Spekulatius

The German car manufacturers have tinkered with hydrogen (fuel cells) forever and it didn’t really go any where. same with Ballard Power. I think it is simply losing out to batteries which have shown steady progress on terms cost and energy density. Hydrogen is a dangerous gas, as it is odorless, leaks easily (small molecules) has a low vapor point and is highly explosive. The hurdle to make it safe is substantial.

Gunslingers are going to shoot: No opinion on this trade, but zerohedge isn’t exactly solid research material.

Each it’s own, for me blowups are unacceptable, because I am not in my thirties any more. Blowup risk is actually a pretty substantial risk, imo, especially with newer investment managers that try to create a track record. There were some that bet it all on back in March 2020 and that might have blown up in if the path would have been different. There is a huge incentive to make or break it, when you are starting out. If can‘t afford blowups, invest with level headed guys @Packer16 ( Bonhoeffer fund ) or @oddballstocks ( Alluvial ) and your risk of a devastating loss should be very low, compared to the gunslingers in the business. All imo, and worth what you are paying for.

Well, of course there is also that failed Mongolian real estate adventure ( Mongolian Growth group) which was discussed here, but that was another blow up after the GFC. https://seekingalpha.com/article/1987231-investing-in-mongolia-yes-mongolia When you read his newsletter, or Twitter feed, he is always 100% convinced, despite doing minimal research. I recall one moment where he claimed that LDO.MI (Leonardo) was the cheapest defense stock in Europe and apparently had bought a poisition. Well, it is sort of true, if you just look at the stock for 10 min based on very crude numbers (P/S) but if you look at bit deeper, there is all sorts of trouble and good reason why it’s cheap. They have a structural profitability issue in one of their largest business, but more importantly, at that time they had a CEO who basically had one foot in jail because of a fraud allegation: https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2020/10/15/leonardo-ceo-found-guilty-of-fraud-in-previous-job/ Well, Kuppy didn’t know any of this, but to his credit, when I quickly pointed this out, I think he changed his mind and sold. So yes, investing with him wouldn’t be my kupp of tea (pun) but as an idea generating, I think he is OK. Just be aware that you need to do your own due diligence before following him in his trades. I fully expect him to blow up again in the future at some point.

With Kuppy’s style, one thing to consider is that taxes are going to be high, as every trade is pretty much short term. This may work better in tax deferred account than a taxable account, Imo. I did subscribe to his newsletter for a while (while it was free) but I didn’t like his particular style. Basically, Kuppy does thematic trades. This means things, like tanker trade, LooT trade, re-opening trades, uranium trader, NG trade etc. He comes up with a new thematic trade every one or two month, then recommend a few names, but very little research goes into analyzing those names or individual stocks. There isn’t much follow up onto the trade either, he just comes up with a new one and sometimes, but not always, recommends closing or exiting this and that. Some of these trades work well, some not so much. If the bottom falls out of a thematic trade or individual name he often will post that he traded out just before the stock cratered. Hard to verify and I suspect that he watches just his charts very closely as well as any news and gets the hell out of there, if things look iffy. I have no idea whether subscribers in his service would be able to duplicate his near miss exits. Anyhow, he creates a lot of ideas and if you are into thematic trades , then Kuppy newsletter may offer some value. I knew for sure, it wasn’t for me, but that doesn’t mean some of his ideas aren’t good. It is just that most of his stuff isn’t in my hit zone, but that’s just me.

I am not sure this topic should be here at all, as it is easy to cross legal boundaries with private or startup investments. That’s Parsad’s call however. I say this regardless of the merit of this particular startup.

@Gregmal I disagree that Ibuying is a small part of the story for RDFN and Z. When you read the CC transcripts as well as some bullish writeups that where management believe the puck is going and they are betting on this big time, perhaps even their companies. This better works out or there is going to be hell to pay for the bulls.

The margins on ibuying aren’t that high, certainly they are never going to be 25%, most likely they are single digits. They have been able to securitize some debt, but then again, what happens if RE makers turn sour and the homes cannot be sold, except at steep discounts. I can see a scenario where these securitization aren’t possible which means that either pillow has to put in way more equity or exit this business for some time. They see themselves as market maker and apparently pay more commission to RE agents to show these homes than regular ones. I see this consuming tons of capital, having the potential to cause huge losses in a downturn and very little durable moat even at scale.

