Spekulatius

Roughly 95% in taxable counts , ~25% in IRA’s. The difference was $LAACZ.

I think stuff like TPB could do very well. Seems like a good play to get into weed without getting into the weeds. From the tech sectors (if you call it like this), I like PINS. They have issues with user engagement but I think the changes that they do to make the platform more shop able are going to improve ARPU and the stock in some ways it cheaper than it was pre-COVID-19. TWTR is a dark horse here. - the platform has engagement but has never been able to make money. Maybe the new CEO is going to make a difference, but it’s hard to tell. For economy sensitive plays, I think car/ truck suppliers here are worth a look. They are not great business, and have been hit hard by first COVID-19 and then the semi shortage . Unlike car dealers or the car companies themselves, they have not benefited from firm pricing and truly got her short end of the stick. I expect the semis shortage to go away and the higher volumes should lead to a rebound in earnings. Inflation is a risk thing, because gross margins are thin, so even if they eat a little margin, it hurts. A but better may be some packaging plays. BERY is one I own, but have been looking at WRK as well. It seems cheap and their gross margins have been quite stable recently which indicates rational competition. As a restructuring play, like DISCK . I have a smallish to medium (for me) position , but depending on how this works out, I will make it a full position in 2022. The valuation is compelling and I think HBO and TW studios are great assets and with Malone being on board, there is a large owners who cares about the stock price I own TPB and PINS a d BERY and seriously thinking about buying some car suppliers (maybe a basket of them ) and WRK. I have decided in 2014/15 to leave the commodity space alone for the most part. I just don’t like price taker companies and have no clue where commodities are going. I have been much happier since I left this sector along. If I were to invest in something it would be behemoth like BBL which has a cost advantaged position and pays out a lot of cash and there is no cartel that determines the supply and hence price.

Congrats. What a ride.

Of his “newer” work, his “Freedom” record is by far the best. It’s pretty eclectic. Much of his records from the 80’s and later are a mixed bag.

I would sign up with Audiogon or AVS forums and read the forums and then post your question here. Way back when I bought my subwoofer etc, I used to frequent AVS forums and there was a lot of helpful material there.

I put back a lot of her catalogue on my playlist after I watched the movie “Coda” (which is a great movie). Ironically, I didn’t know the song “Both sides now” before. I was familiar with her later work “Hejira” and of course “Blue” and others . Many of songs are pure genius and there really is no one quite like it.

@boilermaker75 Oh man, this sound like fun. They are a bit stiffer and the voices aren’t as crisp as they were in younger years, but these grandpas are still rocking. I am a big fan of Pete Townshends solo work. The record “ White city” is one I like and used to play often. It’s got a sharp bite but also tunes that stay with you. Back on my playlist it is:

@SharperDingaan Got to love folk music for stock market investors. I put Great big Sea in my playlist.

I was referring to politicians and government officials. Yes you are right, Hayek work has been influential. The time for this was really in the 80’s and 90’s, I think. Now we see some backlash, because a lot of people who vote thinks it has not benefited them. These economic theories only work if enough people see the benefit and believe in them. It feels like many people and decision makers believe in MMT now and it’s very convenient too.

^ Well, 7% since 1973 are a disaster though. The hurdle rate should be equal to the returns from an index fund during the same timeframe. An online calculator I found states that the return for the SP500 since 1973 were 11.5% with dividends. EDIT: I see he compared this with the MSCI world index, but most stocks are US listings, so SP500 would have been more adequate. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

Buffett should have written back that he does not own Precision Castports.

For context, this book was written during WW2 when all the major economies were under total state control (war economy). Hayek is and economist of the Austrian school, maybe the main proponent even. The Austrian school is a funny thing , it sounds reasonable and pure, but no country or government has practiced their teachings ever as far as I know. So in a way it is irrelevant for the practitioner.

This quasi insider trading is the least of the problem. Most politicians are too dumb to use the insider info anyways, so I guess most money is made through information leakage to people who do. Remember the Republican politician who bought Dupont after the infamous briefing regarding COVID-19 meeting in January/February 2020? I guess people are pissed about Nancy trades because she is smart enough to make money unlike others. Anyways, this robbery in broad daylight is peanuts relative to the lobbying and politicians doing consulting after “retirement”. This is the bigger issue as they are selling out public interest to whoever pays best.

@Aurel Ry Cooder is awesome. One of the most underrated guitar players in the R&B genre. Was playing some tracks from my favorite French hottie Charlotte Gainbrough for my workout today: This is the title track from the IRM record.

Ok, my first one - two English folk singers (fits into the season): Kate Rusby (she has many songs and records) this is one of the better known one: Ruth Notman (very distinctive voice):

Here is your chance to let everyone know what you are listening to. Obscure or lesser known artist / record preferred but it does matter. Post it here and let us hear it too.

WSB has a meme for that as well:

LOL:

Apple is the one Fang that is likely to get singled out from the herd first. Valuation is pretty high for the growth you are getting and I suspect it is mostly buybacks keeping the stock price high. No know against the business but it looks like a single digit organic grower going forward. Trading at ~7.5x revenues and 26 EBIT seems pretty rich for what you get.

LOL, this is the crackerjack drug junky who gives advice on how to live your live. Apparently he also tries to cancel the left, so no surprise the left does try the same to him. Basically, he states he fights against identity politics and then he participates in identity politics warfare himself. Here is his latest: https://www.newsweek.com/jordan-peterson-refuses-justin-trudeaus-covid-booster-plea-youd-have-kill-me-first-1663204 I have no idea about his lectures on this topic. I can only suggest to read the original and form your own opinion. Solzhenitsyns books speak quite well for themselves.

@Gregmal, if you short Fangs or buy puts on them, you might as well short the indexes or buy puts. QQQ has liquid options and would probably be the best vehicle to do so. I don’t think the option on individual names are cheaper than options on the QQQ either.

The stuff that upsets the market is the stuff that nobody (or at least the consensus ) isn’t expecting. I don’t think anything COVID-19 related is going to impact the market a lot. COVID-19 was an unknown risk with a huge right tail and it tanked the market, but now it’s a known variable and Won’t do much. Some stuff that might cause trouble is politically unrest in the US, China going rogue on Taiwan etc, Chinese property markets blowing up ( creates a huge issue for many commodities and financial contagion that may go beyond China) or more likely something that haven’t been thought much about at all.

I bought some Jan. 2023 $50 Strike KWEB calls. Betting on a rebound for Chinese Internet stocks.

I signed up as well. There is nothing like this at this price point. It’s the first thing I use when I look at an investment for a quick scan. Amazing time saver.

Actually,I think the reason why office is in the doldrums is because many (including the c-suite) don’t want to go back. If you live in nice home in the suburbs with a family, your quality of live goes up, if you are working from home. The 2 h + commute saved alone makes sure of it. Its a bit different if you are the little grunt just getting started and need the Acknowledgment and the occasional help, which is much less likely over zoom etc. But those grunts don’t make the decisions. I think it will take a while to get office back.