Spekulatius

One mans experience is not the majority’s. This is a bit fear “mongerish” and covertly political. My uncle a 65 year old brick layer who has had two back surgeries, one knee replacement, a heart stent and Rheumatoid Arthritis for the past 10 years has covid last month. Kicked it in 6 days with no lasting effects (known to him). Lost his taste and smell and had a migraine most of the time. He was a checkbox for many co-morbidities but seemingly wasn’t phased. I guess the scariest part is there is no way to know how it will affect you personally. If you like anectodes, my wife’s friend in law family of 7 (multi generation Chinese) got Covid. All seven tested positive, the mother (in her 70‘s) is in ICU and daughter ( late 30‘s) was found dead in her bed in the morning. She was seemingly fine the day before and never showed any serious symptoms or was admitted to the hospital. She had no known risk factors. These things happen - not that frequently, but they do. It‘s a bit like Russian roulette - most of the time nothing happens, but when it does, it can kill you.

Again, yo use the 1999 narrative, I was employed by one of those “” companies (via acquisition) when people were gambling in their 401k with company stock. I saw one guy on his PC back then who had a $2M balance and was up 200k one day. He was a tech who had been with the company for a while and collected a lot of stock via profit sharing and then moved more in. My “Rulebreaker” company ended up losing 98% of its value when the telecom boom fell apart and that fellow went back to work as a cashier 2 years after “retiring” from his job. The higher up managers were mostly smarter and bought nice houses and vineyards etc from their gains.

I am sure it all gets figured out, but time is of essence. For example just glimpsing to the data, it seems like a there is a huge gap between the doses supplied to the states to those administered. the does supplied seem tos Cale with population (which makes sense), but doses administered / does supplied go from ~36% ( California) to almost 80% (the Dakotas). My own state (MA) is at the bottom to with ~43%. It seems to that the states at the bottom are messing around too much with complex rules and not enough to actually get the vaccine in the people. In my opinion, the overarching principle should be to “KEEP THE LINE MOVING”. So if one county, hospital or state can’t administer the doses they have on hand, then send it to the next county, hospital or state who can, to make sure no time is wasted.

I found this episode from the Angel podcast pretty good. The guest talks about how the early days at AMZN and FB felt like.

Relative valuation sucks. What you want is to see where you are vs your potential. Right now, "49% of the shots distributed to states have been administered", and more shots could probably have been available if the Feds had taken up Pfizer's offer last summer. Yes, relative valuation sucks, but it also provides perspective. FWIW, I looked at Canada and the vaccination rate is at ~2% on part with Germany and far behind the USA.hat is going on there? I know what is going on in Europe. 1) Europe has decided to do the vaccination purchase on an EU basis, but their ordered only 250M doses which is not enough for everyone in Europe obviously. 2) Europe has decided to give no emergency authorization for any vaccine. Which probably causes a 1-2 month delay. So far only BioNtech/Pfizer is approved , Moderna is due soon and Astra has 1-2 month more to go. The reason why the UK has higher vaccination is because they have more vaccines available (they approved 3 vaccines already) so they have more supplies. So everything considered Operation Warp speed actually has done a better job than many other countries, including Canada. I am sure it could be better and faster, but here we are. What I am hoping is that daily vaccination rates go up now after the administration change and that better focus helps to get this done as quickly as possible, because we need to get to herd immunity levels in summer or we are looking at another sucky winter.

I am old enough to remember Anaconda copper trading on the NYSE. If I remember correctly it was bought up by an oil company ( One of the seven sisters ).

