plato1976

and I finally decided to go indexing finally

google 's core search business is challenged in mobile how do you evaluate this impact?

If mgt is crazily good why it's at 40%? I do think the mgt made some mistakes to bet the boat on inflation Saying this, I agree LUK is cheap

I am concerned with whatever pay Facebook will provide...

concerned about the competition? what's paypal's moat? as far as valuation is concerned looks like it's a 20 sth PE stock next year w/ some growth so it's not bad Growth, good margins, decent valuation.

what attracted you into this?

why so many ppl think they are "smarter" than the silicon valley and assume the valley "should" do A instead of B is totally beyond me...

Is CNQ really a low cost producer? I think they still have a very sizable oil sand reserve and its cost is not that low The companies you've picked are the best run/lowest cost/biggest/almost biggest in the US and Canada respectively. They are probably the least levered to oil prices of any producers, due to balance sheet, and the ability (and willingness) to take advantage of the downturn by purchasing assets on the cheap. This is especially CNQ, they're taking market share by buying assets from forced sellers at distressed valuations. The longer prices stay low the bigger they'll be on the eventual upswing. If you want to look at what's happened on the downside, you should look at something other than the most stable ones. Those company's would also have the most torque to the upside, as some of them have high operating leverage and high financial leverage, which makes them a lot like a call option. (Big upside, but if oil doesn't pop they'll be worth zero) Well as an investor aren't those the characteristics you look for in companies to own? If one would like more torque as you put it why wouldn't one just buy a call option on these companies or just use margin? Why buy crappy companies? Whether XOM and CNQ are less levered to oil prices, yes to some extent, but a small one I would say. The still get oil out and get paid based on the price of oil so I don't see how oil prices don't matter a great deal for them. However my point was that a drop to $83 for WTI in 2012 caused these companies to drop to prices similar to today I don't see why in the current environment the valuations of these companies shouldn't be much lower. Unless they were trading at some 75% discount to value back in 2012 I think it's more likely that they are still overvalued at current prices. Btw, I think the crappier oil companies are overvalued too. As you say they may go to zero. I think quite a few will actually do that. I didn't like a lot of these cos even when oil prices were high. I was responding primarily to this quote: I think it is unlikely XOM and CNQ will become distressed, because if they do, a huge swath of the industry that is much crappier than them will have been bankrupt and had its operations shut down, which would support the price. Whether they will trade at distressed prices I'm not sure, but I think actual financial distress is very unlikely for those two companies. I agree that they're the type of companies one would want to own in their portfolio long term, I actually think they're the only two oil companies where I would be comfortable with a "buy and hold forever" strategy given the right entrance point. (Not current prices, which I agree are too high). However, you also said you think oil prices will rebound, and were looking for ways to profit from that. All I'm saying is that smaller and/or crappier companies have more upside leverage to oil prices.

Hi, Packer: Do you feel comfortable with the leverage of these companies?

Did we take the depreciation into consideration? You got it! You buy a bus for $198K and it provides 12% yield when you use it to show RE to Chinese RE tourists. 8)

wondering how eurobank will fare if Greece exits EURO too complex to even analyze Great list, ben. I was just looking through the Q3 report and didn't see alll that detail - where are you finding it, if you don't mind sharing? And what is the distinction between Eurobank and Eurobank properties? One thing about the Greek and Irish exposure, it makes the Blackberry investment seem positively mundane! BBRY looks a lot less scary now in any case, but do you or anyone else have some more detail about Eurobank and how badly it may have been hurt by the recent events in Greece (i.e. elections, 30% drop in stockmarket, 10-yr bond rates going from 6% to 10%? Here's what Watsa said in May 2014: “We believe that markets have already begun realizing the significant opportunities existing in the Greek market and the positive outlook of the country, on the precondition of a stable course of implementing a reform program”. I guess we'll know more about that 'stable course' in 10 days...

I don't understand why it's a positive for Swiss stocks for example, NSRGY rose a lot today (in USD)

which state do you live in?

as far as I can see most of their debts are not very long term so when the refinance their interest payment has to go up a lot if the rate increases

Packer，how big an impact will the rate hiking have on AIQ 's FCF?

why it's an opp? you believe the price will bounce back quickly?

With interest at or near history low, does anyone have the same trouble as mine on where to park the cash? Is there any investment "almost as good as cash" but earn a little bit more? I think anything that's safe enough and liquid enough for me to convert into cash in 1-3 months should be good enough I hope it's not just me... In this market I keep 30%+ cash...

so you no longer want to avg down on PWT ?

oil sand cost should be quite high how could they achieve $30?

I feel the real opportunity is coming but the key is to pick a really low cost one (absolutely needs to be lower cost than most US shale producers) without big leverage , so it can hang on long enough is LEG a candidate? Stock price was 50 percent higher than today. If I were to believe oil will be 70, I would have sold and short many of the real higher cost ones.. I thought it will stabilize in the 80s. It was wrong and paid dearly.

It's interesting to review old posts. Well, the reality is, we are not looking into $70 oil, we are looking into $60 in fact

softbank is interesting. but I think they have two headwind. One is Sprint. I am afraid they will sinking in lots of money and not sure if it can be turned around. If it cannot, it will surely cost them a lot of money before they turn the white flag. The other is their Japan telecom business - in overall weak Yen will make this business less valuable when denominated in USD (not like export oriented manufacturers I don't think telecom will benefit from weak yen).

Had a small position in SD and later switched to PWE found it's better not to switch now the question is when to add - waiting for OIL=70

Not sure about LTS but for PWE, as a bigger company it actually has less debt than SD, I also believe it has lower well cost esp. in their kernel regions, yet it's roughly the same market cap now Seems the canadian patch is cheaper than the U.S. patch...

I changed half of my SD holding to PWE today let's see if tomorrow SD will be acquired