Spekulatius

Skilled workers shouldn’t be a problem. I do agree it’s the idea time to do infrastructure, with resources being idle otherwise. That’s how the Golden Gate bridge and the Hoover damn was build during the Great Depression.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming. As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement. We will create makeshift hospitals. And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare. Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world. It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. Change is inevitable. You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you don’t think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60’s impacted the future of this city. It’s naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee.

Yes, it seem that Washington state is under control for now. Hopefully it stays that way. Sometimes it actually is good to be hit first. I also think in Washington’s case, the governor did a good job, but I think part of it is just luck too. Social distancing is rally hard in NYC as well, it’s way easier in less densely populated areas. The other worrying hotspots are Florida, New Orleans and I believe Washington DC as well.

It will be interesting to see how it works. Something they works in one country, may not work in another. Sweden has a good health care system and the people in general are way healthier than most other countries including the US (much lower rates for asthma and obesity compared to the US or Germany example) While they are taking some risk, the Swedes are also considered responsible so if the government brings the hammer down, they will probably see pretty good compliance. I think a lot can be learned how each country approaches this and how they do, but it is difficult to compare this directly and conclude what works in one country will work in another as well without adjustments. Italy and Spain are socioeconomic and cultural similar and have a similar outcome in this epidemic for example.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know... Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes. Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so. Maybe if you get a camera crew he will show up at Elmhurst? Everyone looks forward to Coronacrisis season two this fall?

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. I think it is crucial to keep the timeline to reopen the economy as short as possible and in order for that to happen, new infection rates will need to come down. Well now pretty much the consensus seems to be that it'll be a recession. But consider that this is a moving average. A couple of weeks ago most ppl thought we weren't even gonna go in a recession. I was probably among them. Now I don't see how we don't even get a normal recession even under the best circumstances when we open. A drop in durable goods. Think about it, you went through a layoff, it's a freaking virus, you don't know if it comes back again or not, whether you get laid off again or not. Are you gonna go out and buy a new car or washing machine? My guess is that for a lot the answer is no. So a recession. I'd like to add that we recently haven't been doing very well with the recessions. So let's say that the best case scenario is we have a 2001. Sure! But honestly 2001 didn't feel that freaking good. There is no way we are going to avoid a recession. The Economic numbers this quarter and next will probably be the worst on record. Futures down 1.4% so far. Not too bad.

Someone should tell him what the Justice Department is actually for? I don't know... Alternatively, he could visit The Elmhurst hospital and don the PPE, mask etc and get an first hand idea how it works and where the stuff goes. Combine this with what I hear from my wife, it’s quite something. Did the US ever send soldiers to war telling them to count the bullets? I don’t think so.

Potus now talks in the WH press conference to find out where all these masks go in NYC. Are they going though the back door? Someone should investigate :o Literally his words.

What news from Europe has been "not so good"? Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe? What stat in particular doesn't look good? Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly. I agree. While Europe has flattened , the US is showing exponential growth that is going to take weeks to break. What are you guys talking about? I've attached Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK. Aside from Italy they look pretty fucking exponential to me. Italy has had a a China style quarantine for a couple of weeks now. No more growth at all? Seriously? The numbers of newly infected/day has been stagnant at ~6k people daily in Italy for example. That actually is progress. Spain is still get worse, but the rate of growth has leveled off. Not great by any means but better then exponential growth.

Interesting example of news Priorities for a NYC newspaper at a day when POTUS thing was about sealing of the great NYC area:

So, my wife went to work out one of the three hospital she’s works for yesterday and they told her that the surgical mask shall be worn for 5 shifts before getting discarded. This is a surgical mask, not even the better N95’s that are handed out as PPE. Unbelievable!. If you ever worn a surgical mask (I Have worn similar ones in clean rooms) , you know it’s not going last 5 shifts. This particular hospital is just at the beginning as first patients just rolled in the newly rigged up Covid floor (it’s correctly named droplet control floor but everyone calls it the former). Her boss told her at the beginning not work without proper PPE which is provided by the hospital. She doesn’t work technically fo the hospital since she is working for a company which is a contractor for specialty care (dialysis). Things are awfully tight when it’s just beginning. I don’t like the choices she has to make.

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. I think it is crucial to keep the timeline to reopen the economy as short as possible and in order for that to happen, new infection rates will need to come down.

What news from Europe has been "not so good"? Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe? What stat in particular doesn't look good? Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly. I agree. While Europe has flattened , the US is showing exponential growth that is going to take weeks to break.

