and about 30 more positions. Edit - forgot about FMBL,QUCT and HNFSA (about 4% positions each)

After he has disposed of it.