In terms of Vaccine rollout, the US doesn't look that bad actually. USA 5% vaccinated Germany ~2% UK ~8% France ~1% Israel: ~38% The reason why Europe is so far behind is lack of vaccines. they have only the BioNtech/Pfizer vaccine approved while the UK as Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca approved. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I expect we muddle through with a bit more guidance from the top. Health is a state matter and I don’t think Biden is going to mess with this much. In my opinion, Biden‘s main job is now getting the vaccine in as many arms as quickly as possible and provide the state the resources to keep essential parts like schools open (testing access and funding is safety measures is essential) and hospitals running. In the US, there's not a great many valuable options at this stage. As of today, the US is up to 18 million vaccinated, and that is increasing by about 1 million per day. There are about 50 million Americans age 65 or higher, so by about February 21st, the overwhelming majority of them should have had the opportunity to get a vaccination if they want one. That group alone is about half of the hospitalizations and more than 80% of the deaths. The tone about covid will change significantly by some time in March when the deaths virtually stop and the hospitals begin to empty. The most valuable thing that the president could do at this time would be to try to convince the seniors to lock themselves down for a few weeks until their turn for a vaccination comes. SJ Seniors above 65 will not be vaccinated completely by late February , not even close. You are assuming that all the vaccines go to seniors for example, but that’s not the case. Health care workers come first and then several other groups (first responders etc, military, state & country workers). The order of vaccination again differs from state to state. At the current rate, I would guess that a 65 year old would get vaccinated perhaps in Summer. I personally like the rule to have health care workers on the front lines first, then people over 80, then 65 or etc. that’s what is basically happening in Germany I think, although there, the rollout is even slower than in the US. Complex rules ar likely counterproductive and some seem outright ridicolous. For example in my state, there is a discussion to add smoking as pre-existing condition which would prioritize them over non-smokers. Really? I guess I should start smoking a cigarette a day to become eligible quicker.

Yay to politics being gone and I look cautiously forward to what the new site has to offer.

I expect we muddle through with a bit more guidance from the top. Health is a state matter and I don’t think Biden is going to mess with this much. In my opinion, Biden‘s main job is now getting the vaccine in as many arms as quickly as possible and provide the state the resources to keep essential parts like schools open (testing access and funding is safety measures is essential) and hospitals running.

Just resold those FSLY shares for $103.10 and put more into BRKB and BAM. The volatility in stocks like FSLY is mind boggling. It is probably a good idea to move into safety like FSLY but I can understand if someone who bought this much lower just continues to hold.

I think it was Peter Thiel who wittily replied to the question about "Is it 1999 again?" if it refers the beginning of 1999 or the end? Smart reply, because the Nasdaq index went up ~85% in 1999. The problem with bubbles is timing, since nobody knows how big they can become and when they will pop.

I know quite a few people who’s retirement got destroyed in the 2001 crash and things did not come back. other were left with huge phantom gains on company stock that they never realized but still had to pay taxes on. One gal I knew who got rich for 6 month from Cisco stock lost her house this way. History’s almost never repeats itself , but it can rhyme. Besides the monetary there are things that can happen that nobody’s does foresee - like the epidemic this year. Well, we turned out to be fine, but could have been quite different. And true to that, it’s the truck that you don’t see coming that runs you over. Another thing to consider is that adjustment happen quicker than they used to. The trading is partly to blame although we did have a swift crash in 1987 before daydreaming became a thing as well. One thing that I try to do is look at everything I own through the eyes of reflexivity and path dependency. I want to own things that don’t depend on capital markets working well for example. Perhaps the Fed now has backstopped everything, but I don’t think it will last forever.

I think it is a curse especially if you take the analogy too far. Every crash or bubble has its own fingerprint and while some of what we have today is similar than in 1999, it is not quite the same. For example in 1999, old economy quality mid and small cap stocks were very cheap while stocks that were cheap in this crash were of much lower quality for the most part. Back then we had higher interest rates and credit stress, while we now have the Fed intervening to reduce all credit stress and low interest rates just to name a few. Some of the excesses seem the same though. I knew quite a few folks who blew up their portfolio and retirement accounts in 1999 and I think we will the same thing happening now. You can only neglect fundamentals so long and by definition not everyone can sell out before the crash because the sellout is the crash.

I did some more research on this topic and this is what I found: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kzf0jz/when_boomers_are_proud_of_their_2020_gains/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

It wasn't four days. And the guy's name was Jack Ma. ::) Cats taste like rabbits, I have heard. At least that’s what my grandpa told me, based on his culinarily experiences in WW2.

Recent buys. FB, starters in VMW and RNR. RNR is a reinsurer that has me interested because they have one of the best underwriting records of al, peers and they also manage some third party/ hybrid vehicles. VMW is growth at a reasonable price.

Is there any difference between FNMAS and FNMAT other than higher liquidity for FNMAS?

The bubble is not just in story stocks - Look at Deere for example. It is a triple from the 2020 lows, trades st 20x EBITDA and has a stagnating top line. There are many others like this too.

