Spekulatius

This crash is certainly faster. As far as worse, I guess we will see.

Added a bit of RHM.DE. I liked it at ~70€, so it ought to be a good buy at 43€ and change.

Great idea. I would love for Trump to be “sheltered in place”. The sooner the better :-) Yes, with an orange suit to match his skin color.

It’s not a bad idea because to the best of my limited knowledge, the companies LT prospect won’t be impaired by the Covid-19 although short term earnings may suffer. I just don’t think the price is all that attractive. this thing hasn’t even seen its late 2018 lows yet and thr prospect are way worse than they were back then. Still being reasonably sure of no lasting impairment is worth something. We will see a lot of stocks going to zero in the next 12 month.

Sold my TRV into the late surge yesterday - trade was flat. Sold WAB at smallish loss.

Not a 100 bagger, but I like PINS. Next revenue numbers may be bad, but I think user engagement will increase. They have plenty cash and I like management.

Germany has been late to the game , partly because health decisions are made by states, but the Hammer came down this weekend. Based on what I am hearing (partly from my parents) compliance is pretty good also there is a lot of bitching by some. So far e have been ~7k cases, but the hospital system is holding up and there are few death so so. I think Italy hit the skids once they were at 10k cases, but I think Germany has more capacity (larger Population size too), so with a little luck it can avert disaster. It’s about 1 week behind Italy in terms of time scale. * Edit - 8K cases.

This is incorrect, and dangerous thinking. It is true: accurate information is a critical factor, but it is not possible for humans to obtain such early in these viral outbreaks. The pandemic response is warranted - the precautionary principle is the only guide that would ensure the survival of the species. In these situations, you don't need accurate knowledge of the probabilities in order to know what to do. Our emotions and stress are wiser guide than our intelligence in deciding how to react. Strongly agree with this. That's how the precautionary principle works. When there is wide uncertainty with a lot at stake, you err on the side of taking things seriously and overreacting. I would have thought more people on this board would be fans of the margin of safety, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ By the way, I haven't been paying attention to the US election. Did Andrew Yang win? I hear the US Gov't is handing out cash now. Yes Andrew Young (UBI), Liz Warren (student loan interest rates forgiven) won, Bernie (Medicare for all) is next. It’s free for all, Airlines, Cruise lines are already fed in the soup line. Shale and Energy is begging. I guess the lobbyists for all the industries are working overtime. Clearly, we have an extraordinary economic situation, but it is still surprising to see much more government intervention than in countries that are called socialist here. I’d be more in favor of something that helps individuals, if we have learned anything from the GFC it should have been that.

ZIRP is very sticky and will not be over in 6 or 12 month. I think it’s more like a one way road.

I hear bats make good eating. Taste like chicken. I’d probably go for squirrels first. I do have a lot of bats flying around my house in warm summer evenings, but I think hunting them would require a shotgun with a night scope. One acquaintance from our town told me that gun and ammo are sold out. I guess Dick’s sporting is missing out on some revenues.

This is incorrect, and dangerous thinking. It is true: accurate information is a critical factor, but it is not possible for humans to obtain such early in these viral outbreaks. The pandemic response is warranted - the precautionary principle is the only guide that would ensure the survival of the species. In these situations, you don't need accurate knowledge of the probabilities in order to know what to do. Our emotions and stress are wiser guide than our intelligence in deciding how to react. I agree. There is definitely a chance that we are overreacting , but in the absence of good information, what is the alternative? Personally, I think we are probably under reacting to the changes as a whole. There are large parts of the population that act as if nothing has happened. I have in my personal circle (work colleagues, neighbors) a lot of folks who are totally misinformed and totally underestimate the severity of the situation, both in terms of the epidemics as well as the economic consequences. I actually think that the latter one is what is going to take much more time. I live and work in a pretty rural area, so that perhaps why. Other than supermarket shelves being empty, people here have not seen much change yet. Even my wife working at hospitals noticed so far that it is quite (quieter than usual, because they moved many patient out to make space). I am sure this will change quickly. If you like anecdotes, We have acquaintances who went shopping for a truck this weekend in Boston. I also had a colleague coming in this AM he believed there are only 400 infections in the US. he was surprised when I told him that this is probably the official number for MA alone today. I think the collective group here is aware that the Titanic hit an iceberg, but a lot of people believe this is actually all but media hysteria, or just don’t care about the news.

Seems like a good low risk bet, I wouldn’t put too much into forward multiples, as they sure will come down though. I do agree that V and MA are probably the quickest to bounce back.

“I’d rate it a 10,” Trump said at a White House press briefing Monday when asked by a reporter how he would rate his response to the pandemic. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/487883-trump-gives-himself-10-out-of-10-on-coronavirus-response I gave it a 9/10 for different reasons though. Turned it off after 3 minutes so I am glad to hear that it got a bit more substantial as the briefing progressed.

