plato1976

pwe is a turn around story how do you estimate its intrinsic value after the turn-around ?

Too many names flying around Each has a unique profile: debt level, reserve, asset quality and potential Need time to sort out No position yet

Does Lukoil have a similar or lower cost for its reserve compared with BP ? I heard BP has some of the lowest cost reserves

I am curious why suddenly everyone is comfortable with LTS 's plan ; Seems it still has no plan to deleverage, be conservative and realize value So it's just b/c it's cheap enough now ?

why is it VERY risky ? Qcom is very risky, I just sold all my holdings a few months ago

The past few months CHK has been very quiet at the divesting frontier I hope CHK can clean up its balance sheet asap and move on

As for QCOM, when do you think their patent will have a cliff ? Looks like we cannot project their current earning power into infinity b/c 2/3 of their profits are from patent fees. However, the current share price doesn't count on this either.

I have certainly been a little bit lucky this year. I feel my timing in 2013 was the best in the past 4-5 years. In fact I am still quite a newbie in investment even though I have been actively and seriously managing my own money for 8 years. Compared with many highly experienced and knowledgeable ppl in this forum, I owe my performance to one simple word: copycat . Looking backward, I may have been too conservative. I was aware of the market danger before 2008, and therefore I went into 2008 with a huge cash position and exited it unscathed. But I was way too bearish that I missed the bottom in 2009. I began to build position again in late 2009. My performance has been very mediocre in those bullish years. Looking backward, I was never caught in a crash (China in 2007, US in 2008), but my problem is I was way too pessimistic. Saying so, I feel reluctant to reduce my current cash position of 30%+ . I never systematically thought about the cash management like you guys in a scientific way although I am a scientist - I just keep a cash position large enough to make myself comfortable. I hope next time when the panic comes I will be brave and smart enough to deploy my cash - it's easier to say than to do.

40% with 1/3-1/2 in cash all the year I guess I have been too conservative But I guess I have always been very conservative never really got caught in a bear market including 2008, but never really had a stellar year (sth like 100%...) need to live with my personality

Wondering if anyone is nice enough to share a list of good posters on vic

Consumer brand , esp something you need to put into your mouth Finance - esp banks with big deposit base, and good asset management company Business service (no IBM, pls) Thoughts on XPEL and FLIR? Im not sure about the moats of both. If their moats are at least v decent then these companies are set up to gain a v nice market share of an industry that has some massive growth potential in the next 5-10 years.

wow, packer, you are my hero I hope your AIQ will continue to rise (b/c I just bought it a few days ago, believing it's still a 25% yield...)

Fairfax is hardly a performance loser this year It's still up 6% YTD, in a year its book value seriously impaired by the bbry disaster and long term bond, etc. etc.

guess overlap with the muni bond I mentioned , but not necessarily

Today 's losers can be tomorrow's winners I can think of the following losers for 2013: 1. Precious metal miners (ABX, etc.) 2. Muni Bond and Muni Bond Fund 3. Some small oil&gas corp in the U.S. and Canada what else ?

having value or not, this performance is actually quite amazing for a short only fund; however, as far as I know chanos is not short only - sometimes he uses a few longs to "hedge" his short, so that if he's really short only his perf should be worse I guess. But I agree it's not a terrible perf and shows that he does have some skills

Do we have a previous evidence for this ? "One thing is for sure. He will tell you he is bearish 3 months after he has re-positioned his fund to exploit lower prices." In my memory this guy has been pretty consistent - he's just bullish On the other hand, I never understood his strategy and how he got such an amazing return streak

What's the discount of large russian big oil like lukoil against majors in OECD countries ? If the discount is bigger than 70% I will be glad to consider it... At half of the value estimation. "I think if it’s cheap enough, you can afford more country risk or regulatory risk. It’s not complicated." CM We're all seeing the same thing here. Russia's Government is corrupt. But this doesn't mean their entire stock market is valueless. It's like investing in China where you have a Government sorely lacking in repute and virtue. There's this miasma of corruption and gross immorality in the markets. And in '04 there was PetroChina... selling at $36 billion. You could have said, the Government is a majority shareholder, this could all go wrong, and so many Chinese companies are frauds. And you'd have been right. There is a possibility of loss-- total loss. But estimate the odds for the possible outcomes. Are the odds in your favor? After you answer that I don't think you need to ask anymore questions.

So basically the long term dynamics of NG and crude oil is quite different Basically the high price will persist for crude oil

I guess what you want to discuss is the candidates that may be subject to heavy selling for tax purposes at the year end so that we can take adv of and buy some of them ?

Just wondering from an asset point of view, is PWE or LTS really much cheaper than US oil&NG corps like SD & CHK

Hi, T-bone1: What do you think about the accounting issues raised in http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2013/10/21/chesapeake-chk-is-this-really-a-long/ /Plato1976

It's so easy to find ... just search "GNCMA corner of berkshire" on google... no tip needed, btw There is no topic on that that I could find. Could you elaborate? A very quick view showed a small-cap (<$400M) company in the telecom industry (not the most loved industry right now) with a high PE but low forward PE, negative free cash flow, high (>1$B) in debt, low (<2%) margins, low ROE (<10% but growing), insider buys and a recent earnings call. What got you excited? :)

I have a term life insurance - 20 years I only need to make sure kids have enough support until they are in college

The new BV, esp. the tangible one, can go below 300USD it's virtually impossible to get there...