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LC

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Everything posted by LC

  1. Re #2 You probably know this but in case you don't, if you click the "new" icon next to each thread it will take you to the oldest unread post in that thread.
  2. Also screening is just one tool in the toolbox. Sometimes it doesn't turn up obvious bargains like Apple when it was 400/share (pre-split). Cash adjusted p/e was really low but a screen wouldn't show that. That's why I use business metrics, make straightforward adjustments (excess cash, accrual vs cash flow, etc.) to find a rough multiple for the business, and then try to decide whether any "cheapness" is due to temporary or permanent issues.
  3. I really only look at screens for business metrics (margins, sales growth, etc.) and not valuation metrics. So I wake up one day and say, today I feel like reading about a company with really nice gross margins, let me go find one and see what it looks like.
  4. It's for publicity.. Net assets peaked years ago at 1,494, now at 1,177 I tend to agree. I also think getting his name/fund in front of cameras was a contributing factor in his opposition to the KO compensation package.
  5. To me that depends...what does more good, feeding 1 hungry family today or 100 hungry families in 10 years? How the heck does one even answer that? I don't know and so I try to do a little of both, I suppose.
  6. I find giving to charity helps, because it reiterates the point that SD regularly makes: money is the servant not the master. Pick a % or dollar amount to regularly donate that you can afford and stick to it, it's worked for me in terms of redefining the "value" component of value investing that goes beyond just money in a brokerage account. Pretty much the "tithing" principle that Packer mentioned...it's been part of human history for millennia because it adds value for society and for yourself.
  7. No you're not :D
  8. Good read, thx CorpRaider
  9. That's only one possible reason. Other times the parent company can be undervalued as its true earnings power emerges. The general point is that spinoffs create confusion as investors have to decide which of the parts they want. The enterprising investor can do the work and see which parts are more attractively valued.
  10. RIP... His most endearing moment (to me) was when he named his daughter Zelda. From that moment on I knew the guy was a good one.
  11. Probably in the too hard pile. It is for me, anyways. Warren B. has boatloads of cash sitting around, and meanwhile here in Amazon we have the low cost retailer of the present and future. Even if he was "right" or "wrong" about investing in Amazon 10 years ago, why doesn't he pull the trigger now? Maybe he just hates retail? Who knows! C'est la vie. Edit: i think my point is...it's annoying enough to figure out why I personally did or didn't buy something. why waste time wondering why someone else does or doesn't do something!?
  12. Hard using historical financials because the future is much more variable for these guys than the only grocery store in town.
  13. I frankly don't think legal prostitution will increase healthcare expenses. I think it will increase visibility of safe sex. It reminds me of college drinking, it's a bigger problem in the states where it's illegal than Canada where the age is 18. Also if it's legal, women will be incentivized to maintain a a STD- free status and therefore take proper precaution.
  14. My two cents is for legalization. But some things in this country take centuries to change. See minority rights, gun control, etc. Progress is slow, and I think for the case of prostitution, probably the slowest...
  15. Momentum, to me, seems like it generates capital until it loses a bunch of capital. Value seems to preserve capital.
  16. I am reading through the fifth book of the Night Watch series. Much fun! :)
  17. I'm curious how forum members conduct research on management/family owners. There have been a few threads where I wonder, "how does he know that?" For example, some family-owned company go through..."family issues", and if I see a board member post about that it makes me curious how much information is gathered. I am sure talking to ownership or management provides most of this info but I am curious if there are any other methods people feel comfortable sharing.
  18. what does the asset base look like? is accrual accounting messing with the ROIC? is cash return > wacc? any opportunities for lowering the wacc which the market may be pricing in? are margins at normalized levels or is there opportunity to expand them? just random questions to think about!
  19. Which "real problem"? I agree compared to things like the US's foreign policy feeding the military industrial complex the welfare system is a very tiny problem. But my original comment was in response to someone who mentioned single parent households. There are two major causes of single parent households, which are the primary reasons that there are a lot of them now and were not many of them say 80 years ago. 1) is the welfare system (you get more of what you subsidize) and 2) is the war on drugs. So when you are talking about single parent households as "the problem" then yes, the welfare system is a major cause of it. Sorry I was really unspecific...I was just speaking of poverty in general, not single parent households, or even poverty in the USA.