Lurker for years, my first post on this forum. I had the sae thing in late January. Extreme stomach discomfort that started quite suddenly leading to bouts of vomiting. I couldn't even drive myself back home without puking into a bag. The stomach discomfort got better in 24 hours (mild fever also went away). Then the coughing started which later days. I'd wake up at nights to cough for few minutes each time. Chest tightness also began. I'm a lot better now, but my chest tightness isn't fully gone. If I fully relax my body I can feel a tiny bit of resistance to talking in a whole breath of air. I also have asthma and using my inhaler helped! CorpRaider, keep hope and stay happy. Positivity helps the immune system. Thank God for Netflix. I watched a ton of comedy when I was going through the bug, whatever it was. Stay hydrated!! I never considered Corona seriously but it does look like the symptoms are correlated. Now if there was community transmission in late January, just imagine how off we are with the denominator. I've been thinking about this a lot lately. The hard thing with exponentials is that it's easy to be way off if we are even slightly off in any parameter. What if we are wrong on the start date by a couple of weeks or so? Orthopa's anecdotes and line of thought seems reasonable to me. This might be neither the flu nor COVID-19. It happens quite a bit that viral infections are diagnosed (by exclusion?) and it tests negative for flu. My son years ago had periodic spouts of sickness we could never get to the bottom of. Sometimes, it was just a stomach flu (vomiting), sometimes it was high fever (so high they we went to the ICU with him because were scared) and always tested negative for flu. These period spouts of virus infection went away by itself thankfully as he grow older. I am not a doctor, so don’t claim to know much, but seem seems to be quite often viral infections around they don’t seem to test positive for flu. Anyways, good luck and hopefully you feel better. Even if its’s just a stomach flu it’s no fun, I had my fair shares of those way back,

I listened to first 3 minutes of today’s news conference from the WH. I couldn’t stop laughing. He talks about incredible things happening with the virus spreading and we all come together for a big celebration. WTF? Who wrote his speeches thr Monty Python troupe? It’s basically Saturday night life....

No issues for my with IB. I use my iPhone and iPad. I do have issues with Fidelity with the website getting unresponsive sometimes.

I kind of agree, but I think the time is 15:30pm when the mindless algos set in. I bet Renaissance Tech makes a fortune in this market.

TRV and PINS

No Forrest Trump run today apparently.

@chrispy I would say 15x earnings is what you paid in similar circumstances in the past. Perhaps adjust for cash. For an “extinction level event”, I don’t think the market is doing too badly actually. It’s just back to where it was before Trump goosed it up on Friday 15:30PM, give or take.

Hitting the bottle early today? I think after noon is social acceptable but I usually start with lighter fare.

Or the government should stop coddling everyone and let reality play out the way it should? If this was a run-of-the-mill recession, then I would agree with your mentality/statement. We should let the market wring out the excesses via bankruptcy. However, the COVID-19 pandemic layers on an added and unique issue. In the absence of some sort of paycheck (fiscal stimulus) coming from the guarantor of last resort (e.g. the Federal Gov), one of two things will happen: 1. People are not going to stay home because they need $$$ to put food on the table, and this pandemic will be far worse. And it will crush our hospital system, leading to additional mortality from other treatable illnesses that can't find space/time at the hospital. 2. People will stay home, businesses will go bankrupt in a truly large scale (taking CRE with it), and we will end up with a depression that takes decades to dig out of. The idea of fiscal stimulus, and monetary stimulus, bothers me - I don't like it for a lot of reasons. But if some fiscal stimulus is needed, I'd much rather see that go directly into the pockets of a waitress trying to make ends meet, rather than a financial institution via a bail-out. And in this crisis, it is time to "Go Big or Go Home" with the fiscal stimulus. Trump missed the boat to manage this crisis 2 months ago, and with every passing day, the cost of mitigation grows ever larger. I think the reason that this will be worse than a run of the mill recession is due to previous coddling. Look at what the market did during the Spanish flu issue. Not this. Note that WW1 was won by the allies by the time the Spanish flue became an issue. this lifted a huge burden from the economy (and created new issues) that overshadowed the Spanish flu impact. QE doesnt help individuals, it helps institutions. Lower interest rates help institutions much more than individuals. Instead of helping the airlines, we should think about helping their employees for example. Does AAL really deserve help, the way they managed their capital structure? They rolled the dice adding huge amount of debt so I don’t see a problem letting them restructure.

Interesting - I see more talk about bailouts and government interventions here than I see in discussions in Germany. Market crashing and everyone is turning into Bernie. We may get UBI and Medicare for all and nobody is going to blink. Not saying it is right or wrong, but it is surprising to me.

Isn't that called food panda? I got some tonight. Yes, you can get delivery in some areas, but not where I live. I propose really to encourage the use and subsidize it, plus expand it where it is not available yet. I think even giving away food for free would make sense.

In a crisis, always go with the mighty US$.