Always liked the idea of owning SRE given the TX utility and exposure to LNG / Mexico growth stories, but never did more than a superficial look due to the CA wildfire noise. Has that been addressed at this point in the wake of PG&E? How do you get comfortable? SRE never had an issue that caused a wildfire. EIX had some smaller issues but never to the scale of PCG. SRE is the best run of the three (by far) then EIX and last PCG.

Bought FB and SRE today. SRE is a well managed utility that I have bought a few times over the year. It trades a t the lower end of its historical valuation range and should be a good low risk trade for 10-15% upside with little risk to principle or longer term hold depending on how things develop.

There is a lot of evidence that opening the schools with precautions and social distancing protocols don’t cause much virus transmission.

Yes, recharge stations will be required, but possibly not at many as people think. For the typical guy who drives to work and back home every day, stops at the grocery store, and then drives his kids to soccer after supper, he already has plenty of battery capacity for daily use. When he gets home from the kids' soccer, he'll just plug his car in from his house electricity and he'll be ready to roll again the next morning. With this type of use as his primary pattern, his behaviour will change from stopping to buy gas once every 10 days or two weeks to instead plugging his car in overnight at home once every 3 or 4 days. The only time when range might be a problem for him will be on weekend trips out of town, or longer vacation trips. Instead of going to the gas station 25 to 40 times per year (ie, every 10 days or two weeks), he might only use a paid-recharge facility 10 or 12 times per year when he exceeds his car's range. There is, however, a group that will be dependent on paid-recharges, and that is people who are living in houses and apartments without private parking. The people currently using on-street parking cannot simply park their car in their garage or on their driveway and plug their car in overnight. In some municipalities these people who do not have private parking spot are not numerous, but in other municipalities such as Montreal, there is heavy reliance on on-street parking. With current technology that requires perhaps 30 minutes for a basic recharge, I don't view existing gas stations as a model that can shift effectively into electric. The better model would be McDonalds, Starbucks, Dunkin, etc partnering with some outfit to electrify their existing parking lot. So, if you imagine yourself taking a trip that exceeds your car's range, you've probably already driven for 4 hours and you need to take a break to drink a coffee, or eat a burger anyway. So you just plug your car in while you take your break. You probably wouldn't at all want to pull into a Shell station, plug your car in and then twiddle your thumbs for the next 30 minutes. But, all of this is a reflection of current battery capacity and current charging times....all of that could be drastically different in five years. However it evolves, the gas station/convenience stores are in a bit of long-term trouble. They make their money from the traffic of people buying gas, not from the gas itself. The price of gas is ridiculously competitive so the margins aren't great, but they just hope that you'll buy a pack of smokes, a couple of lottery tickets and a gallon of windshield washer fluid while you're stopped for gas (the margins *are* great for those items!). When they lose the traffic from the gas re-fills, are all of those convenience stores viable? I don't think so, but time will tell. SJ This is a pretty good framework. assume fewer, but longer stops reg cars and make sure it is worth it. It could see something like Cracker Barrel doing very well if they add charging stations in their parking lots, as ther restaurants are already destinations in a way. Same for McDonalds or open air shopping centers close to highway exits that offer a variety of options to keep folks entertained for the duration of the charge. Smaller standalone convenience stores may suffer loss of traffic though.

I watched Greyhound too. This is also basically an alternative history movie where all the German U-Boot commander collectively loose their mind. Tom Lasso is surprisingly good. Not a premise that interested me at all, but I heard enough good things about it from people who's taste I trust that I check it out, and both my wife and I really enjoyed it. I started to watch To. lasso. it has some classical Yankee - Brit hum out in it, but so far I like it. The Expanse season 5 is pretty good, one of the best one actually. They drop one episode every week.

I don’t think a few thousand people at riots mostly outdoors are going to do much a difference. What does a difference is what is going in people homes firmest (family/household mixing). We are seeing now the fallout from the Christmas and New Years parties which hopefully will wear off in a few weeks. Same story in other countries as well. The most important thing the administration can do is getting the vaccine rolled out as quickly as possible. There should be no amount of $ and effort spared to get it done. Even if it costs $1000 to get one person vaccinated, that would be only $340B for the entire US population, not much compared to the $900B aid packages. Foremost the vaccination directly fight the root cause, the aid packages just the symptoms.