  20. take it with a grain of salt! just one story and i definitely concede the real problem is not people 'gaming' the welfare system!
  21. Heh. So, just an anecdotal story for you. My daily commute used to be the 4 train in Manhattan up thru harlem and the bronx. And it's rush hour one summer evening, and everyone is standing. The proximity to other warm bodies oppressive, everyone is exhausted and wants to get home, and there are these two spanish women, overweight, from the south bronx (based on where they got off to "go home"), and they are loudly having a conversation. The topic of which is LITERALLY how to (1) trick men into impregnating them so they can collect both welfare and child support (2) exactly how many children to have which is the optimal amount to collect the most from city/state/federal welfare programs and (3) how to use various monies given to them for the sake of their kids to buy, well, stuff (cable tv, cell phones etc). One girl was telling the other how she actually accomplished this. I mean, it was detailed and everything: the specific programs, filing processes, how long it takes to process, where to go buy things afterwards, etc. At some point I knew it wasn't just hot air. And I could not believe what I was hearing! I almost burst out laughing because it seemed so ridiculous once I knew they was completely serious. And the looks of the other passengers was equally incredulous. So maybe it's not everyone, maybe it's not a majority, maybe those were the only two people in the entire country who consciously made that choice. But to say something like "But to imply that poor people - particularly those born into poor circumstances - remain there because of conscious decisions is, in my humble opinion, either ignorant or self-serving." is in some cases factually wrong and (in my mind) frankly is a very middle/upper class thing to say! The reality is that you, and I, simply do not know the thought processes of some of these people, so we can opine all we want about why we think they are in their situation, but we really have absolutely no clue. Just my 2 cents.
  22. animals do exhibit actions higher than murder theft cheating etc. compassion, teamwork, remorse & forgiveness, as well as exclusion from social structures for violating norms...it has been documented. i'm not exactly sure what separates "us" from "the animals" (other than human's egocentric perspective...), but i doubt it's religion.
  23. This is my favorite of WB's lines. It just resonates with me, maybe because I am lazy? :) I agree with the poster who said you have to really enjoy the short term pain. It's not the worst thing in the world for your stock price to go down. It's important to remember that. Even temporary business fundamentals (see the FHCO thread). Be a real business owner, not a guy who has read all the value investing books and wants to trade stocks (albeit at a slower rate than 'traders'). What also helps me a lot is to do reading that is totally opposite of most of the reading done to invest. We read 10ks, business news, trade reports and statistics, words from 'famous' investors...that stuff can fry you out after a while! I try to, at the same time, try to read stuff completely opposite of this. I just finished the Nightwatch series, a fantasy epic set in Russia. Great series, thought provoking, easy and fun to read. Totally opposite of a 10k. But it keeps my mind from being burnt out. It makes it easier to be lethargic with respect to my portfolio because it balances me out. So that practice helps a ton. And also, is it so bad to be wrong? A lot of times people trade out of a position due to fear. Well, what's the worst that happens? As long as you won't go hungry and live on the street, what are you really worried about? Ok ok I guess that applied to me moreso than the older members here with families, kids, OPM, etc. but I think the fundamental truth that it's OK not to fear being wrong is a good thing. Just my 2 cents.
  24. Wage fixing: http://www.cartoonbrew.com/business/pixars-ed-catmull-emerges-as-central-figure-in-the-wage-fixing-scandal-101362.html
  25. My bunker is stocked with 3 years worth of DQ astronaut ice-cream, cherry coke syrup (just add water via my SODA), a dialysis machine from Davita (for when I eventually get diabetes from my wonderful diet), a shrink-wrapped copy of "Security Analysis", and a literal ton of annual reports ready to go! Time to catch up on some reading, 500 hours here I come! :D
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