@tparelThanks for the link to the paper. Great read. I found the service useful as it challenged some of my prevailing views. I also think they are making some avoidable blunders with picking stocks with questionable business models or even frauds ( Lukin coffee). Luck in coffee was an interesting one because short sellers had already pointed out plenty if red flags before the MF SA recommended it. This disaster was totally avoidable. In other cases they piled on with recommendation that went already hyperbolically and in some cases, those that bought found themselves out of 50% of their ones 2 month later. Some of those were repeat recommendations, so I really don’t get what they were thinking.

I am it doubting the need for disruption, but COMP is pretty much supporting a plain vanilla agent model, as well as Z actually when you take out the I-buying part. the only disruption here is RDFN. Both RDFN and Z are now betting the farm on ibuying, which to me seems like poor low ROE business model. make a little money when the market is strong, lose a lot when the market turns sour. Another my cup of tea. I also think that once those guys really get big in ibuying, there is going to be a lot of scrutiny on cornering the markets, but I doubt we ever get that far in the near term future.

P/S=1 is a b it misleading, because a lot of revenues are essentially a pass through expense. You should look at a gross margin multiple when comparing this with high margin (~80%) software business. COMP margins are more in the 20% ballpark. If interested, The MF Industryfocus podcast has discussed COMP in a very recent episode.

Instead of looking at the Fed "printing" money, watch the treasury spending money. I learned that from you @wabuffo.

I think the MF Stockadvisor and Rulebreakers are similar and have a good track record over the long run. Despite their cringeworthy marketing, I find some of their thinking very insightful. David Gartner had a great talk hosted by Microcapclub, which you can find on youtube for example. it is also very cheap, they have a promo sometimes where you can get 2 years for $99 with Amex (which is what I did).

We dodged a few bullets but there is also a Powell speaking at 2PM today.

Well, if Xi goes full Mao tse-Tung, we can not just say our Chinese stocks bye bye, but Apple and other stocks supplying into China will see a 50%+ drawdowns and the resource sector will be a black hole much bigger and way longer than for the Great Recession. It will be great for us long term because China will be set back 20 years at least and nobody can challenge the US for a long time to come. I don’t think it will come to this, but nonsensical things can happen when a dictator tries to secure his position to the detriment of everyone else.

https://nypost.com/2021/01/31/jordan-peterson-says-he-was-suicidal-addicted-to-benzos/ LOL. Do as I say, not as I do. America is addicted to self help gurus. You can save yourself the effort and just use some common sense instead.

Well, Kuppy is always looking for adventures. He moves from one adventure to the next one quickly. Some work out nicely, others not so much. As for the inflation , he could well be right, but I am not convinced that this is a given outcome. What we are seeing in my opinion is that the COVID demand and ruhen supply shock is causing crazy ripple effects through supply and manufacturing chains that travel at different speed and hit at different times. We have seen toilet paper, disinfectants, lumber, iron ore, semiconductors, cars, housing. In each of those, we have seen a demand collapse followed by resulting demand and prices spikes. Some of those have quickly reversed already and I expect most of those that are still surging will do the same. I think we will see another one most likely with natural gas this winter, bit it will also be short lived. We may end up on a permanently higher price level, but I could also see a deflationary case where absence of stimulus causes a surplus and falling prices. I think it is very hard to predict a definite outcome here, there are just too many factors at play here to come to a deterministic outcome.

So what else will crack when China's real estate boom cracks: $CAT (same for Komatsu, Hitachi), Copper, Steel, Iron ore (already in process), crude (?) Aluminum etc. Concrete demand will certainly fall as well, but that is mostly produced local. I don't think much lumber is used directly in construction in China, but I know that China is a significant lumber importer.

Sold remainder of my Vivendi VIVHY today. Worked out better than expected, more than a double.

I stopped right at " STOP DRINKING ALCOHOL"

You need to install one of these on your roof:

They actually published their AR in OTCmarkets. Did they get cold feet?

Little adds in LMT, FISV, ATVI, BTI and VTRS. New position in MXCT (MoatslikeKodak introduced this biotech / platform company on Twitter). (I bought some shares when he first posted about MXCT a few weeks ago, but sold them when they run up)

I would be a bit concerned about getting mini-9/11 plane crashes in buildings every couple of days when we have flying taxis. There is also bigger issues with engine failures. I think flying short haul mass transportation might eventually come, but it is a long way off.

LOL re Berlin. I dimly recall they did this before from 1948-1990. It didn't work out that well. The DDR & East Berlin actually had quite a substantial housing shortage and while the rents were cheap, you couldn't expect the toilets to work.