Spekulatius

Yep, its the same one and a big tax bill coming.

Started to work on my tax return (I am always late because of a K-1) and I hate it. So my new goal is to become a billionaire so I don't have to pay taxes any more.

It is easier to keep crypto hidden and move it with you out of the country than a Monet or a Ferrari or even gold. All these things draw a lot of attention if you pack them on an airplane when you want to get out. Dont shoot the messenger, I am certainly not a laser eye guy. I am just stating that owning crypto if you live in these countries does make some sense.

Russia has wiped out investors before, so has Egypt. Investors in Argentina pretty much lost 90% over the years. Country equity market absolutely can go to zero.

@Packer16 / Bonhoeffer on Twitter provided a link to the paper on equity returns vs country and government type. I took from this that on aggregate you are not paid for the additional risk you are taking. I may remember it all wrong though and I don’t have a link either. This is not to say that sometimes these investments work out well. I do think it makes sense though because these totalitarian countries often seem very stable so it is understandable if people underestimate the risk. I really all it takes from seemingly stable to total chaos though is the dictator waking up one more ring with a certain itch to do something crazy and things go off the rails. This also applies to merging market. I think it was @PlanMaestro who said that it takes just one bad election for an emerging market country to go to chaos.

If you live in Russia right now, owning crypto is not the worst thing in the world. Pretty much everything else would have gone to hell. I bet a lot of Russian money went into crypto.

I guess one thing just leads to another. I hope to get a ride in the buggy this summer, that's all.

Its always in the middle. I do have a particular friend in mind from town ( not on this board) who complained about high gas prices when we met for some drinks lately. He just bought a lake house in NH (second home, heated with oil), a 150 HP Polaris snowmobile, a smaller one for his wife, an off road buggy that is larger than my car and of course a huge truck to haul all this around. Now he is looking at buying a boat in spring because why have a lake house, if you don't have a boat? This is all nice stuff, and he can afford it, but really complaining about high gas prices in this situation? I told him his carbon footprint is perhaps bigger than Al Gores :-). I guess I just like to travel lighter, but each it's own.

Porsche Holding - POAHY. I try to buy another slug in Europe tonight, market forces permitting.

This is true, but those trucks are largely used for other purposes and people commute in them. FWIW, I bet you can tow a boat with a Mercedes diesel car. They do it in Europe. Same with trailers. Also, all those things are big energy sucks by themselves. Instead of trailer one can do camping. There are substitutes for most things that require much less energy.

I think it's cringeworthy when people buy a truck that gets 12 miles/ gallon and then complain about high gas prices. If you have a car that gets 30-40 miles/gallon, the gas prices can go wherever they want and it doesn't matter. Those cars are also cheaper.

A bit more of this (not the car):

After what occurred in Russia, I would be much more inclined to short China. Having a dictator leading a country is not a great setup for the equity market. This is not rocket science - there are studies on this. Why jump over 10 foot hurdles when you don't have to.

If someone told me in late 2019 that we have a) a major world wide epidemic b) A European land war c) the SP500 would be up ~50% in 2022 after all this occurred... Well I would have thought this person is crazy. Yet, here we are.

Go-Betweens - Aussi Pop/Rock

My experience in China is data (mostly Suzhou, some Shanghai) but I think China is very glizzy from far away and get's shabbier as your look closer. A lot of the new buildings were very crappy build when you look closely. I was walking around one day in Suzhou because I could not haul a taxi back to the hotel and found a whole underworld of what I think were migrants living in cardboard boxes and shanties next to a bridge. I felt like I have made a wrong turn in Oakland.

Sold $RHM.DE close to ~155 Euro in my IRA. Crazy how this benefited from the Ukraine war. I bought this at ~64 Euro not so long again . I am hodling in my taxable account (bought even lower). Sometimes deep value works although the circumstances are sad in this case.

How many Taiwanese do you know? The ones I know don't think reunification is inevitable at all. They would never want to live in China. They move to the USA not China, if they can.

Spaceforce Season II is great so far. I liked Season I as well but Season II is better.

The military conflict aside, this is an interesting demonstration how owning the world's most important reserve and trade currency, controlling important elements of the financial system (SWIFT) and creating unity with other allies allows the US to use a weapon of financial mass destruction without ever firing a shot.

Sold VTRS at a loss. I decided I was wrong about this one. Y2022 EBOTDA forecast was significantly below consensus and they got way less for the biosimilar business than hoped for. I am surprised they are selling it for this price. I decided my thesis is busted. Edit: Sold LHX in my IRA's. I think it's fully valued.

@Xerxes I think he is right in terms of the Russian tactics. The Russian want to avoid too much collateral damage and they are likely trying to avoid major combat as well as going into heavy urban areas (which likely leads to heavy fighting and losses, both of their own as well as civilian). Urban combat also negates superiority in materials and technology, so as he stated, the Russian encircle cities and go around them. I also think that there is no doubt the russian are winning this war. However, then he rants about the Zelensky regime. I don't know much about the election process, but his claim is that Zelensky is illegitimate. and that's the first time I hear this. I think this guy is likely a Russian propaganda shill. It is pretty clear that there is a propaganda war fought on both sides on social media. You see stuff like the "Ghost of Kiev" fighter ace from the Ukrainian side, allegedly shooting down several Russian air planes. This is most likely made up. I think this Red pill guy is just another case of Russian disinformation on social media.

Just saw this in IBKR when I looked at my exchange rate tab. The USD.RUB pair doesn’t trade yet, apparently because they can’t open it in Asia: This is going to be interesting. First time I have seen this. Even the Turkish lira kept trading through all this craziness with Erdogan.

I am thinking of this step which essentially would freeze Russians foreign currency reserves. I don’t know if they can pull this off, but if they can, Russia is basically broke. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/02/27/background-press-call-by-a-senior-administration-official-on-imposing-additional-severe-costs-on-russia/

Why would that be?