We have got a couple more hours until the futures open - anyone want to make a guess which way? I think it’s down, possibly limit down. Those who still work on Wall Street are probably in their helicopters or stretch limos and get out.

I agree. The “it’s just a flu” crowd should be thinning out by now. 100-200k dead dead is higher than the number in the model I posted.

For defense companies, the pensions are paid by the tax payers. The costs are rolled into the contracts.

Sees candy is lousy chocolate. That’s why they never could expand outside of California. Their moat is habitual (which is a strong moat actually) , but they can’t expand. Lindt on the other hand has a true worldwide franchise and moat around chocolate. Since I went low carb, I am eating 86% cocoa chocolate with my cappuccinos. I also like Ghiradelli‘s (which is owned by Lindt, I believe). Coke is out for me. I drank it from time to time (diet) but stopped years ago. I also think it’s habitual.

The Situation is hopeless, but not serious. Die Lage ist hoffnungslos, aber nicht ernst. (Bonmot from Vienna, around WW1)

I mean could we ever really know if the bullet killed the man, or if he happened to die from complications of hypertension just as the bullet entered his skull? Causation can be tricky after all, and we should study it further before deciding conclusively! M. Why would anyone assume the hole in the head was caused by the gun going off? People are always jumping to conclusions. The liberal media has brainwashed everyone. The real question that everyone is waiting for, did this person has covid-19? If he did, he obviously died from it. In real life, things are not so simple and binary. In many cases, there's the immediate cause of death, the proximate causes in the chain of events and also contributing factors. When Newton sat under a tree, he could have concluded that the reason (cause) the apple fell was a gust of wind and one could argue, under a certain framework, that this would have been the right conclusion. I was not familiar with the US death certificate but the model is quite universal: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf Personal note: One can get used to see people dying, to some degree and depending on the person, but filling out this form requires to evaluate the person (corpse) to confirm the death, an act that cannot ever become routine, at least from my perspective. Why is this relevant for CV and investment implications? Individual death is dramatic by definition but this post is about investment implications. In a cold and actuarial way, the excess mortality that will be caused by the CV will rise but will likely not cause a large visible outlier curve, especially if seen from a long term perspective, although there will be a certain amount of concentration of events in the short term with visible consequences given the relative lack of spare capacity inherent to most health care systems. In comparison to the Spanish flu for instance, the economic impact of the virus itself would be moderate and short term in nature. However, the investment and cost related to mitigation have been and will be very large (one may agree or not with this social 'investment' and how the NPV is calculated but I guess it's the underlying question). https://www.nber.org/papers/w26866.pdf "There is clearly a difficult tradeoff here concerning lives versus material goods, with very little discussion about how this tradeoff should be assessed and acted upon." Obviously, My example is extreme, but I want to make a point of the difference between a chronic and acute conditions, where the letter is probably the cause of death or is it caused leading cause? The question about the cost to keep the containment up is a Real one. So far, people have only seen the epidemic numbers (infection rates, death rates), but not the economic ones. Nobody has added up cost of the lockdown either and how impacts the future. It’s clear we will get higher taxes from this, because it is truly a war every war that I know of has lead to higher taxes, often much higher taxes. Once the Virus infection rate start to fall, which hopefully will be these questions and economic tradeoffs will have to be decided. My guess is by May will will have decide on economic economic impact vs saving lives. If we can’t get the disease under control by then, goodnight all. There will be flareups when the open the Economy for a while, it will be a whack a mole game, until we have a vaccine. I wonder about the anti vaccers....

I like GD and bought some, averaging down. Sold it after the bounce on Thursday. Good business and Uncle Sam will pay the bills. I also think the corporate Jet business may actually benefit longer term because the upper crust will avoid flying with airlines for fear of infections and because so many flights will remain cancelled. short term there will be cancellations, but they have a huge backlog. I don’t think Uncle Sam will cancels nuclear submarines and these types of things. If anything, the epidemics will increase international tensions. I also like BAESY, same idea. I Buy them back on retrenchments.

So if I shoot a bullet through the head of a fellow with hypertension, the cause of death is: 1) bullet wound 2) Hypertension 3) Hard to tell

Human ingenuity at work.

Hmm, time to rewatch escape from NY? Snake Plissken had some great one liners...

It is idiotic to announce a potential quarantine before doing it. It creates nothing but a mass hysteria. If you need to quarantine, quarantine, but don’t say talk bout it before. Grossly incompetent.