LC

The Gates AMA you posted is very interesting. He covers quite a bit of topics and is obviously well informed. Good reading.

Only here could we rationalize away a guy who made billions. I mean, how many of today's top "alpha" generators are billionaires? To me, it looks like the guy followed rules 1 & 2 - don't lose money, don't forget rule #1

The rabbi was an avid golfer and played at every opportunity. He was so addicted to the game that he would get withdrawal symptoms if he didn't play. One Yom Kippur the rabbi thought to himself, "What's it going to hurt if I go out during the recess and play a few rounds. Nobody will be the wiser, and I'll be back in time for services." Sure enough, at the end of the morning service, the rabbi snuck out of the synagogue and headed straight for the golf course. Looking down upon the scene were Moses and God. Moses said, "Look how terrible -- a Jew out here alone on Yom Kippur. And even worse! A rabbi!" God replied "Watch. I'm going to teach him a lesson." The rabbi stepped up to the first tee. When he hit the ball, it careened off a tree, struck a rock, skipped across a pond and landed in the hole for a hole in one! Seeing all this, Moses protested. "God, is this how you're going to teach him a lesson? He got a hole in one!" "Sure," said God, "but who's he going to tell?"

Sanjeev, those photos look incredible. Those hotels look awesome. I wish I had seen this earlier - we have a team in Mumbai and I may have been able to justify a trip. Perhaps next year.

IRM

Difficult to get an accurate figure. You can calculate the working capital accounts as a % of revenues or assets, over a period of years (assuming no major change in business operations) to get a general sense of usage. Then you can compare your averages %s to current amounts.

On the statistical side there are excellent YouTube series on all levels of probability and statistics. Ben Lambert has an excellent series on graduate level statistics. I personally prefer video lessons to textbooks but I can recommend texts if you’d like. I would also recommend a textbook in formal logic as accompaniment. Any of the intro to logic texts will do - the Hacking text would be a good starter. I personally find the latter a really useful skillset to have - all the great thinkers had some level of logic/philosophical training, and I find it useful for investment analysis as well.

The shift away from beer doesn't really bother me. Wine, liquor, beer. All have been around for centuries, I'm sure the pendulum has swung back and forth multiple times. Wine and liquor don't create the tavern/pub atmosphere like beer does - there will always be a place for it. I generally like the Coors brand. I think it has a unique value compared to say, Budweiser. This could be my Colorado bias, however. ;D Molson I think it the worst of the Canadian beers but it's like Budweiser - it's the mass market brand. I was at a Habs game and spent my $11 on a Molson or two, when I was last up there. There is something to be said about reliable, consistent, mediocrity :) So it's basically as Liberty said: So it's basically, multiple is low, they have scale, brands should have staying power. Even if it's a bit of a melting ice cube, I think it's different from say, consumer technology brands. Something like Blackberry phones were essentially completely replaced - the ice cube totally melted. Here I think, the brands may have competition, but will not really be replaced. The worse-case scenario is that it takes longer to earn my money back. Lower risk of a permanent loss of capital, perhaps higher risk of a lower return on capital.

It's beer ;D Essentially branded consumer discretionary purchases. They have decent brands (Molson, Coors) and an established distribution network. It's pretty cheap and was 10% off today. While the business may go thru ups-and-downs, especially in terms of management's execution (as we are seeing with other CPG's like Kraft-Heinz), I think product demand will remain relatively more steady (compared to say, Tide detergent).

I did the same.

Hahah for some reason I find goat videos absolutely hilarious. Here's another good one: (bit of foul language in that one)

I really agree with this - I think this is probably the closest one could get to defining "value investing". And I think it's a really philosophical question. We all have the ability to buy or sell any publicly-traded company in their portfolio. So asking which businesses are maximizing the the intrinsic value of your portfolio, is really asking what businesses are providing the most value to society. And then of course the price paid matters, but to me, this is a much broader and more complicated question - and more fun trying to answer.

Haha! For now, yes (to both)...as for tomorrow... ;D ;D

IRM, VZ

Creating prudent incentives within the industry, establishing a global precedent, and making an effort to quantify externalities? Canada, you've done it again! ;D

Thanks for posting. Ashtead looks interesting.

The first two seasons of Benedict Cumberbatch's Sherlock are some of the best TV in the past decade. Jeremy Brett's version is also incredible of course.

