LC

Because it is the same strategy that people used in the housing market in 2005. The assumption is "the market will keep going up - it has for 100s of years!" Then you are put to.

The way I think of it is like this: First, you have a fair value which you believe BAC is worth. Lets say you think fair value or intrinsic value etc. is $35/share, well then you are buying at 77% of FV and selling at 85% of IV. So I agree with Cardboard this sounds like a pretty decent strategy (or as he put it, one could do much worse). And I think it can be generalized and improved in two ways: 1) Limit this to companies you would 'buy-and-hold' 2) Expand this to multiple companies because really you taking advantage of volatility

To me, it's entertainment. Nobody is changing anyone's mind but treating it like theater is fun and engaging. Some people watch the Kardashians, others watch the news. The only difference between a pleasure and a guilty pleasure is that feeling guilty is no fun :D The rule I set for myself is not allow judgement to bleed over to the other sections of the forum. Do I think it's silly for someone to be religious, or support Trump? Maybe - but that doesn't mean that person can't identify good investment opportunities. Furthermore, take a look at the investment section of this board - how many people here are adhering to something resembling the "25 punchcard" philosophy? Not many I would wager. Within a single day you can see 15-20 different investment ideas being debated just on the first page of that board. And I'll browse them, but 99% simply don't interest me. Not that they aren't profitable potentially, but I like to keep the 'too hard' pile stacked high. So, when 99% of the time is not having anything to add to the investment ideas discussed, the politics section is an area to post and debate something.

Anthem still looks a little expensive, doesn't it? Mind sharing the napkin thesis?

Bamsec is good, rocketfinancial as well is another good one. There was a gentleman on here who I was alpha testing a financial website for, one of the tools he implemented (or tried to, I am not sure what became of it) was a way to individually whitelist/blacklist news sources. Let's say I follow FB - I don't want to see AI generated "news" articles from clickbait websites. But something like crunchbase or other tech-focused websites with quality content, or similar financial websites (WSJ, etc.) - those I would be interested in. Give me the old google finance interface, with the above whitelist news service, and BAMsec/rocketfinancial's management for company filings, and you have the greatest financial website ever created. ;D

Another 75b https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-repo-injects-another-75-billion-into-market-2019-9-1028537926?utm_source=reddit.com

I am not sure. It is a good question. My assumption is their performance mimics stock market performance i.e. where we see Small/Middle market enterprises show more volatile performance under stress. For example, compare the SP500 to the Russell2000 from 2007 to present - SP500 performed "better" in the 2008 period and rebounded more successfully. I would think this behavior translates to real estate performance, as less-capitalized tenants are unable to weather the storm, so to speak. This goes to my question of modifying terms - if your tenant mix is simply not as well capitalized, is it more successful for the REIT to modify their lease terms (lower rental income) and maintain the tenant, or not?

Thanks for the recommendations - have you been able to review the performance of these NNNs under stressed market conditions? How do you view tenant mix and location mix, particularly in terms of correlated risk? If AFFO is the main driver of returns and valuation, the question is what drives AFFO. As you mention the two methods to grow AFFO are rent increases, and acquisitions - but really this means tenant and location mix (i.e. what you acquire and where). The real question is how that tenant mix behaves under stress. In such situations, do you know if REITs typically modify lease terms to work with tenants (and maintain occupancy)? My concern is large exposure to small and middle market businesses which may perform worse in a recession - and while the tenant mix may appear diversified, will it actually behave like a hedge during a recession?

Fed cuts rates again, telegraphs possibility of one more

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/business/overnight-lending-rate-spike-ny-fed/index.html Some notable items: It was the NY Fed's first such rescue operation in a decade, the last occurring in late 2008. The NY Fed announced plans late Tuesday to hold another repurchase agreement operation on Wednesday that would aim to repurchase up to an additional $75 billion. The rate on overnight repurchase agreements hit 5% on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That's up from 2.29% late last week and well above the target range set in July by the Federal Reserve, which is 2% to 2.25%. The surge continued Tuesday, with the overnight rate hitting a high of 10% before the NY Fed stepped in. The catalyst for the stress, according to Cabana, was the fact that US companies withdrew vast sums of money from banks to make quarterly tax payments to the US Treasury Department. That forced banks to draw down their reserves at the Fed.

