Spekulatius

Good point, but it depends on how much they reinvested in the business. We don't know how much cash they upstreamed to Berkshire so the true return isn't known. The business definitely has been getting worse and is just breaking even basically.

It worth more, but it still a crappy purchase. $255M in pretax earnings in 2020 and $288M in 2019. 0.5% profit margins. That doesn’t suggest a good investment 20 years later. It’s immaterial in the end relative to BRK’s size, but that’s one piece of deadwood that is probably better of with another owner.

I don’t get it. If taxes are not an issue (which is the case for me, if I hold shares in an IRA) I can use the dividend to buy more shares when I think it makes sense. If the company buys back shares, I have no control over when the shares are bought back. When the company buy back shares, there are less shares outstanding and each share should be worth more. If this is done via dividends, the number of outstanding shares does not change, but I will own more shares (those bought from dividends) and it ends up having the same result for me.

Earnings were a bit ho-hum. As @gfp predicted, Geico‘s underwriting didn’t look great and neither did the rest of the insurance. Of course insurance underwriting always is lumpy. Actually, the biggest (but also immaterial ) surprise was that McLane had a small loss. I thought this business should have rebounded, but I guess they could not pass on the cost increases. Thats purchase from Walmart many years ago did not work out well overall, I think.

The dividend is just supplemental income for Prem and Management. It won’t be cut unless they are really in dire straights and it they cut, one should probably sell the stock. I don’t get how people get so hung up on a ~2% dividend. If you want to you can use it to buy more shares yourself and in any case would a 2% buyback instead of a dividend really move the needle so much? The same people would complain if management would sell shares at random times and probably causes the stock to drop.

Yes, I buy this based on multiples basically. My valuation works includes looking at FCF yield and looking at comps, Then I look at it qualitatively to make sure there are no red flags. In Qualys case, I found a fairly profitable software company operating in a niche sector with not that much competition growing in the teens. I bought it at a below 9x P/S multiple when it temporarily sold off due to some soft quarter and the long term CEO leaving to health reasons. I felt it‘s buyable but not extremely cheap, so I just bought a starter position. I actually had an opportunity to buy it even cheaper but missed the very narrow window of opportunity so just kept my small position. The way I look at it with a low teens organic grower, with a 45% return in less than a year, I got 3 years worth of growth in one year and that’s a good deal from Mr Market. If the stock had gone up just 15%, I would have kept it because I feel the intrinsic value has gone up by a similar amount, so there would have been no reason to sell in that scenario. Anyway, that’s just my operating framework.

QLYS is solid, but it looks a bit expensive for the low teens growth it has. I bought it early this year on the dip after the LT CEO left. It gained ~45% for me, so has performed better than I expected. I had it in my IRA so no tax friction either. I know, I know - let your winners run is the mantra, but I try to stick to my valuation framework and rather keep turning more rocks. In the past, I would not even have bought a stock like this, so either I have learned something, or Mr Market has been very kind. It's probably a little ,bit of both.

I agree that passing a question to his CFO would have been a good idea. His rambling doesn't really do much good and he does keep pretty coy about further buybacks. Good quarter guys!.

Sold my $QLYS. Unfortunately only a starter position.

Good quarter, but Brit insurance remains a dog it has been since 2015. In Europe, the continent of negative interest rates, the float will not bail you out either, if the CR is about 100%. Other than that, the results look pretty good to me, but I am not sure they are good enough to get the stock moving. At least hurricane season is over, so there is that.

Starters in $OPRA and $KVSB (Nextdoor SPAC) Yet another small add to $BTI.

So a 97 year old is stubborn. That's surprising.

My take is that the energy policies in the US have minimal impact on supply and demand for the next couple of years anyways. Any decisions/changes here are totally irrelevant for the near term supply situation.

I actually think that re-instituting the SALT deduction while at the same time increasing the federal tax is a no brainer for the Dems. It’s mind boggling that they haven’t done this already.

"It's about the message" <Insert Joker GIF here>

$RDFN has been more deliberate with ibuying, which I think means they will lose less money a bit later. The problem with $RDFN is that they core business does not make money, at least not yet. I think the chickens are coming to roost for all of them. This all should be somewhat positive news for traditional players in this sector.

ibuying was never worth anything but that's what pushed the stock to $200. We started out at $50. It's not about the money....the shareholder base is turning over from growth to.. well what exactly?

I also started to watch "Mare of Easttown" and it very good. Basically and Brit style crime series playing in the Philly subs. Great storyline and acting by Kate Winslet and others. Another poster here mentioned "Invasion". I also like that one. Again it's the script and the excellent acting that makes it work.

Good point that gold is anti-correlated with the USD. I expect gold to moonshot if the rest of the world loses trust in the USD. This happened to some extend in 1979/80 when gold went parabolic (Iran hostage crisis , energy crisis, and high inflation). FWIW, i have a few percent in IAU in my retirement account and regard it as a cash substitute.

I don’t think he lost his mind but he is getting increasingly hard nosed and incapable of changing his mind. Thats probably understandable for a 97 year old

MMT only really works for reserve currency cues like Euro, Yen, or USD. It does not work for third world currencies where capital flows can cause severe currency depreciation. Just look at Brazil, Turkey or Mexico. They have to stay somewhat disciplined fiscally or they’re end up like Argentina.

While this is correct, you are getting screwed if bad news comes out subsequent to selling the put and the rock falls a lot. You are also getting screwed if the stock goes straight up, since you only get the meager put premium and nothing else.

@ANP301191 What is your thesis on TTM?

Well, it may be a good bet, but it’s not a bet on rising interest rates. The bet could work or fail with raising or falling interest rates.I think it is more a bet on crude prices, capital markets (credit spreads) and supply and demand of air travel.

https://www.independent.com/2021/10/28/architect-resigns-in-protest-over-ucsb-mega-dorm/ The idea was conceived by 97-year-old billionaire-investor turned amateur-architect Charles Munger, who donated $200 million toward the project with the condition that his blueprints be followed exactly.