Anything you can take out loans against? Margin your stocks, mortgage, etc. etc.

Lesson 1: A man is getting into the shower just as his wife is finishing up her shower when the doorbell rings. The wife quickly wraps herself in a towel and runs downstairs. When she opens the door, there stands Bob, the next door neighbour. Before she says a word, Bob says, “I’ll give you $800 to drop that towel.” After thinking for a moment, the woman drops her towel and stands naked in front of Bob. After a few seconds, Bob hands her $800 dollars and leaves. The woman wraps back up in the towel and goes back upstairs. When she gets to the bathroom, her husband asks,… “Who was that?” “It was Bob the next door neighbour,” she replies. “Great!” the husband says, “Did he say anything about the $800 he owes me?” Moral of the story: If you share critical information pertaining to credit and risk with your shareholders in time, you may be in a position to prevent avoidable exposure. Lesson 2: A sales rep, an administration clerk, and the manager are walking to lunch when they find an antique oil lamp. They rub it and a Genie comes out. The Genie says, “I’ll give each of you just one wish” “Me first! Me first!” says the administration clerk. “I want to be in the Bahamas, driving a speedboat, without a care in the world.” Poof! She’s gone. “Me next! Me next!” says the sales rep. “I want to be in Hawaii, relaxing on the beach with my personal masseuse, an endless supply of Pina Coladas and the love of my life.” Poof! He’s gone. “OK, you’re up,” the Genie says to the manager. The manager says, “I want those two back in the office after lunch.” Moral of the story: Always let your boss have the first say Lesson 3: A priest offered a lift to a Nun. She got in and crossed her legs, forcing her gown to reveal a leg. The priest nearly had an accident. After controlling the car, he stealthily slid his hand up her leg. The nun said,”Father, remember Psalm 129?” The priest removed his hand. But, changing gears, he let his hand slide up her leg again. The nun once again said, “Father, remember Psalm 129?” The priest apologized “Sorry sister but the flesh is weak.” Arriving at the convent, the nun went on her way. On his arrival at the church, the priest rushed to look up Psalm 129. It said, “Go forth and seek, further up, you will find glory.” Moral of the story: If you are not well informed in your job, you might miss a great opportunity Lesson 4 A crow was sitting on a tree, doing nothing all day. A rabbit asked him, ”Can I also sit like you and do nothing all day long?” The crow answered: “Sure, why not.” So, the rabbit sat on the ground below the crow, and rested. A fox jumped on the rabbit and ate it. Moral of the story: To be sitting and doing nothing, you must be sitting very high up Lesson 5: Power of Charisma A turkey was chatting with a bull “I would love to be able to get to the top of that tree,” sighed the turkey, but I haven’t got the energy.” “Well, why don’t you nibble on my droppings?” replied the bull. “They’re packed with nutrients.” The turkey pecked at a lump of dung and found that it gave him enough strength to reach the lowest branch of the tree. The next day, after eating some more dung, he reached the second branch. Finally after a fourth night, there he was proudly perched at the top of the tree. Soon he was spotted by a farmer, who shot the turkey out of the tree. Moral of the story: Bullshit might get you to the top, but it wont keep you there Lesson 6 A little bird was flying south for the winter. It was so cold the bird froze and fell to the ground into a large field. While he was lying there, a cow came by and dropped some dung on him. As the frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung, he began to realize how warm he was. The dung was actually thawing him out! He lay there all warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy. A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate. Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the pile of cow dung, and promptly dug him out and ate him. Moral of the story: Not everyone who shits on you is your enemy Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend And when you’re in deep shit, it’s best to keep your mouth shut!

I'll throw one out - not only probably the best animated series ever, but possibly one of the best TV series ever: Avatar: the Last Airbender

I also joined the MO club slightly after the price drop yesterday. Will be happy to hold for years, but unless there’s future crazy price movement, i am not sure I will be adding more as it is about a 10% position.

I disagree about the opportunity cost because once you learn about a particular stock or business, well that knowledge doesn't go away. Five years later you can use most of it to make a trade decision. So now five years later you can spend that time researching stock Z

I think this is actually where value investing shines: you actually have to learn the business. Maybe you take losses initially due to the factors you mention. But maybe in 3 years you can come back and now the investment decision is easier because you have built up knowledge. The biggest “value” is this built up knowledge.

Romo is easily the best commentator the NFL has

Woof. Rams win it.