Always the smuggler, SD! That’s why you’re posts are so interesting, what a great perspective :D I am glad to contribute simply by making the rest of you folks look so good :D I think someone did a similar exercise a few years ago, tracking the investment ideas thread post date vs. stock performance. I think he layered the number of replies into the analysis as well. And the threads with the least replies performed on average better. Also it would be interesting to layer this information vs. self-disclosed annual performance threads.

I hear Dildo is really nice this time of year. A lot of people pushing to get in there. It's a great place to relax, sit down, and watch the world go bi

Should we not discourage predatory lending simply because some people are financially savvy enough to avoid it? How selfish can you be? It’s like someone with HIV saying “don’t bother looking for a cure, it wouldn’t be fair if you found one anyways, since I’ve been taking HIV medication for 30 years!”

GDP is only growing 1-3% year so it does drag.

So I very much agree with you, in fact particularly so on the ethical roadblock (vs the actual investment thesis). In fact I would prefer if they would give up on the vaping, or at least study it more first. By comparison cigarettes are a known quantity. People have been smoking things for, hell, thousands of years and we have been studying the effects for at least decades. With cigarettes, people are making an honest decision (akin to alcohol).

Short term you may see more pressure on PM/MO due to vaping: https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/news/20190826/as-vaping-injuries-grow-doctors-seek-answers

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-people-jeffrey-epstein-cameras/fbi-studies-two-broken-cameras-outside-cell-where-epstein-died-source-idUSKCN1VI2LC This would be believable if it was a ridiculous movie plot and not real life :-\

Well I mean most people already "work now get paid later" i.e. they are paid every two weeks. This is just another disguised form of a payday loan.

Average US median wage is 51k. For teachers it's 56K. I do not think a 10% premium is so extravagant.

Now in terms of the actual classroom experience: Teachers simply cannot impose discipline in their classes. This is an institutional problem and it requires a comprehensive solution. Teachers/administrators must be able to do certain things (suspend students, kick them out of classes, etc.) - but parents should also be enforcing the same. All too often this is lacking. I cannot tell you how many times I have heard stories from teachers about how the problem wasn't even the kid - it was that the parents simply did not care to enforce any work ethic or discipline at home, or would rather threaten to "sue the school" rather than teaching their child to behave himself. In short it is a societal problem with multiple factors. Casually blaming "teachers" in quotes as if they are leeches without a care for students just strikes me as a bit naive and looking for the easiest scapegoat.

According to that article 110K in NYC is "rich". Let me tell you that is simply not the case. Regardless, I simply cannot disparage teachers when the average salary for a US teacher is 58K. So no, I would say these people are riding some gravy train. Like I said, where are the yachts?

I always wonder when these types of criticism are made against a certain "rent-seeking" class: Where are the customer's yachts? These fat-cat teachers, where are their yachts? Do they keep them docked on the private island to make sure they can back the 2004 toyota corolla out of the driveway to work? Here's a pretty accurate representation of what teaching is really like (particularly in large minority urban areas): https://quillette.com/2019/02/10/public-educations-dirty-secret/

SD, the simple solution is to wait say 8 years out-of-school before being allowed to include student loan debt in bankruptcy. You have either built some life for yourself which you will be hesitant to lose in bankruptcy, or you have so few assets that this would be a “legitimate” case. Of course people can try to game this as well by spending 8 years stuffing all these assets in blind trusts or whatnot, but people play that same game with all types of other assets as well.

Drone footage of the FBI raid on Epstein's island:

If Uncle Warren really cared he'd buy me out of my portfolio ;D SNAP could be a decent acquisition. Hell, he could buy NIKE if he wanted.